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Friday Beer Run: Week 16
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 21, 2007
 Well, let's pretend Week 15 never happened.
We were an embarrassing 2-5 vs. the spread last week using our Quality Stats to analyze the NFL games. It's all well and good to have such a poor showing in September, when everything is still nebulous, but the Quality Stats should be beacons of truth at this point in the season.
Frankly, we're questioning our own ability to channel the Quality Stats' greatness, and have spent much of the week shut in a room with just our catalog of NFL Films DVDs, a calculator and Scotch. We've emerged stronger and smarter, if slightly drunker.
We were 4-3 straight up, leaving us:
- 67-38 (straight up)
- 53-52 (vs. the spread)
Let's get the mojo back!
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI
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Teams |
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9-5 |
Overall Record |
5-9 |
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1-3 |
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1-5 |
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14.88 YPPA (18) |
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14.06 YPPA (25) |
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13.27 YPPS (5) |
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15.19 YPPS (15) |
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9.3 (4t) |
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12.0 (11) |
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22.3 (26t) |
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24.3 (31) |
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6.97 (5) |
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6.645 (8) |
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92.3 (30) |
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-5 (18t) |
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-4 (17) |
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-3˝ |
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+3˝ |
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43.5 |
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43.5 |
It's remarkable how similar the Browns and Bengals are by the numbers, yet one team is 9-5 and one is 5-9.
They have the same strengths and weaknesses, but Cleveland is just a bit better in all of the Quality Stats -- they are 3-to-10 spots higher than Cincy in all of them except Big Play Index, where the Bengals are a notch better.
So, why is Cleveland's Romeo Crennel a candidate for Coach of the Year and Cincinnati's Marvin Lewis a candidate for the soup-kitchen line?
Well, little differences can mean a lot. The Bengals' pass defense is just pretty poor at 84.9 defensive passer rating, Cincy's is flat-out bad at 92.3. The Bengals' Offensive Hogs are good (11th), the Browns' are really good (4th). The Bengals are average at Scoreability (15th), the Browns are great at it (5th).
If the Bengals were already in the tank, like Atlanta or Baltimore, we'd like Cleveland to roll in Cincinnati en route to the playoffs. But the Bengals still have some spunk left, so the spread of Browns -3˝ should be about right..
The score: Cleveland 28, Cincinnati 24
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS
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Teams |
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7-7 |
Overall Record |
12-2 |
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1-6 |
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4-2 |
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14.68 YPPA (21) |
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16.54 YPPA (10) |
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14.74 YPPS (12) |
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12.65 YPPS (4) |
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14.0 (14t) |
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10.7 (8) |
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23.7 (28) |
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16.3 (15) |
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6.850 (6) |
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7.22 (4) |
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72.0 (2) |
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-5 (18t) |
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+5 (10) |
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+7 |
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-7 |
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45 |
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45 |
If we had emotions, we'd root for the Houston Texans. By God, they're not very good, but they've got a top-notch passing game and enough spunk to fill a sperm bank.
Games like this one, where an underdog team with playoff aspirations goes to face a superior team with everything wrapped up, are sketchy. Will the better team come out early, roll up a 21-0 lead and cruise? Or will the hungrier underdog win it on sheer want-to?
Damned if we know. We're just here to look at the numbers. The Colts have big edges on both lines, and have the No. 2 Defensive Passer Rating to send out against Houston's lone strength -- their No. 6 Passing YPA.
The Texans are 1-6 vs. Quality Teams, so a win is more or less out of the question. A cover? It's possible, but only if Indy goes soft worrying more about January than December.
The score: Indianapolis 28, Houston 16
WASHINGTON at MINNESOTA
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Teams |
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7-7 |
Overall Record |
8-6 |
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1-5 |
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2-3 |
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15.68 YPPA (13) |
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18.21 YPPA (3) |
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16.77 YPPS (22) |
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14.61 YPPS (10) |
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15.7 (16) |
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19.0 (20) |
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16.7 (16t) |
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15.0 (13) |
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6.10 (16) |
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6.02 (17) |
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82.4 (17) |
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-8 (23t) |
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+25 (2) |
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+6.5 |
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-6.5 |
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40.5 |
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40.5 |
The Redskins' mediocrity has reached epic proportions.
