Cold, Hard Football Facts for the week of Nov. 4-10
Quality wins work best as an upset indicator or as a way to get a better grip on skewed spreads. The betting public is often enamored with a particular team that puts up a lot of points against weak opponents but that has difficulty beating good teams. These teams will often be listed as heavy favorites against more capable opponents.
Last year, Kansas City was one of those teams that the betting public loved but that struggled against quality opponents. Indy has become one of those teams this year while Seattle, a pre-season favorite to go to the Super Bowl, has yet to beat a single quality team.
In contrast, there are teams that fail to impress the betting public, but that just seem to perform well against tough opponents. New England set the bar high in this category during its 21-game win streak, when it beat an unheard of 12 straight quality opponents and bested the spread 16 times.
It remains to be seen if New England will continue to be one of those teams following its first loss in more than a year. Kansas City, meanwhile, has had a reversal of fortune since last year. Despite early struggles, the Chiefs have proven quite capable this season of beating tough opponents.
These perceptions – positive and negative – will often skew spreads either way. The quality wins quotient can help give you a better perception of the relative strength of two teams.
Last week, we predicted outright victories by three underdogs. We got just one right. But we're confident in the performance of the quality wins quotient over the course of the season. The quality wins quotient does not indicate a single upset this week. But there are a handful of games on the schedule in which we feel quality wins indicate a trend one way or the other.
Kansas City (-3) at Tampa Bay
Kansas City (3-4; three quality wins, Baltimore, Atlanta, Indy); Tampa Bay (2-5; zero)
KC has lit up three quality opponents in the last four weeks, beating the spread in each game. (There was a quality loss at Jacksonville sandwiched in between the victories.) Tampa Bay has trouble against bad opponents, let alone good ones, and will not stay within a field goal.
New Orleans at San Diego (-6)
New Orleans (3-4; one, St. Louis); San Diego (4-3; two, Houston, Jacksonville)
San Diego's at home, has a better record, and more quality wins. A six-point spread is not that daunting against a New Orleans team that has given up nearly 200 points in just seven games.
New England (-2½) at St. Louis
New England (6-1; three, Indy, Seattle, N.Y. Jets); St. Louis (4-3; one, Seattle)
A slew of injuries could be disruptive for the Patriots, but it doesn't change the fact that they're simply a much better team. New England has three quality wins, a better offense and a better defense. The Rams' lone quality win came against Seattle, a team without a quality victory.
Philly (-1) at Pittsburgh
Philly (7-0; four, N.Y. Giants, Minnesota, Detroit, Baltimore); Pittsburgh (6-1; one, NE)
Philly leads the league in quality wins, but this is tougher to call than it looks because there's a big difference between the quality of the AFC and NFC. The Eagles have struggled against two mediocre AFC opponents this year. They're also on the road, where Pittsburgh's one quality win ended the longest win streak in NFL history. We'll stand by the quality wins indicator. But a Pittsburgh win will confirm that the 2004 Super Bowl champion will come out of the AFC.
Washington at Detroit (-3½)
Washington (2-5; zero); Detroit (4-3; three, Houston, Atlanta, N.Y. Giants)
Philly is the only team in the NFL with more quality victories than Detroit, but the Lions lost badly on the road against a questionable Dallas team last week. Look for the Lions to rebound at home against a Washington team that can't beat anybody, let alone good teams.
