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No anomaly: Warner on another record pace
Cold, Hard Football Facts cor November 11, 2008
Records are, by their very nature, statistical anomalies.
And whenever you see a statistical anomaly, especially in football, you usually see extenuating circumstances. The examples are many. The L.A. Rams, for example, set the NFL scoring record (38.8 PPG) in 1950, playing five of their 12 games against teams imported from the second-rate AAFC, two of which were so poor they soon folded.
One of these anomalies that jumps out today is former Cincinnati quarterback Ken Anderson’s single-season completion percentage record of 70.55 that he set in 1982.
That record is in jeopardy today. Kurt Warner, on the heels of Arizona’s 29-24 win over San Francisco Monday night, is now on pace to erase Anderson's mark.
Warner entered Monday's game completing 69.9 percent of his passes. After a 32 of 42 performance (76.2 percent), he’s surpassed – by the slightest margin – Anderson’s record pace.
- Anderson completed 218 of 309 attempts in 1982 – a rate of 70.55 percent.
- Warner has now completed 238 of 337 attempts in 2008 – a rate of 70.62 percent.
The anomaly that helped propel Anderson to his completion percentage record was the players' strike in 1982. As a result, Anderson and the Bengals played just nine games that season (the previous record holder, Sammy Baugh, completed 70.3 percent of his passes in the 10-game 1945 season).
The law of averages tells us that it would have been difficult for Anderson to maintain that pace if he had played seven more games in 1982. It's worth noting, though, that Anderson completed a personal-best (for a full season) 66.7 percent of his passes in 1983. (As the Cold, Hard Football Facts have long noted, Anderson deserves to be in the Hall of Fame well ahead of quarterbacks such as Warren Moon and Dan Fouts.)
So the law of averages also tells us that it will be difficult for Warner to maintain his record completion percentage over the next seven games.
But seeing that he’s now played nine games – the same number Anderson played in 1982 – it gives us a matched set to compare.
Here’s how the two seasons stack up:
- Warner 2008 – 238 of 337 (70.62%), 2,760 yards, 19 TD, 6 INT, 106.4 passer rating
- Anderson 1982 – 218 of 309 (70.55%), 2,495 yards, 12 TD, 9 INT, 95.3 passer rating
On an even playing field, Warner has already exceeded Anderson's record 1982 season by every measure. Warner also has an outside shot at setting several other single-season records, including completions (440 by Drew Brees in 2007) and yards (5,084 by Dan Marino in 1984). He's currently on pace to complete 423 passes for 4,907 yards.
Whether Warner reaches any of these records remains to be seen, of course. But the schedule is favorable. With the exception of games against the Giants and Eagles, Warner faces few top pass defenses. In fact, he still has three games to play against Seattle (twice) and St. Louis, two of the worst pass defenses in football (as measured by Defensive Passer Rating, our preferred method of rating pass defenses).
So there's still plenty of opportunity for Warner to pad the stats and to prove that the first nine games of the 2008 season, or the first few seasons of his prolific career, were no anomaly.
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