Will the wind ever remember the games it has blown in the past?

 

This slight variation of the musical question posed by Jimi Hendrix seems particularly appropriate as we await the kickoff of Super Bowl XLII. The psychedelic guitar legend understood how some important details could be forgotten.

 

(Then again, maybe those lyrics were just drug-induced.)

 

With the hordes having descended upon Arizona this week, it’s as if the media is in a collective purple haze. Much of their coverage has amounted to a lot of hot air. In trying to get a gauge on the Patriots and Giants, many of the pathetic “pundits” have lacked any real direction. One of their pervading themes is that the New England offense has cooled off since its scorching-hot scoring pace of the first half of 2007, giving the Giants a shot in the mismatch of the century.

 

Fortunately, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are like another 60s icon: They know which way the wind blows.

 

Nearly lost amid New England’s quest to go 19-0 is this pertinent pigskin point: Tom Brady’s three worst games this season have come when there were gusts of over 20 miles per hour.

 

In case you were wondering, no tempest is expected in Glendale on Sunday. The forecast calls for a typically mild day in the desert, with light-to-moderate winds. Plus, if inclement weather does become a factor, University of Phoenix Stadium is equipped with a retractable roof.

 

All of this is bad news for Big Blue. The Giants would be much better off if a big wind blew.

 

While the details might not always be remembered, the wind has blown significantly in just three of the Patriots’ games this season, including their AFC championship victory over the Chargers. Not coincidently, Brady has posted his three lowest passer ratings in those contests. Here’s a breakdown:

 

Opponent (Result)	Date	High Wind	Comp.	Att.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
N.Y. Jets (W, 20-10)	12/16/07	27 MPH	14	27	51.9	140	0	1	51.5
San Diego (W, 21-12)	1/20/08	22 MPH	22	33	66.7	209	2	3	66.4
Baltimore (W, 27-24)	12/3/07	27 MPH	18	38	47.4	257	2	1	76.3

 

Brady’s passing proficiency has also had a direct correlation to scoring. In each of the three windy games, the Patriots failed to reach 28 points. The only other time they fell short of that mark was their 24-point effort against the defending-champion Colts.

 

Analyzing all of the games from the regular season and the playoffs, a dramatic scoring disparity is seen when you consider whether or not the conditions were conducive to throwing the ball:

Brady’s struggles with blustery conditions should come as no surprise. Of the many disadvantages that accompany playing football in the elements, most quarterbacks will tell you that wind is the toughest. It affects the flight of the ball much more than precipitation does.

 

But the chart below shows exactly how much of an impact the wind has had:

 

Conditions	No. of Games	Comp.	Att.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
Winds > 20 MPH	3	54	98	55.1	606	4	5	66.1
Winds < 20 MPH	15	392	541	72.5	4,671	51	6	125.2

 

Brady’s passer rating jumps 59 points when wind isn’t a factor. And his touchdown-to-interception ratio becomes a staggering 8.5-to-1.

 

Now, let’s look at it in terms of his average game:

 

Conditions	Comp.	Att.	Pct.	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rating
Winds > 20 MPH	18	33	54.5	202	1.3	1.7	64.7
Winds < 20 MPH	26	36	72.2	311	3.4	0.4	125.1

The numbers again hit you like an arctic blast. Brady has averaged over 100 more passing yards in games without appreciable wind. He also has thrown exactly three more touchdowns (3.4) than interceptions (0.4) on a per-game basis.

 

With three rings and multiple passing records, Brady has already reached a level of stardom that even Hendrix would have envied. And given the near-ideal weather conditions that are expected for the Super Bowl, it’s conceivable that the Patriots could breeze to yet another championship.

 

If they do, it will again raise the question: Has Brady reached best-QB-ever status?

 

That subject will probably be debated into the early hours of Monday morning … after all the sacks are in the box score and the “pundit” clowns have all gone to bed.

Subscribe to RSS	XML