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Friday Beer Run: Week 15
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 13, 2007
 The Cold, Hard Football Facts were a perfect six-for-six straight up last Sunday picking the most competitive games of the week, and 4-2 against the spread.
Unfortunately, we let the slumping Bonzo the Idiot Monkey pick last week's Thursday night game, and he liked Chicago to handle Washington. Oops.
And we look like monkeys after going with Denver to pull the road upset in Houston Thursday.
Still, the CHFF are now 63-35 overall and a respectable (in certain seedier quarters of the Bowery) 51-47 against the spread using our Quality Stats to predict the outcomes of the week's best games.
Here's a look at our Friday Beer Run six-pack of Week 15 games.
BUFFALO at CLEVELAND
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Teams |
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7-6 |
Overall Record |
8-5 |
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0-5 |
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1-3 |
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16.25 YPPA (10) |
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14.23 YPPA (25) |
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16.61 YPPS (23) |
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12.72 YPPS (4) |
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19.0 (20) |
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9.3 (6) |
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27.7 (32) |
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24.0 (29) |
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5.94 (19) |
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7.07 (5) |
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83.2 (17) |
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87.1 (22) |
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+14 (7t) |
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-3 (14) |
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+5.5 |
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-5.5 |
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43.5 |
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43.5 |
The Buffalo Bills are one of the most improbable 7-6 teams imaginable. They don't do anything particularly well, and are downright terrible on the offensive line (No. 32 Hog Index). But they've won the games they were supposed to win (7-1 vs. non-quality opponents), and their +14 showing on the Big Play Index is a tribute to their mental toughness (and their +7 performance against Miami last week)..
On the other hand, the Browns have a top-notch offense that covers up a pretty poor defense. They're in the top six in all three of the Offensive Quality Stats, in the bottom 11 of all three Defensive Quality Stats.
Like the Bills, the Browns have fattened up on poor opponents (7-2 vs. non-Quality). And regardless of the record, the Bills are a non-Quality Opponent. The Browns are significantly better in the trenches, and they're playing at home for a playoff spot.
Going against an average defense, the Browns should be able to score at will.
And in Buffalo's three road trips to Quality Opponents this year, they've lost by 21 (at PIT), 31 (at NE) and 22 (at JAX). It'll be another blowout loss in Cleveland.
The score: Cleveland 28, Buffalo 13
NEW YORK JETS at NEW ENGLAND
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Teams |
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3-10 |
Overall Record |
13-0 |
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1-6 |
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7-0 |
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14.45 YPPA (21) |
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17.22 YPPA (6) |
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16.10 YPPS (18) |
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10.98 YPPS (1) |
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22.0 (27) |
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6.0 (2) |
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24.7 (30t) |
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10.7 (5) |
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5.53 (24) |
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8.09 (1) |
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87.9 (24) |
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77.7 (8) |
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-8 (24) |
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+28 (2) |
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+23.5 |
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-23.5 |
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46.5 |
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46.5 |
Well, this is just ridiculous. The New York Jets do nothing well. They are on the road against a team that does everything well.
So, are we picking this one just for the easy "W" in the standings? No, we're picking it because it's the most talked about game of the week. By the numbers, New England deserves to be a 23.5-point favorite -- they're as good across the board as New York is bad.
But with inclement weather predicted for Foxboro, and all of the emotion on both sides of the ball, doesn't it figure to be a close game?
Oh well. Let's shut out all that nonsense and concentrate on the numbers. The subpar teams that have hung with New England (PHI, BAL) were strong on both lines. The Jets are very weak on both lines. They can't pass the ball, or stop the pass. They never make Big Plays (26 on the year, least in the NFL), and the Patriots never allow Big Plays (20 allowed, least in the NFL).
Basically, the Jets' only hope for a close game is that they run the ball -- effectively, mind you -- against New England's eroding run defense (No. 24 in yards per carry against, 4.29) and keep the Patriots' offense off the field.
That sound like a losing plan to anyone else?
The score: New England 28, New York 0.
BALTIMORE at MIAMI
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Teams |
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4-9 |
Overall Record |
0-13 |
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0-7 |
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0-7 |
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12.31 YPPA (31) |
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12.22 YPPA (32) |
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17.08 YPPS (26) |
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17.20 YPPS (27) |
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19.3 (21) |
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18.0 (17t) |
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7.0 (1t) |
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23.7 (28) |
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5.04 (30) |
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5.08 (29) |
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92.9 (30) |
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-25 (32) |
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-20 (30) |
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-3.5 |
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+3.5 |
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37.5 |
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37.5 |
Between these two teams, you've got a total of four wins, 22 losses, and a lot of unhappy faces in the lockerroom. The numbers are similarly terrible, with both teams near the bottom of the barrel in just about every category.
