But in the battle of witlessness that is us against ourselves, it was no small feat.

 

In our wildcard picks on WEEI.com and OpenSports.com, which we made earlier in the week, we had San Diego winning outright over the Colts.

 

But then on New Year's Day, after soaking up the alcohol with a half-dozen donuts and absorbing more information about the game, we looked at what was clearly a sizable advantage in favor of Indy's passing game against San Diego's weak pass defense. So we turned yella and went with the favored Colts.

 

Our logic was sound: after all, when has Peyton Manning and the Colts ever failed to exploit a clear advantage in the playoffs? When have they ever let anybody down in January?

 

Well, we sure learned the hard way. We looked like geniuses everywhere else. We looked like fools (again) in front of you. So, after a wildcard week of ridicule in which we went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread, here's how we see the divisional round: the same way we see 'em everywhere else.

 

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The teams are even in so many ways, except in two key areas: the OL and in QB experience, both of which favor the Titans. The Titans ranked No. 8 in Offensive Hog Index this year, while the Ravens were No. 23 in the same indicator, meaning Tennessee is better equipped to fend off the tough defensive front that each team possesses. On the all-important QB front, Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco is making just his second postseason start, while Tennessee's Kerry Collins is attempting to become the first QB in history to win a playoff game with three different teams. Location also favors the Titans: their lone loss at home this year was a shocking mid-season mulligan against INT machine Brett Favre and the Jets.

 

 

 

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Arizona has made five trips East this year and lost each time, sometimes badly. In this case, the Panthers' two-pronged attack of franchise-record-setting RB DeAngelo Williams and the Jake Delhomme-Steve Smith battery, will shred the suspect Cardinals offense as if it were tasty Carolina champion pulled pork. Delhomme, meanwhile, is the Real Gunslinger – his average of 8.55 YPA in the postseason is an NFL record, while his playoff passer rating of 95.0 is third all-time, behind only Bart Starr (104.8) and Joe Montana (95.6). If ESPN's "pundits" took everything they say about Brett Favre and applied it to Delhomme, they'd be right ... for once.

 

Maybe it's because we picked the Eagles to win the Super Bowl back in August, but they really seem to have what it takes to capture the NFC: they're playing better than the Giants in recent weeks, they match up well as they proved in two meetings this year, and their strong DL (No. 2 in Defensive Hog Index) can stifle New York's ground game at a time when Eli Manning has not been playing particularly well (3 TD passes since Thanksgiving). McNabb showed last week, too, that he can exploit a tough defensive front with his athleticism.

 

This is a real statistical conundrum for us: As noted earlier this week, teams that are better in the Defensive Hog Index have gone 14-1 in the playoffs since we created the indicator last year. The Steelers were No. 1 in Defensive Hog Index this year.  Conversely, the teams that led the league in Passing Yards Per Attempt have reached each of the last three Super Bowls, winning two of them. San Diego led the league this year in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Something's gotta give. In this case, it's the Chargers.

 

Pittsburgh is a flawed team, but so isn't San Diego, or else they would have been better than 8-8 this year. Asking them to travel across country to overcome the league's best defense by almost any measure is too much to ask.