March 19 2010
Forums
CHFF Archives Power Rankings Charts & Lists
About Us Pigskin Detention Gridiron Glossary
Advertise
Email Us Pigskin & Sausage Links CHFF Store
Coming soon
Subscribe to our RSS
AFC TEAM PAGES EAST Buffalo BillsMiami DolphinsNew England PatriotsNew York Jets SOUTH Indianapolis ColtsHouston TexansJacksonville JaguarsTennesse Titans NORTH Cincinnati BengalsCleveland BrownsBaltimore RavensPittsburgh Steelers WEST Denver BroncosKansas City ChiefsOakland RaidersSan Diego Chargers
NFC TEAM PAGES EAST Dallas Cowboys New York GiantsPhiladelphia EaglesWashington Redskins SOUTH Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersNew Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers NORTH Chicago BearsDetroit LionsGreen Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings WEST Arizona CardinalsSt. Louis RamsSan Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
Home >> Archive
Email  |  Print

Done with mirrors
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 31, 2008

By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts mirrorcle worker
 
The phrase “Done with Mirrors” means different things to different trolls.
 
To our young readers, “done with mirrors” means party-time with the Colombian medicine man. To our middle-aged readers, “Done With Mirrors” means a real shitty Aerosmith album – the one they made right after they quit drugs and lost all their rocking creativity, but right before they turned into a pussy chick band.
 
And to the folks who actually convened this meeting of trolls – that would be us – “done with mirrors” reminds us of the postseason run of the New York Giants.
 
After breaking down each of their playoff games, we still don’t know how the Giants made it to the Super Bowl. The things they did well in the regular season they’ve done poorly in the playoffs. And the things they've done well in the playoffs they did poorly in the regular season.
 
In fact, looking at their playoff run is like walking through a circus hall of mirrors or reading about the sexual exploits of our readers. It’s difficult to separate reality from illusion.
 
But with the soul-less strains of “Shela” providing the backdrop, we’ve begun to figure it all out.
 
Reality: The real secret to New York’s playoff success is its pass defense
Naturally, the biggest football story of the Super Bowl has been overlooked by everybody but the Cold, Hard Football Facts. Hell, even that naughty hottie from TV Azteca missed this one.
 
And, naturally, it’s the passing game that proves the difference between victory and defeat – as it always does in NFL football.
 
The performance of New York’s pass defense is the great untold story of its postseason run.
  • The Giants allowed an 83.4 Defensive Passer Rating during the regular season, far and way the worst among any playoff contender.
  • The Giants have allowed a 65.1 Defensive Passer Rating to the firm of Garcia, Romo & Favre in the playoffs.
  • The Giants surrendered 7.01 yards per pass attempt during the regular season, again worst among any playoff contender.
  • They Giants have surrendered just 5.64 yards per pass attempt in the playoffs.
New York’s rise from worst pass defense in the regular season to the best in the playoffs is especially shocking when you consider that two of its postseason opponents – Dallas and Green Bay – ranked No. 2 and 3, respectively, in passing offense in 2007.
 
That’s championship-caliber football by any measure.
 
To put the performance in perspective, New York’s 65.1 Defensive Passer Rating and 5.64 yards per pass attempt allowed are better than any defense performed throughout the 2007 season. The Chargers led the NFL with a 70.0 Defensive Passer Rating and the Steelers led the league allowing just 5.72 yards per pass attempt.
 
It also sets up a classic Super Bowl match-up that will prove the difference between victory and defeat: New York’s suddenly lights-out pass defense against perhaps the greatest passing attack in NFL history – one that shredded the Giants for 8.5 YPA and a 116.8 passer rating when they met one month ago.
 
To the winner of that rematch will go the Lombardi Trophy.
 
Illusion: The Giants have won with their punishing ground game
The 1-2 punch of bowling ball Brandon Jacobs and mighty mite Ahmad Bradshaw has been highly unproductive in the playoffs, especially relative to their regular-season efforts.
 
New York’s ground game:
  • has averaged a disappointing 3.52 YPA in the postseason
  • averaged a rock-solid 4.58 YPA in the regular-season, fourth best in the NFL.
  • Has averaged a disappointing 108.0 YPG in the postseason
  • Averaged a rock-solid 134.2 YPG in the regular season, again fourth best in the NFL.
To put New York’s 3.52 YPA and 108 YPG in the playoffs into perspective, compare it to New England’s 4.9 YPA and 147.0 YPG in the playoffs.
 
