No one has done it against Quality Opponents like the 2007 Patriots, who have slain all seven of them, and by a record average of +19.3 PPG. The Jags are just average against the big boys, 5-3 with a point differential of +0.5 PPG.
This stat measures how well each team played relative to the average performance of their opponents. Again, Jacksonville isn't quite in New England's class here. The Jaguars were 7.3 PPG better than average, which is quite good (No. 6 overall). But the Patriots were +20.8 PPG better than average, 7.7 points a game ahead of No. 2 Indianapolis and 12.2 PPG better than No. 3 Dallas.
New England's offense vs. Jacksonville's defense
The Jaguars still have a reputation as a defense-first team, but the teal-and-black has not been great on the defensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, New England's offense is ... well, you know. The Patriots are first in all three offensive Quality Stats, while Jacksonville chimes in at 12th in Defensive Hog, 7th in Defensive Passer Rating and 8th in Scoreability. Jacksonville is better than average, but New England's 38.3 PPG vs. Quality Opponents pretty much tells the story.
Advantage: Big edge to New England
Jacksonville's offense vs. New England's defense
The Jaguars' offensive line is the most underrated unit of 2007, finishing the season tied with New England atop the Offensive Hog Index. They'll be able to get it done against a New England Defensive Hog group that was No. 7 overall. The Scoreability/Bendability battle is a wash, and the Jaguars' passing game (No. 8 in YPA) is no lock against New England's secondary (No. 11 Defensive Passer Rating).
Advantage: Slight edge to Jacksonville
Special teams
Both teams played well on teams this year, as measured by our Special Teams Index (Jacksonville was No. 9, New England was No. 10). Both teams are solid in field goal kicking, kickoffs and punt coverage. But were below average in punting. Both boast potentially explosive return men. Jacksonville will probably need a perfect day from their special teams to stay in this one, not easy against the good-across-the-board Patriots.
Advantage: Even
Big Plays
Jacksonville flashed its Big Play ability against Pittsburgh, no surprise after finishing at +18 (5th) on the Big Play Index. The Jaguars were in the top five in both Big Plays generated and Big Plays allowed. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, no one gave up fewer Big Plays than New England (28), and the Patriots were No. 2 overall at +27.
Advantage: Slight edge to New England
Significant injuries
Jacksonville will be without MLB Mike Peterson, its standout defender, and lost Marcus Stroud toward the end of the season. DT John Henderson and S Reggie Nelson are also question marks, big hits for a defense that was already facing a tough task against the most prolific offense in history. But the offense is intact, which could be more important in what seems too shape up, stastically anyway, as a shootout.
New England's defense has missed LB Rosevelt Colvin, and they are thin at linebacker without him. Injuries to RG Stephen Neal and RT Nick Kaczur are worth watching; neither started the season finale vs. New York. Overall, however, the Patriots are a healthy bunch.
Advantage: Slight edge to New England
Weather
According to the Weather Channel, it's likely the temps will be in the mid-30s. That's downright summery for a nighttime tilt in Massachusetts in January.
What does a monkey think?
Our beloved Bonzo the Idiot Monkey was a prognosticating genius this regular season, using his patented coin-flip method to beat the experts from CBS Sports.com and finish at 146-109 overall. He went only 1-3 last week in the wild-card round, but remains confident, in an inscrutable simian kind of way.
Bonzo's coin likes ... Jacksonville (+13)
Summary
Jacksonville is confident, maybe even cocky going into this game, suggesting that they see something on film that the numbers don't show. Or it suggests they're trying to cover up for their insecurities in the face of a tornado. Cocky trash talkers don't exactly have a history of success against the Patriots this decade.
New England's offense should dominate against a Jacksonville defense that allowed 21.8 PPG to Quality Opponents this year. Jacksonville's offense is a bit better than the Patriots' defense, but it's a fairly close one on the stat sheet. And certainly not the gaping chasm we see between New England's offense and Jacksonville's defense.
Special teams and Big Plays are two huge strengths for Jacksonville, but both are counteracted by New England. And as the final nail in the coffin, the Patriots are healthier, and playing at home. It all adds up to an easy win on the scoreboard, although the game may well be competitive throughout.
The final score: New England 38, Jacksonville 23
