We post our picks on Friday each week so that those of you who participate in friendly office pools (or other forms of NFL, ahem, "recreation") can consider our analysis.

 

Of course, there sometimes are developments prior to kickoff that leave us wanting to make changes. A prime example in Week 4 was the game-day announcement that Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer would sit against Cleveland and be replaced at quarterback by the inexperienced Ryan Fitzpatrick.

 

We had to live with our published Bengals pick, and it cost us both straight up, where we ended up going 8-5, and against the spread, where we posted a 6-7 mark.

 

Still not very hot, is it?

 

For the season, we are 38-22 straight up and 29-30-1 ATS. Looking to climb back over .500, here’s our take on the games for Week 5:

Because of hurricane damage, the roof will be open at Reliant Stadium as the Texans finally play their first home game of the season. Houston’s road odyssey has resulted in three losses and a league-worst ranking in Bendability. The once-mighty Colts are a fourth-quarter comeback away from being 0-3 themselves, but the bye week should have helped them find more offensive rhythm.

 

Both of these teams are known for their staunch defense, but a closer look reveals a decided edge for the Titans. As we mentioned in our write-up of the Bendability Index, Tennessee easily tops the category, while Baltimore is eighth-worst. Still, the Ravens have allowed just two offensive touchdowns, so field goals are likely to figure prominently.

 

 

The Dolphins have had an extra week to prepare while basking in the glow of the first win of the Tony Sparano Era. They now host the favored Chargers, who must fly across the country for a game at 10 a.m. body-clock time. We always like taking the points in that scenario, especially when the home team has a better record against Quality Opponents (Miami, 1-0; San Diego, 0-2).

 

The Chiefs have gotten back to their power running game, with Larry Johnson putting up 319 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. The Panthers, meanwhile, have begun stretching the field vertically, with Steve Smith being reintegrated into the offense. Look for the “rushing ’dog” to stay within the number here.

 

 

The Redskins recorded their third win in as many weeks, and the upset of Dallas had coach Jim Zorn leading his team in “hip, hip, hoorays.” Really, Jim? The celebrating is unlikely to continue against the Eagles, who lead the league in sacks and top our Defensive Hog Index.

 

 

In defeating Philly, Bears quarterback Kyle Orton threw three touchdown passes for the first time in his four-year career. He now gets to face a Lions D that ranks dead last in Defensive Passer Rating. A vastly superior defense will help Chicago maintain at least a share of the NFC North lead – and keep Detroit winless.

 

 

The uncertain status of Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a dislocated throwing shoulder in the loss to Tampa Bay, has this game off the board. We expect the QB to play and the Packers to be favorites of about a touchdown (as they were on the opening line). We also expect Atlanta, the top team on our Big Play Index, to keep it competitive.

 

 

A week off has helped Seattle get healthy at wide receiver, as both Deion Branch and Bobby Engram should make their season debuts. They will bolster an offense that has averaged a meager 4.91 Passing Yards Per Attempt but still ranks eighth in Scoreability. The Giants, on the other hand, will be minus top wideout Plaxico Burress, who was suspended for violating team rules.

 

As prolific as the Broncos have been offensively, they have been equally inept on the other side of the ball. They rank in the bottom five for both Defensive Hog Index and Defensive Passer Rating. Tampa Bay checks in at No. 2 in our Relativity Index, giving us reason to believe that they could pull off the upset.

 

 

The Patriots have had two weeks to lick their wounds after a troubling home loss to Miami. The 49ers are likewise coming off a one-sided defeat. New England has never won in San Francisco (0-4), but an embarrassed defense that still ranks fourth in Bendability could rectify that.

 

There may be no more balanced team in the league right now than the Bills, who are No. 2 in Bendability and No. 3 in Scoreability. They face an offense-dependent Cardinals squad that just surrendered 56 points to the Jets and ranks near the bottom in almost every defensive category. In a game that looks too obvious, it’s hard not to side with Buffalo.

 

The stunning 16½-point spread is indicative of the futility of the Cincy organization. Having seen their record fall to 0-4, the Bengals decided that another high-character guy was needed. Enter running back Cedric Benson, who was released by the Bears because of several off-the-field incidents. He doesn’t figure to be the solution to Cincy’s fifth-worst ranking in Scoreability, especially since Palmer’s elbow injury is a lingering concern. The Cowboys will take out their frustrations from last week’s home loss.

 

Ben Roethlisberger has taken a pounding this season, getting sacked an AFC-high 15 times. It therefore shouldn’t come as a surprise that Pittsburgh ranks dead last in our Offensive Hog Index. It's a sad state of affairs for an organization, not to mention a fanbase, that takes great pride in its old-school-style ground game. The Steelers are also down to their third running back, which threatens to make them one-dimensional against the Jaguars.

 

 

The Monday night matchup is a study in offensive contrasts. The Saints attack through the air, leading the league in passing yards per game and, more importantly, in Passing Yards Per Attempt; the Vikings prefer to pound it on the ground. Minnesota won’t be able to score enough points to keep pace with the New Orleans aerial circus.