Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: The case for drafting wide receivers

The case for drafting wide receivers
Cold, Hard Football Facts for April 24, 2008

Ah, the NFL Draft, a time in which dreams are made, teams are built and fans are given the excuse to sit on their couch for eight hours.

With that bliss, however, comes a number of misconceptions, including the common theory that most wide receivers taken in the first round turn into busts while the late rounds of the draft are full of stars waiting to happen.

While it’s true a number of good receivers have been plucked from late rounds in recent drafts, including seventh-rounders Donald Driver and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the fact remains that first-round receivers as a whole are far more productive than receivers taken later.

Since 1997 teams have drafted a total of 328 wide receivers, with 47 taken in the first round. Those 47 first-rounders have eclipsed the 1,000-yard receiving mark a combined 42 times. Conversely, none of the 88 players drafted in the fifth or sixth rounds have surpassed 1,000 yards in a single season.

Even perceived first-round busts such as Koren Robinson and Rod Gardner have 1,000-yard receiving seasons on their resumes.

Still it goes beyond 1000 yard seasons as first round receivers are more productive across the board. Here's a look at the production of wide receivers since 1997, based upon draft round. (You can tool around with a series of spreadsheets here, including one page that lists the production of every receiver taken over this period.)

RECEIVERS PRODUCTION by DRAFT ROUND (1997-2007)

Rd.	Rec Avg	Yards Avg	YPC	TD Avg	Rec	Yards	TDs	Seasons	1000-Yard Seasons	Players Drafted
1	43.3	613.2	13.8	4.0	9320	131840	855	215	42	47
2	31.9	433.6	13.3	2.3	7213	97998	530	226	14	45
3	28.0	366.6	11.4	2.3	4516	59017	372	161	18	45
4	22.1	304.0	11.3	1.8	3807	52280	306	172	11	45
5	9.6	131.7	7.9	0.8	1198	16464	95	125	0	42
6	10.3	134.3	7.8	0.7	1177	15315	76	114	0	46
7	12.5	163.3	8.5	0.9	2060	26945	153	165	9	58

As you can see, first-round receivers are more productive across the board and in most cases it's not even close. Still, the greater production shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone: first-round picks are probably the most talented and are generally given more opportunities to play. What may be a bit of a surprise is the lack of production from receivers taken after the fourth round.

We remember the success stories like Driver and Houshmandzadeh, but they're the rare exceptions, not the rule.

Driver (503 receptions, 6,977 yards, 38 TDs) and Houshmandzadeh (415 receptions, 4,878 yards, 33 TDs) are by far the most productive seventh-round receivers of the past 10-plus years, while Bobby Shaw (197 receptions, 2,784 yards, 14 TDs) and Corey Bradford (215 receptions, 3,346 yards, 25 TDs) have been the best receivers taken in the sixth and fifth rounds, respectively.

Of the 10 most productive receivers since 1997 eight are first day picks, including the two most productive, former first-round selections Randy Moss and Torry Holt.

So, sure, first-round receivers frequently go bankrupt. But if you need or want a productive receiver, you're best bet is still to take one high in the draft.