With two weeks to go, they:
- Have won as many games as they've lost (7-7)
- Have scored 275 points and allowed 283
- Have amassed 4,743 yards and allowed 4.609
- Are 16th in Offensive Hog Index, Defensive Hog Index and Passing YPA
- Have an average rank of 16.9 in the Quality Stats, which is more or less the NFL median
So the question is, are the Minnesota Vikings 6.5 points better than the average NFL team?
Well, the Vikings aren't that great in the Quality Stats either, but they have a huge edge on the Big Play Index -- they're +25 to Washington's -8. This wasn't a factor last week vs. Chicago, as Minnesota lost the Big Play battle 4-3 but won the game 20-13.
Assuming the Big Play difference returns to form this week (where Minnesota is +2 a game better than Washington), the Vikings are the superior team. Washington's run-first attack doesn't translate against Minnesota (No. 2 in the NFL in yards-per-rush allowed), so they'll have to go to the air with backup Todd Collins.
And Minnesota's No. 3 Bendability should be a factor against Washington's No. 22 Scoreability, suggesting that touchdowns will be hard to come by for Washington.
The young Vikings looked awed by the national spotlight last week; if they've adjusted, they should cover easily.
The score: Minnesota 31, Washington 13
NEW YORK GIANTS at BUFFALO
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Teams |
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7-7 |
Overall Record |
9-5 |
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0-6 |
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0-4 |
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16.83 YPPA (8) |
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14.54 YPPA (23) |
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17.65 YPPS (27) |
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15.34 YPPS (16) |
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19.3 (21) |
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10.0 (6) |
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27.7 (32) |
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6.3 (1) |
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5.74 (20) |
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5.42 (24) |
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83.1 (18) |
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+6 (9) |
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-10 (27) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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32.5 |
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32.5 |
Both of these teams have survived to fight for the postseason thanks to their ability to beat the bad teams. They're 16-2 vs. the non-Quality teams, 0-10 vs. the Quality.
This was the same scenario last week when Washington faced the Giants, and we concluded that since the Giants were a Quality Team, they'd probably win. They then proved they were Quality in name only, losing to Washington at home.
However, the Giants have an enormous edge in the trenches against the Bills. They are No. 6 on the Offensive Hog Index to Buffalo's No. 32 Defensive Hogs and send their No. 1 Defensive Hogs vs. Buffalo's No. 21 offensive line. In our experience, a mismatch like that almost always leads to easy victory for the tougher team.
Buffalo will need to win the Big Play battle to keep this one close -- and they've got a big edge there, +6 to NYG's -10. But even if that holds to form, the Giants should be able to batter the Bills into submission. If they lose this one, Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin should start working on their resumes.
The final score: New York 19, Buffalo 10
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND
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Teams |
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1-13 |
Overall Record |
14-0 |
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0-5 |
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5-0 |
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12.62 YPPA (31) |
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17.49 YPPA (6) |
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17.12 YPPS (24) |
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11.07 YPPS (1) |
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16.3 (17) |
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6.3 (1) |
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21.3 (25) |
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11.3 (5t) |
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5.202 (28) |
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7.92 (1) |
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76.4 (9) |
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-11 (28) |
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+28 (1) |
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+22 |
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-22 |
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45 |
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45 |
Another week, another 20+ point spread for the New England Patriots -- their fourth such spread in five weeks something we've never seen before and will possibly never see again.
Problem is, the Patriots failed to cover the previous three (PHI, BAL, NYJ) big spreads, in fact they weren't even close, winning by 3, 3 and 10.
Of course, none of those three teams were as bad as the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are decent in the trenches, but horrible on both sides of the passing game and, well, they're 1-13. That takes some doing.
The Patriots also have a +39 edge in the Big Play battle for the season, which we enjoy using the adjective "whopping" to describe. The Patriots have won nine of their 14 games by 20+ points, and the Dolphins are their worst opponent to date. New England might remove some of its starters in the second half if it's a blowout, but the Dolphins' front-liners won't be much better than the Patriots' backups.
With the forecast calling for mild temperatures, 10 MPH wins and a light rain, weather won't conspire to keep the score down.
The final score: New England 34, Miami 6
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
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Teams |
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5-9 |
Overall Record |
12-2 |
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1-6 |
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4-1 |
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15.78 YPPA (12) |
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18.44 YPPA (2) |
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15.70 YPPS (18) |
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13.36 YPPS (6) |
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28.0 (31) |
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11.0 (9) |
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11.3 (5t) |
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7.7 (3) |
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5.43 (23) |
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7.47 (3) |
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77.2 (10) |
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-3 (15t) |
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+20 (4t) |
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+8.5 |
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