There's only one strength on either side, Baltimore's Defensive Hogs (tied for the NFL lead with the Giants). Fortunately for the Dolphins, their biggest "strength" is their Offensive Hogs, tied for 17th despite the lack of talent at the skill positions. The Miami front line sticks out like a sore thumb on such a terrible team.
But will it be enough? Well, there was a similar matchup two weeks ago, when the Jets came to Miami and we confidently picked the Dolphins to win. We won't make the same mistake this time. If the Ravens' pride swelled in trying to beat undefeated New England, it'll certainly swell again trying not to lose to winless Miami.
The score: Baltimore 23, Miami 13
JACKSONVILLE at PITTSBURGH
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Teams |
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9-4 |
Overall Record |
9-4 |
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4-3 |
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4-1 |
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18.77 YPPA (1) |
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16.88 YPPA (8) |
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14.69 YPPS (12) |
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14.02 YPPS (7) |
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8.7 (4t) |
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14.0 (13) |
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17.6 (21) |
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11.3 (6) |
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6.56 (9) |
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6.29 (14) |
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75.3 (7) |
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+18 (4) |
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+9 (11) |
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+3.5 |
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-3.5 |
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37 |
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37 |
No matter who wins, these two teams could meet again in the first round of the playoffs. If Pittsburgh loses, it could slip behind San Diego into the No. 4 spot and host the Jaguars. If Jacksonville loses, it could end up behind Cleveland in the No. 6 spot and play the likely No. 3 Pittsburgh.
Either way, this is the best matchup of the week -- as you can see from both teams' impressive showing in the Quality Stats. Both teams' usual strengths are relative weaknesses this year, and will go head to head. Pittsburgh's Offensive Hogs are 13th, while Jacksonville's Defensive Hogs are 21st -- numbers well off the standard for both franchises.
Jacksonville has the slightly better passing game (6.56 per attempt to 6.29 per attempt), while Pittsburgh has the slightly better secondary (75.3 def. passer rating).
The Jaguars have a couple of nice edges -- they're No. 1 in Bendability, which suggests that Pittsburgh will have to settle for some field goals, and +18 on the Big Play Index to Pittsburgh's +11. But the Steelers are 6-0 at home and 3-0 vs. Quality Opponents at home, while the Jags are 4-2 on the road but 0-2 vs. Quality Opponents on the road.
For this incredibly even game, the three-point Heinz Field edge should be the difference.
The score: Pittsburgh 23, Jacksonville 20
ARIZONA at NEW ORLEANS
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Teams |
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6-7 |
Overall Record |
6-7 |
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3-1 |
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2-4 |
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13.11 YPPA (29) |
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15.51 YPPA (14) |
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14.33 YPPS (9) |
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15.33 YPPS (16) |
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21.7 (25t) |
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10.0 (7t) |
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17.0 (18t) |
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18.0 (22) |
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6.48 (11) |
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6.45 (12) |
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94.8 (31) |
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-11 (26t) |
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-14 (28t) |
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+3.5 |
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-3.5 |
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48 |
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48 |
The winner of this game will likely be the main challenger to Minnesota for the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoff field.
But as you can see from the numbers above, neither team is particularly good. The Cardinals have shown flashes of brilliance (3-1 vs. Quality Teams), and the Saints have above-average numbers across the board on offense.
Both teams are terrible on the Big Play Index, which is a main reason why they're muddling around .500 despite some exciting players on offense. This should be a sloppy game, for sure, with a lot of passing and a lot of turnovers.
Who wins? The Cardinals are a bit better balanced, but the Saints have the better offense overall and the home-field edge. And the Saints' numbers are still skewed by their abysmal three-game start to the season. Plus, if there's a single rule to live by when handicapping a game, it's that if the Cardinals need a win, they probably won't get it.
The score: New Orleans 29, Arizona 24
WASHINGTON at NEW YORK GIANTS
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Teams |
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6-7 |
Overall Record |
9-4 |
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0-6 |
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0-4 |
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15.13 YPPA (15) |
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14.58 YPPA (20) |
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17.01 YPPS (25) |
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14.81 YPPS (14) |
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14.7 (14) |
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10.0 (7t) |
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16.0 (13t) |
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7.0 (1t) |
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6.12 (16) |
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5.69 (21) |
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84.7 (18) |
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-11 (26t) |
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-5 (17t) |
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+4.5 |
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