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A trollish concept: Quality Stats differential
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 12, 2008
We’ve long told you that our stats are “Quality Stats” because they have a direct correlation to winning football games.
After all, what good is blurting out a stat if really doesn’t matter?
Well, Cold, Hard Football Facts reader, occasional contributor and asocial basement-dwelling stat junkie Mark Wald has gone our Quality Stats one step further, sizing up some offensive and defensive statistical counterparts and looking at the differential between the two.
- Offensive Passing Yards Per Attempt – Defensive Passing YPA = Passing YPA Differential
- Scoreability Index – Bendability Index = Efficiency Differential
- Offensive Passer Rating – Defensive Passer Rating = Passer Rating Differential
In a second spreadsheet, which you can find here, Wald also looked at first down differential and the results are pretty impressive (it was actually this report that he sent us last week that spawned his desire to size up Quality Stats differential).
Writes Wald:
“Using 2007 final regular-season stats and the 12 playoff teams as the gauge for success, the differential in each category has a more direct correlation to winning than either the single offensive or defensive stats alone.
“For example, Passing YPA differential was clearly more correlative to winning football games than either Offensive Passing YPA or Defensive YPA alone.”
(For the record, Bud Goode, who we profiled in our “ smartest football sites” piece, has charted Passing Yards Per Attempt differential for years, calling it his “No. 1 Killer Stat.”)
Wald does note that Passer Rating differential was actually slightly less correlative too winning than Defensive Passer Rating alone. “However, when you consider the differential rank of the elite playoff teams, it was more correlative too winning.”
All in all, though, some pretty interesting stuff for trolls and those who just want to look like trolls.
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