Alright, we’re throwing down the gauntlet. In Week 6, our picks will go at least 9-5 against the spread, or you get the rest of the season … ABSOLUTELY FREE!

 

We’ve resorted to some Stu Feiner tactics in the wake of stumbling to a 5-8-1 ATS record last week. Even though our selections are “for entertainment purposes only,” we hold ourselves to a high standard, and being sub-.500 doesn’t cut it.

 

For the season, we are now just 34-38-2 ATS. We've fared much better straight up (hey, we have to cling to something) where a 7-7 mark last week has us sitting at 45-29 overall. Here’s how we see the Week 6 games playing out:

The first game of the Tom Cable Era sees the Raiders making the long trip to the Big Easy, where the Saints are still trying to figure out how they lost on Monday night. New Orleans tops many of the league’s offensive categories, including Passing Yards Per Attempt. Even coming off a bye week, Oakland won't be able to score enough points to keep pace.

 

 

The team that moved from Cleveland to Baltimore takes on the team that moved from Baltimore to Indy. While each has won a Super Bowl this decade, both appear to be far removed from their days of dominance. The Ravens lead the league in Defensive Passer Rating, which will serve them well against Peyton Manning and company.

 

 

After throwing a career-high six touchdown passes, Brett Favre has had an extra week to rest an arm that turned 39 today. He and the Jets face a Bengals D that surrenders 24 points per game and ranks third-worst in Defensive Hog Index. New York should continue to soar and score.

 

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-1½)                         

For the next spin of Tampa’s quarterback roulette wheel, the ball will probably land back in the hands of Jeff Garcia. The Buccaneers have thrown the ball more than any team (205 times), but they are eighth-worst in Passing Yards Per Attempt. The more efficient Panthers can eke out a road win.

 

 

Should the Vikings be a 2-TD favorite over anybody? Well, maybe if the toothless Lions are coming to town. Detroit ranks in the bottom five for numerous statistical categories, including dead last in Defensive Passer Rating and Big Play Index. Minnesota should be able to pound its NFC North foe into submission.

 

 

In compiling identical 3-2 records, neither of these squads has beaten a team that is currently above .500, going 0-2 against Quality Opponents. Both have lost to Carolina and Tampa Bay, but the Bears have been far more competitive in those games. Expect Chicago to prove it is a notch better.

 

 

Following last week’s late-game turnover fiasco by Sage Rosenfels, Matt Schaub returns to play quarterback for the Texans. He goes against a Dolphins defense that is fifth-worst in Defensive Passer Rating. Houston has won all three meetings – by 1, 2 and then 3 points – and we may see form hold in this one.

 

 

With back-to-back road wins against NFC East rivals Dallas and Philly, the Redskins have served notice that they are a contender. The Rams, on the other hand, have been atrocious by any statistical measure. Still, new St. Louis coach Jim Haslett has had two weeks to prepare, and Washington is in a prime letdown spot.

 

 

The Broncos were an offensive juggernaut at the beginning of the year, but they have scored just one touchdown in each of the past two games. The going doesn’t figure to get much easier against the Jaguars, who are a top-10 team in Bendability. We’ll take the points in a game that could be decided by a field goal.

 

 

Philadelphia (-4½) at San Francisco               

With running back Brian Westbrook missing one game and being limited in the other, the Eagles have lost two straight. A couple broken ribs may again sideline him in San Francisco, but this game should be decided by the Philly defense. The Eagles share the lead league for sacks (18), and the 49ers have surrendered the most (20).

 

This line must be a reflection of the perceived home-field advantage at noisy Qwest Field. It certainly isn’t indicative of performance, since the Packers have been better in virtually every facet of the game. Seattle’s only win this season came at home against the moribund Rams, but even the vaunted “12th Man” won’t be enough to overcome Green Bay.

 

Last season’s two finalists in the AFC have struggled in the early going, with a loss to Miami being the low point for both. The Chargers are second-best in Scoreability, trailing only the Jets, who have played one game fewer. That potential for points could pose problems for the Patriots, as their defense has looked mediocre.

 

 

The defending champs have been absolutely dominant so far, outscoring their opponents by a league-best average of 19.5 points per game. Three of their four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 1-12, and now they take on the 1-3 Browns. Expect more of the same on Monday night.