Damn that pesky point spread! Evidently, there's a reason why Vegas is so prosperous, and why we continue to wallow in our own filth and misery, our sad lives buoyed only by our devotion to the bottle and to chunky young ladies.

 

The good news is that we continue to pick straight-up winners at an impressive clip. Another 10-4 week has us sitting at 28 games over .500, proud owners of a 72-44 mark (.621).

 

The bad news is that we haven't fared nearly as well against the spread. With two games landing right on the number, we finished Week 8 at 5-7-2 and sank back below .500 on the season at 55-57-4. (If it read 55-57-54, those numbers would sound a lot like the measurements of the chicks we used to, ahem, "date").

 

Here's how we see Week 9 taking shape:

Bouncing back from their giveaway loss to Indy, the Texans have won three straight, each time more convincingly. The Vikings, meanwhile, split their four games before the bye, with both victories being by a field goal or less. The points look generous here, especially since Houston ranks eighth in Offensive Hog Index and ninth in Passing Yards Per Attempt.

 

 

The 0-8 Bengals have lost by progressively larger margins for six straight weeks (3, 8, 9, 12, 28, 29). The Jaguars may be 3-4, but at least all of their losses have been by a touchdown or less. Relying on a defense that ranks ninth in Bendability, Jacksonville should get the cover if it exceeds 20 points.

 

 

Both of these teams had to give up compensation to get their current coaches. Jon Gruden delivered a championship in his first year in Tampa, and the Bucs surrender the second-fewest points per game. Herman Edwards has a 14-24 record since arriving in Kansas City, and the Chiefs are the only team that hasn't reached triple digits in points scored this season (99). Currently second-worst in Scoreability, Kansas City should reclaim the cellar.

 

Since suffering a 28-10 loss to Baltimore in Week 3, the Browns have won three of four to get back into the AFC North race. They have quietly risen to the second spot in Bendability, largely due to improved red-zone defense. The Ravens are similarly tough on D, ranking third-best in Defensive Passer Rating, but we'll side with the vengeful home team in this rematch.

 

 

Of the nine teams with at least five victories this season, Buffalo is the only one that hasn't beaten a Quality Opponent yet. In fact, the Bills lost by 24 to the Cardinals (their lone foe with a winning record), who lost by 21 to the Jets. We won't use the transitive property to pick a 45-point win by Gang Green, by our numbers indicate that an upset isn't out of the question.                                    

 

 

For the fourth time since joining the Cardinals, Kurt Warner returns to the city where he won a championship. He was victorious in his three previous trips but only participated in two, with last year's appearance coming in relief of the injured Matt Leinart. The trend of success should continue here, as Arizona leads the league in points per game and ranks seventh in Scoreability.

 

 

For a rivalry game in the NFC North, this seems like too big of a spread. Granted, the Lions are winless, but they have been competitive in three straight contests – since getting embarrassed by these Bears, 34-7, in Week 5. Against the league's fourth-worst pass defense, Detroit should do enough to stay within the number.

 

 

In front of a national audience on Monday night, the inspired Titans remained undefeated and stayed atop our Bendability Index. Now they have had a short week to prepare for a rested Packers team that tops our Scoreability Index. Something has to give, and Green Bay possesses enough weapons to pull off the shocker.

 

 

The Dolphins have shown significant improvement on offense, as evidenced by their No. 3 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt. But the Broncos have more playmakers in the passing game, and they've had two weeks to stew about their 41-7 pasting by the Patriots. Having won three of four home games, Denver should continue to play well at Mile High.

The pick: Broncos 27, Dolphins 22      

 

This is the much-anticipated showdown between Mike Smith and Tom Cable. (They're the two head coaches.) The Falcons were denied a chance to rally last week because Smith had used all of his timeouts and thus couldn't challenge a bogus muffed punt call. They should take their frustrations out on a Raiders squad that has averaged fewer than 10 points per game under Cable.

 

In their two games with Brad Johnson under center, the Cowboys have managed just 14 and 13 points. Although they limited Tampa Bay to field goals in delivering a victory last week, the team still ranks fifth-worst in Bendability. The Giants have the league's best ground game, which will allow them to control the clock and wear down the Dallas defense.

 

The Eagles have gotten healthy and are coming on strong, claiming the top spot in our Big Play Index. The Seahawks, meanwhile, lack explosiveness on offense without Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback. Philly fans, basking in the glow of a World Series victory, can keep the party going.

 

 

This matchup of perennial AFC powers has lost a lot of its luster. The Colts have fallen to 3-4, becoming a middling team on offense; the Patriots are somehow 5-2 despite a rash of injuries. The likely returns of running back Joseph Addai and safety Bob Sanders should give Indy the edge, but New England will keep it close.

 

The Redskins' greatest strength is ball control, but they may have met their match. Clinton Portis, who leads the league in rushing by a whopping 260 yards, must now oppose the third-ranked run defense (No. 1 overall). Pittsburgh should be able to grind out a tough win.