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SNF primer: Washington at Minnesota
CHFF for December 23, 2007

WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA

Washington Redskins

Teams
7-7
Overall Record
8-6
1-5
2-3
15.68 YPPA (13)
18.21 YPPA (3)
16.77 YPPS (22)
14.61 YPPS (10)
15.7 (16)
19.0 (20)
16.7 (16t)
15.0 (13)
6.10 (16)
6.02 (17)
79.5 (12)
82.4 (17)
-8 (23t)
+25 (2)
+6.5
-6.5
40.5
40.5
 
The Redskins' mediocrity has reached epic proportions.
 
With two weeks to go, they:
  • Have won as many games as they've lost (7-7)
  • Have scored 275 points and allowed 283
  • Have amassed 4,743 yards and allowed 4.609
  • Are 16th in Offensive Hog Index, Defensive Hog Index and Passing YPA
  • Have an average rank of 16.9 in the Quality Stats, which is more or less the NFL median
So the question is, are the Minnesota Vikings 6.5 points better than the average NFL team?
 
Well, the Vikings aren't that great in the Quality Stats either, but they have a huge edge on the Big Play Index -- they're +25 to Washington's -8. This wasn't a factor last week vs. Chicago, as Minnesota lost the Big Play battle 4-3 but won the game 20-13.
 
Assuming the Big Play difference returns to form this week (where Minnesota is +2 a game better than Washington), the Vikings are the superior team. Washington's run-first attack doesn't translate against Minnesota (No. 2 in the NFL in yards-per-rush allowed), so they'll have to go to the air with backup Todd Collins.
 
And Minnesota's No. 3 Bendability should be a factor against Washington's No. 22 Scoreability, suggesting that touchdowns will be hard to come by for Washington. 
 
The young Vikings looked awed by the national spotlight last week; if they've adjusted, they should cover easily.
 
The score: Minnesota 31, Washington 13
 

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