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The ivory-billed woodpecker of pigskin
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 13, 2009

We get a lot of emails from readers and the quality varies quite greatly. Most emails tell us that we're ungrateful, ignorant assholes. That seems to be the most consistent theme.
 
We just wish Mom would stop writing.
 
But some readers do send some interesting data around which we try to build stories.
 
A reader named Jim K. Georges of Atlanta wrote to us the other day with some pretty interesting info about San Diego QB Philip Rivers that we published. Jim came back again with some more interesting data about the Cardinals that we thought was worth publishing, too. He tells us that they are the ivory-billed woodpecker of pigskin: an extremely rare bird.
 
Two basic conclusions from his research:
 
ONE – Teams in humble 9-7 Arizona's position in the past have been treated much like Saddam Hussein's Republican Guard was treated by the U.S. Marine Corps back in 2003.
 
TWO – The Cardinals are one of the few teams in all of NFL history that scored more than 400 points and surrendered more than 400 points in the same season. Among this small crew, the 2008 Cardinals are the only team that won a playoff game.
 
Here's Jim:
 
PART ONE
The Cardinals had a +1 point differential this season (427 points scored, 426 points allowed). I did not think too much of it at the time, since I figured they would be one and done. But, as a not-so-wise man once said, "Not so fast, my friend."
 
The Cards are in rarified air: a mediocre team that's one victory away from appearing in their first Super Bowl. That being the case I thought these numbers deserved a closer look.
 
I researched the teams that made it to their respective conference championship games in the Super Bowl Era with the worst point differential. Here's the rogue's gallery.
  • 1978 Oilers, -15 (283-298)
  • 1996 Jaguars, -10 (325-335)
  • 1987 Vikings, +1 (336-335)
  • 2008 Cardinals, +1 (427-426)
  • 2004 Falcons, +3 (340-337)
  • 1977 Vikings, +4 (231-227)
  • 1983 Seahawks, +6 (403-397)
  • 1970 Raiders, +7 (300-293)
Now let's look at how those teams fared in their conference championship games.
  • 1978 Oilers lost at Pittsburgh, 34-5
  • 1996 Jaguars lost at New England, 20-6
  • 1987 Vikings lost at Washington, 17-10
  • 2004 Falcons lost at Philadelphia, 27-14
  • 1977 Vikings lost at Dallas, 23-6
  • 1983 Seahawks lost at LA Raiders, 30-14
  • 1970 Raiders lost at Baltimore Colts, 27-17
You'll notice a few things:
These middling teams all lost in the conference title game, and most lost convincingly (an average loss of 15.1 points). Only the 1987 Vikings were close.
 
Five of the seven losses were to the eventual Super Bowl champions.
 
The Cardinals will be the first team from this group to be playing at home (which is another sign of the bizarre circumstances created by realignment that CHFF discussed the other day).
 
PART TWO
The fact that the Cardinals had scored more than 400 points while allowing more than 400 points seemed odd, as well. My research proved correct: The Cardinals are just the eighth team in NFL history to both score AND allow 400+ points in the regular season. Here's the list with each team's record:
  • 1983 Packers: 429-439 (8-8)
  • 1985 Bengals: 441-437 (7-9)
  • 1985 Chargers: 467-435 (8-8)
  • 1986 Dolphins: 430-405 (8-8)
  • 2000 Rams: 540-471 (10-6), lost wildcard game
  • 2001 Colts: 413-486 (6-10)
  • 2004 Chiefs: 483-435 (7-9)
  • 2008 Cardinals: 427-426 (9-7), two playoff wins so far
You'll notice a few things:
The 2008 Cardinals are the only team from this group to win a playoff game.
 
The 2000 Rams and the 2008 Cardinals are the only teams from this group that had winning records and made it to the playoffs.
 
The 2000 Rams are the all-time shootout (or "over") team. Their games featured 1,011 total points (an average of 63.2 points per game combined). The 2004 Chiefs are a distant second.
 
The 8-8 Cardinals of 2007 almost made the list, too. But with 404 points scored and 399 allowed, they missed the cut by one point.
 
CONCLUSION
The Cardinals are bucking all conventional wisdom based upon the statistics shown in this study. 
 
When you combine the information from Part One above, along with Philadelphia's domination in the all-important Defensive Hog Index (The Eagles were No. 2 this year; Cardinals No. 17), it would indicate that the Cardinals have a real chance of getting blown out on Sunday. It also shows that the Cold, Hard Football Facts could look like geniuses for picking Philadelphia as their pre-season Super Bowl favorite.
 

Maybe the Arizona NFL entry should dump its traditional name, the Cardinals. In fact, they might be better known as the ivory-billed woodpecker of pigskin: an extremely rare bird. At least that's the conclusion of one CHFF Troll who found that there's literally no precedent for a team of Arizona's caliber to find itself here in a conference title game.

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