Jacobs, meanwhile, gave New York its most productive postseason effort with 67 yards and 1 TD on 21 attempts against Green Bay (this isn’t Jim Brown we’re talking about, folks). And the longest run by either Jacobs or Bradshaw over the past three games is 12 yards.
 
Laurence Maroney, meanwhile, has given New England two of its most productive rushing efforts of the season with 122 yards in each of his two playoff games. He also boasts several runs longer than the 12-yard long of New York’s top ball carriers.
 
For all the hand-wringing of the "pundits," it's the Patriots who enter the Super Bowl with the more highly productive postseason ground attack.
 
Reality: Eli’s 0 picks are the No. 1 reason the Giants are in the Super Bowl
By now, this is well-tread territory by the Cold, Hard Football Facts and everyone else. And it’s one of the few times the Super Bowl storyline has some statistical merit.
 
Don’t throw picks, win football games. NFL football is no more difficult to analyze than that little pigskin proverb.
 
And in Eli Manning's case, his three games without a pick remain the single-most important reason why the Giants have gone three games without a loss. It’s just the second three-game streak without a pick in his four-year career (the other came back in 2005) and the importance of not throwing an INT cannot be underestimated.
 
Manning has now started 60 games for the Giants, with a record of 33-27. The Giants are:
  • 13-4 when he does not throw an INT
  • 20-23 when he throws at least 1 INT
Obviously, there's a clear relationship between INTs and defeat. The Giants can't even win 50 percent of their games if Manning throws a single pick or more. As we noted earlier this week, he simply can't afford to throw an INT against the New England juggernaut.
 
Illusion: The Giants have made big plays on third down
This is one of the more curious aspects on New York’s playoff run and more evidence that it’s been done with mirrors.
 
You would think that the Giants have stayed alive against seemingly superior opponents by piecing together long drives, eating up the clock and converting a lot of third downs. And, on defense, by forcing opponents into one three-and-out after another.
 
But you'd be wrong.
 
New York’s opponents have actually outperformed the Giants on third downs on both offense and defense. And in both cases the Giants underperformed their regular-season averages.
 
The Giants have converted 15 of 37 third downs (40.5%) in the playoffs. It’s just shy of their 41.6-percent rate (91 of 219) in the regular season.
 
But New York’s three playoff victims have somehow converted 20 of 40 (50%) third-down attempts – that’s far below the performance of the Giants defense in the regular season, when opponents converted just 73 of 211 attempts (34.6%).
 
The Giants had their best postseasonday in the NFC title game, when they held Green Bay and the gunslinger to just 1 of 10 on third downs. But New York’s first two playoff opponents – Tampa and Dallas – converted a ridiculous 19 of 30 (63.3%) third-down attempts. The Cowboys even pieced together a single drive of 10:28 against the Giants, the longest by any team in any playoff game this year.
 
Yet the Bucs and Cowboys converted all this third-down success into just 31 total points and two losses.
 
Reality: New York’s pass rush has been MIA
The Giants boasted the league’s best pass rush in 2007, sacking opposing passers 53 times in the regular season.
 
It’s been missing in action here in the playoffs. New York’s formerly fearsome pass rush has chalked up just three sacks in 113 dropbacks by Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo and Brett Favre (one each by DE Michael Strahan and LBs Kawika Mitchell and Reggie Torbor).
 
To put it in perspective, the Giants averaged 1 sack every 10.87 dropbacks in the regular season. They’ve averaged just 1 sack every 37.7 dropbacks here in the playoffs.
 
It’s certainly disappointing production from the league’s No. 1 group of Defensive Hogs.
 
But it also makes New York’s amazing pass defense here in the postseason – and the fact that the Giants are even in the Super Bowl –  all the more impressive.
 
You know our conclusion: it's been done with mirrors.


Subscribe to RSS XML
Add to My Yahoo!
Subscribe with Bloglines Subscribe in NewsGator Online
Add to My AOL BittyBrowser
Simpify! Convert RSS to PDF
Eskobo Add to your phone
Add to Technorati Favorites! Add to netvibes
Add this site to your Protopage
Find us at CHFF.net | Archive | Advertise with us | Get the CHFF e-delivered! | About us | Contact us | Privacy policy | Terms of use | Pigskin & Sausage Links
© Copyright 2005, Pigskin Media Inc. "The Cold, Hard Football Facts" and coldhardfootballfacts.com are trademarks of Pigskin Media Inc.
- Coldhardfootballfacts.com requires the Adobe Flash 8 player or greater -- best viewed in 1280 x 1024 resolution - POWERED BY TWCM