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Week 17 Beer Run: slim pickins
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 27, 2007
Week 17 is an abomination.
Normally, we pick six games per Sunday, but when the Colts are dogs at home against Tennessee and the Cowboys are catching 10 points vs. the Skins ... well, clearly our cogent analysis based on Quality Stats just isn't going to be accurate.
So, with the exception of Saturday night's Patriots-Giants simulcast special, we're only picking games where both teams are guaranteed to be playing on the level.
For the season, we're 71-41 straight up but right at .500 vs. the spread (56-56).
We're only going to pick two Sunday games this week, both of them with theoretical impact on the playoff race but not involving teams resting starters.
First is New Orleans at Chicago, an even match between disappointing teams. Second is Minnesota at Denver, also a fairly interesting matchup. If New Orleans wins, Minnesota loses and Washington loses, the Saints are in. If the Vikings win and Washington loses, they're also in. And since the Washington game isn't until four, both of these games will have meaning.
To the picks, pathetic as they may be.
NEW ORLEANS at CHICAGO
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Teams |
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7-8 |
Overall Record |
6-9 | |
2-4 |
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2-7 | |
14.92 YPPA (18) |
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16.29 YPPA (9) | |
15.16 YPPS (17) |
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14.67 YPPS (13) | |
10.7 (7t) |
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28.3 (31) | |
21.3 (24) |
| 13.0 (10t) | |
6.597 (10) |
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5.47 (22) | |
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85.9 (22) | |
-13 (29t) |
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+1 (12) | |
-2.5 |
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+2.5 | |
40 |
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40 |
This is a battle of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness.
The Bears still have a good defensive front (No. 10 on the O.H.I.), but New Orleans' offensive line has been a big strength. The Saints are among the best in the league on third down and in preventing QB catastrophe, the Bears are among the best at stopping third downs and causing negative pass plays. The Saints are a poor running team, the Bears are poor at stopping the run.
As to the Bears' offense vs. the Saints' defense, no one's impressing anyone there. The Bears' offense ranges from below average to terrible (No. 31 Offensive Hogs), the Saints defense the same (No. 32 Defensive Passer Rating).
In a game that could go either way, the Bears have two good edges: home field, and Big Play. They are +1 on the Big Play Index, while New Orleans is -13. And home cooking was quite tasty for the Bears last week vs. Green Bay.
The score: Chicago 24, New Orleans 17
MINNESOTA at DENVER
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Teams |
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8-7 |
Overall Record |
6-9 | |
2-4 |
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2-5 | |
17.47 YPPA (5) |
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12.93 YPPA (29) | |
14.59 YPPS (11) |
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17.38 YPPS (26) | |
18.7 (19t) |
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11.3 (11) | |
15.3 (15t) |
| 22.3 (25) | |
5.93 (19) |
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6.625 (8) | |
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88.2 (24) | |
+21 (3) |
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-5 (19) | |
-2.5 |
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+2.5 | |
42 |
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42 |
Back in September, the idea that Minnesota would be A: fighting for a playoff spot in Week 17 and B: favored in Denver, would be just plain ridiculous.
But here we are.
The Broncos are nowhere in Minnesota's class on the Quality Stats -- they're in the bottom 10 league wide in four of the seven, while the Vikings' worst rank is 21st. Denver has been the most inefficient team in the league (29th Bendability, 26th Bendability), while the Vikings make the most of their opportunities.
And although Minnesota doesn't appear to have a huge edge in the trenches on the Hog Indexes, they bring their No. 1 rushing offense (5.37 a carry) to Denver, where the Broncos will trot out the No. 29 rushing D (4.45 per carry allowed).
Minnesota also has a significant Big Play edge, +21 to -5. The Quality Stats are pretty clear on this one.
The final score: Minnesota 30, Denver 24
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