While some teams are hitting high gear, the wheels appear to be coming off for the ATS predictions of a certain pigskin-pumping website.

 

All season long, our Quality Stats have been a great indicator of which teams will emerge victorious on a given NFL weekend. Last week was no exception, as we went 11-4-1 straight up and lifted our overall mark to 101-58-1 (.634).

 

But deciding whether or not those teams will cover the point spread has been a rocky road, as evidenced by our 5-11 effort versus the number in Week 11. We have now skidded to a painful 74-81-5 record on the year.

 

But hell, look at it this way: Blindly following our picks still offers better returns than your 401(k).

 

Putting all of that in our rearview mirror, here's what we see when we look ahead to Week 12:

 

When these teams met in Cincinnati last month, the Steelers won by 28. Although they just fought to a draw with Philly, the Bengals don't inspire much confidence, ranking eighth-worst in both Bendability and Scoreability. Pittsburgh has covered this number in the last three games of the series, and that trend should continue in front of a lathered-up crowd at Heinz Field.

 

Last week, Browns QB Brady Quinn earned his first win in his second career start. On the other sideline, Sage Rosenfels has lost all four games in which he has played significantly this season. The Texans are the league's worst in Bendability, which gives the edge to the revitalized offense of the home team.

 

 

After opening the season with four consecutive wins, the Bills have now equaled that mark with four straight losses. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have run their losing streak to six games, and they rank dead last in our Defensive Hog Index. Marshawn Lynch should follow up Monday night's breakout game with another strong performance.

 

 

The watch to see which team can deliver Tennessee's first loss continues. The Titans have answered every challenge to date, but they may get a severe test from the Jets, who continue to top our Scoreability Index. In a matchup of two literal graybeards, Kerry Collins outduels Brett Favre to keep Tennessee unbeaten.

 

In the first meeting between these teams, the Dolphins unveiled their Wildcat formation to smashing success, routing New England 38-13. Since then, the Patriots have largely been much better on defense, as they sit at No.8 in Bendability – one spot behind Miami. With a chance to reclaim a share of first place in the AFC East if Tennessee holds serve, New England gets revenge with a tough road win.

 

 

Tony Romo will take the field at Texas Stadium for the first time since Oct. 5, when the Cowboys were riding high at 4-1. Now 6-4, Dallas needs to crank up the offense after scoring 14 points or fewer in four straight games. The 49ers should prove quite accommodating, as they rank third-worst in Bendability.

 

 

Remember the wars these two teams used to wage when they were rivals in the NFC Central? Yeah, neither do we. Since joining the NFC South in 2002, the Buccaneers have won the division three times, while the Lions have never finished better than third in the four-team NFC North. But facing a familiar foe – and the former employer of coach Rod Marinelli – may actually provide a spark for Detroit.

 

 

Last week's tie against lowly Cincinnati put the Eagles in the NFC East cellar and in dire straits. They must now face the stingy defense of the Ravens, who boast the third-best Defensive Passer Rating. Ah, but Philly occupies a better position in almost all of our other Quality Stats, indicating that a season-saving road win can be had.

 

 

After consecutive wins in Weeks 6 and 7, the Rams have reverted to their woeful ways, losing their last four games by an average of 23 points. The outlook isn't any brighter for this tilt with the Bears, as both tackle Orlando Pace and running back Steven Jackson are out with injuries. On the other side of the ball, St. Louis will struggle to contain a Chicago attack that ranks fifth in Scoreability.

 

 

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-2)                                                                    

This game apparently means a lot to Troy Williamson, the first-round bust for the Vikings who is now an equally unproductive wideout for the Jaguars (4 catches on the season). He said this week that he'd like to fight former coach Brad Childress at the 50-yard line. Williamson seems unlikely to get his wish or to have any impact on the outcome, which we see going in Minnesota's favor.

 

The pick: Vikings 24, Jaguars 22        

 

The home-standing Panthers cruised to an easy victory in the first meeting, 24-9. So, can they become the first member of the NFC South to win a divisional game on the road this season? Our indicators say "yes." The Falcons are the only winning team that hasn't beaten a Quality Opponent (0-4), and we look for that trend to continue.

 

On opening day, the Broncos went into Oakland and drubbed the hated Raiders by a score of 41-14. But Denver has gone just 5-4 since then, and none of the other wins have been by more than four points. With rookie running back Darren McFadden finally healthy enough to help control the clock, Oakland stands a decent chance of keeping this one close.

 

First-year Redskins coach Jim Zorn returns to the city where he had quarterbacking success as both a player and a mentor. His current protégé, Jason Campbell, should excel against the Seahawks, who are fifth-worst in Defensive Passer Rating. Following two losses sandwiched around a bye, Washington gets its first November win.

 

 

As a Giants rookie in 2004, Eli Manning sat behind Kurt Warner for the first nine games. Four years later, Manning is the reigning Super Bowl MVP and Warner is a favorite to claim his third league MVP. In this showdown between the two highest-scoring teams in the NFC, we'll take the one getting more than a field goal at home.

 

NBC had the option of switching to a different game for Sunday night, but the network stuck with this rematch of last year's divisional playoffs – despite San Diego's losing record. At 4-6, the Chargers are playing the first of three straight home games that could sink or salvage their season. With the Colts ranking at least 10 spots lower in both Bendability and Scoreability, we'll give a slight edge to the desperate home team.

 

This Monday Night Football showdown features two .500 teams that have identical 1-4 records in our Quality Standings. Partially due to an opportunistic defense, the Packers rank first in our Big Play Index and second in Scoreability. The Saints, meanwhile, are tops in Passing Yards Per Attempt, but their prolific air attack may not be enough to pump up their sagging playoff hopes.