New York's offense vs. Green Bay's defense:

The regular season numbers here are quite one-sided in favor of Green Bay. New York's No. 6 Offensive Hogs will have their hooves full against the No. 3 Defensive Hogs from Green Bay, and the Giants were a dismal 23rd in Passing Yards Per Attempt during the season – no match for Green Bay's No. 6 Defensive Passer Rating. The Giants also have a disadvantage in efficiency, with a No. 13 ranking in Scoreability up against a Packers squad that ranked No. 7 in Bendability. While New York deserves credit for its solid showing in the playoffs, the Giants have averaged only 22.5 PPG while Green Bay held Seattle to a playoff-low 200 yards of offense. 

 

Advantage: Edge to Green Bay

 

Green Bay's offense vs. New York's defense 

New York's No. 1 Defensive Hogs have been one of the great stories of the 2007 playoffs. But Green Bay's No. 4 Offensive Hogs will be the best they've seen – especially at tackle, where Green Bay has allowed only nine sacks this year. If Green Bay can hold off the charge, Brett Favre and an offense that ranked No. 3 in Passing Yards Per Attempt has the advantage over New York and questionable pass defense. The Giants allowed an 83.4 Defensive Passer Rating, 17th in the NFL this year  and worst of any of the 12 playoff teams. Green Bay has a significant advantage in Scoreability/Bendability, too, ranking 7th in Scoreability to New York's 24th in Bendability.

 

The Packers are excellent here, in the top 10 in punting, kickoffs and punt returns, and rank 5th overall on our Special Teams Index. Only kicker Mason Crosby is a question mark, having missed eight FGs during the regular season and struggling terribly on kickoffs the past three weeks. But New York's special teams are terrible, 28th in the league and poor in all but kick returns where Ahmad Bradshaw is a threat.  

 

 

 

The Packers are still as healthy as a team is going to be at this time of the year. Six players were limited during practice this week, but all should play. None of the players that helped build the 13-3 record are out. 

 

The Giants, on the other hand, are still down a Pro Bowl tight end (Shockey) that contributed almost the entire seasoon, plus CB Kevin Dockery (definitely out). And with CBs Sam Madison (out last week) and Aaron Ross both limited this week, the secondary is a big question mark against the third most efficient passing offense in football.

 

According to the Weather Channel, it's frozen tundra time in Green Bay – temps in the single digits, with possible snow. We hate to give either team an edge because of the always unpredictable elements, but considering Eli Manning's well-documented struggles in the cold and Brett Favre's snowball-making abilities, we have to make an exception.

 

 

What does a monkey think? 

Our beloved Bonzo the Idiot Monkey was a prognosticating genius this regular season, using his patented coin-flip method to beat the experts from CBS Sports.com and finish at 146-109 overall. He went just 1-3 last week in the wild-card round, but remains confident, in an inscrutable simian kind of way.

 

Bonzo's coin likes ... New York (+6.5)

 

As we said last week, no team in the NFL this year is more balanced than Green Bay. We're not surprised to see their Quality Stat beatdown of New York here ... although the Giants were similarly outmatched against Dallas, and that turned out pretty well for them. But Dallas at least showed some weaknesses that offered the Giants a glimmer of hope. Green Bay shows none. This game looks to be even more one-sided than the other conference title game, with Green Bay holding definite advantages in everything: Quality Stats, weather, health, location and certainly intangibles with a 38-year-old legend QB. It's a pretty clear-cut choice.