New England's performance against Quality Opponents might be its most impressive number in a season full of show-stoppers. Going 8-0 against the cream of the crop is impressive enough, but winning the games by an average of 18.0 PPG is mind-blowing. The Patriots have basically lapped the field: Those eight victories came against seven of the other 11 playoff teams, including two teams still standing (Giants, Chargers) in the final four. San Diego has basically been average against Quality Opponents, at 4-3 now with two playoff wins but having been outscored overall (-2.1 PPG).
This stat measures the performance of each team relative to the average performance of their opponents. San Diego was 8.6 PPG better than average, 4th in the league. But New England was nearly two touchdowns better at 20.8 PPG above average. To put that into raw numbers: If the average game of New England's opponents was a 21-20 victory, their average game against the Patriots was a crushing 30-10 defeat.
San Diego's offense vs. New England's defense:
The pundits are ceding this battle to San Diego already, but the regular-season numbers were quite even. New England's No. 7 Defensive Hogs are a fair match for San Diego's No. 10 Offensive Hogs, and the No. 11 Defensive Passer Rating in New England is a bit stronger than the Chargers' 6.07 Passing YPA (16th). San Diego does rank No. 2 in Scoreability, but New England is a solid No. 6 defensively. As for the small postseason sample, San Diego's 22.5 PPG playoff average would have ranked them 16th in the regular season, while New England's 20 PPG allowed would stand at 12th.
Advantage: Even
New England's offense vs. San Diego's defense
San Diego had the best showing in our three defensive Quality Stats, No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating (70.0), No. 1 in Bendability and No. 5 in Defensive Hog Index. New England, of course, was No. 1 in each of the three offensive numbers, Passing Yards Per Attempt (7.79), Offensive Hog Index and Scoreability. New England, which played a tougher schedule and also ruled a season slanted toward offense rather than defense, has the advantages in these match-ups but will be facing its toughest defensive test since traveling to Indianapolis midseason.
Advantage: Edge to New England
Special teams
San Diego's special teams were the best of any playoff team in the regular season, where they finished No. 2 on our Special Teams Index. The Chargers finished in the top half of the league in all five categories. The Patriots (No. 10 on the Index) are a step behind in the kicking/punting game but better on coverage. The absence of KR Ellis Hobbs was noticeable in New England's win over Jacksonville, with the falloff quite steep to inexperienced Chad Jackson. But throwing K Nate Kaeding's postseason woes into the mix, the two teams are pretty even here pending Hobbs' presence.
Advantage: Slight edge to San Diego
Big Plays
Here's a classic battle of unmoveable object vs. irresistible force. The Patriots allowed fewer Big Plays than any team in the league (28). The Chargers made more Big Plays than any team in the league (69). How this particular matchup turns out will be the biggest factor in the final outcome. If the Chargers can break a couple of unexpected Big Plays, they have a very good chance of winning. If New England keeps San Diego's Big Play power in check, the Chargers have little hope of clawing out a victory.
Advantage: Even
Significant injuries
It's always tough to figure who will be in or out for New England from week to week. CB Ellis Hobbs was a blip on the injury radar screen last week, and played a back-up role for most of the day. He isn't listed on the injury reports for this week, and the Patriots appear to be at either full strength or quite close.
Not San Diego. In addition to the ongoing and well-documented question marks surrounding QB Philip Rivers, TE Antonio Gates and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (a.k.a. the Big Three), NT Jamal Williams was on the injury list midweek with a knee problem. If any of those four don't play, it's a huge deal. And even if they all play, they'll be hampered to differing degrees.
Advantage: Big edge to New England
Weather
According to the Weather Channel, it'll probably be slightly below freezing at the start of the game, with a 30 percent chance at snow and temps dipping to the 20s. Winds don't appear to be a factor, projected to be 6 MPH.
What does a monkey think?
Our beloved Bonzo the Idiot Monkey was a prognosticating genius this regular season, using his patented coin-flip method to beat the experts from CBS Sports.com and finish at 146-109 overall. He went 2-2 last week in the divisional round, 3-5 in the playoffs, picking against us in all eight games.
Bonzo's coin likes ... New England (-13.5)
Summary
New England has a regular-season 38-14 blowout over San Diego under its belt, along with the statistical edge across the board in the rematch. The Chargers don't have a clear edge anywhere on the field – even their greatest strengths are matched by New England strengths – and they're playing in very un-San Diego-like conditions in Foxboro. As if that weren't enough negative reinforcement, they're also hurt at some of the most critical positions on the field. Vegas (and Bonzo) got this one right – it shapes up as a 14-17 point win for the Patriots (giving 13.5).
The final score: New England 38, San Diego 21
