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Troll Report: Week 14 Relativity Index
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 9, 2007
( Ed. Note: Cold, Hard Football Facts reader Brian Sheppard is back with his look at the Relativity Index, which measures how each team performs relative to the average game of their opponents. For example, a team that's +3.0 on the Relativity Index has outscored its opponents by +3.0 PPG relative to the performance of those opponents in their other games. For a fuller explanation of the Relativity Index, see Sheppard's original contribution on the topic.)
By Brian Sheppard
Cold, Hard Football Facts relative contributor
- they aren’t the Patriots, and
- they play in the NFC
“The 11-1 Cowboys are the class of the NFC which, compared to the unbeaten Patriots, is like saying Britney Spears is the class of rocker parents,” writes Woj. That is a great line for a laugh, but the Cold Hard Football Facts would like to clarify a few things.
Namely, it's time to reject the notion that the NFC is inferior to the AFC. The NFL's senior circuit has certainly played second fiddle to the AFC over the past decade-plus, but that situation is clearly changing this season.
By comparing Spears to the NFC, Woj implies that the AFC is composed solely of upstanding, righteous, wholesome parents.
The truth is that the NFC boasts an edge in the inter-conference series (26-22). The AFC has a small positive margin in scoring differential, but by only 0.3 points per game.
The AFC also has a slightly larger positive edge in the Relativity Index, but only by +0.55 PPG. That small differential is further mitigated by the fact that AFC teams largely play each other.
But the Patriots, who are nearly 10 PPG ahead of the No. 2 team on the list, remain a singular outlier that skews the averages in favor of the AFC. The average rank of the AFC teams is 16.4, where the exact middle of the 32-team league has rank 16.5.
The top of the rankings are also pretty evenly split. Relativity shows the AFC has the top two spots. But the difference between the No. 2 Colts and No. 3 Cowboys is negligible. Same for No. 4 (Packers) and No. 5 (Steelers), along with No. 6 (Chargers) and No. 7 (the rapidly rising Vikings).
Third, the Patriots statistical dominance is starting to show some wear and tear after two close victories in their last two games. For instance, the Patriots no longer lead the league in Yards Per Pass Differential. This is the difference between what a team gains when it drops back to pass, and what it allows its opponents. The league leaders are now the Cowboys, who gain 3.2 yards more than their opponents per pass attempt. The Patriots are now second, at +2.5.
Woj continues, “…if the Patriots and Cowboys played tomorrow, New England would win.”
The Cold, Hard Football Facts, based upon the Relativity Index, are not as clear-cut anymore.
New England has a better record, a greater point differential and would obviously be favorites in a rematch. But could the Patriots be so good as to guarantee a win against the Cowboys? Not exactly.
New England's edge in point differential over Dallas is +9.5 PPG, which might imply the Cowboys dont' have a chance. But the Patriots have a 19.7 PPG margin over the Eagles, who they beat at home by a mere 3 points, and an amazing +29.2 differential over the Ravens. And we all saw how easy that went for New England on Monday night.
2007 RELATIVITY INDEX (through Week 13)
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|
Team |
PPG |
PPGA |
OppPPG |
OppPA |
Relativity |
|
1 |
New England |
39.1 |
17.4 |
22.2 |
20.7 |
+23.1 |
|
2 |
Indianapolis |
28.1 |
16.4 |
22.0 |
19.8 |
+13.8 |
|
3 |
Dallas |
32.9 |
20.7 |
21.8 |
20.5 |
+13.6 |
|
4 |
Green Bay |
26.9 |
18.5 |
22.2 |
21.0 |
+9.6 |
|
5 |
Pittsburgh |
24.7 |
12.9 |
22.1 |
24.7 |
+9.2 |
|
6 |
San Diego |
23.8 |
19.4 |
22.4 |
20.3 |
+6.4 |
|
7 |
Minnesota |
23.2 |
19.8 |
22.6 |
21.4 |
+4.6 |
|
8 |
Tampa Bay |
20.1 |
15.6 |
21.3 |
21.6 |
+4.2 |
|
9 |
Jacksonville |
22.3 |
18.6 |
20.9 |
20.5 |
+4.1 |
|
10 |
Seattle |
22.8 |
17.3 |
20.9 |
22.4 |
+4.0 |
|
11 |
Philadelphia |
21.5 |
20.5 |
23.8 |
21.4 |
+3.4 |
|
12 |
Cleveland |
28.0 |
28.2 |
21.5 |
20.2 |
+1.2 |
|
13 |
NY Giants |
22.8 |
21.4 |
21.7 |
22.1 |
+1.0 |
|
14 |
Cincinnati |
24.3 |
26.3 |
21.7 |
19.9 |
-0.3 |
|
15 |
Washington |
19.1 |
21.4 |
23.5 |
21.6 |
-0.4 |
|
16 |
Tennessee |
19.3 |
20.1 |
21.2 |
21.9 |
-1.4 |
|
17 |
New Orleans |
22.2 |
23.3 |
19.0 |
19.9 |
-2.0 |
|
18 |
Chicago |
19.8 |
22.7 |
22.6 |
21.8 |
-2.1 |
|
19 |
Arizona |
23.4 |
23.3 |
19.3 |
21.8 |
-2.4 |
|
20 |
Detroit |
22.3 |
25.9 |
21.1 |
21.1 |
-3.7 |
|
21 |
Kansas City |
14.3 |
19.2 |
23.2 |
22.1 |
-3.7 |
|
22 |
Houston |
21.9 |
24.3 |
19.8 |
21.3 |
-3.8 |
|
23 |
Buffalo |
15.3 |
22.8 |
24.5 |
22.5 |
-5.5 |
|
24 |
Oakland |
19.5 |
21.7 |
20.1 |
23.8 |
-5.8 |
|
25 |
Baltimore |
17.2 |
22.5 |
23.3 |
24.0 |
-6.1 |
|
26 |
NY Jets |
18.4 |
24.3 |
21.8 |
22.2 |
-6.2 |
|
27 |
Carolina |
17.0 |
21.4 |
20.0 |
22.2 |
-6.6 |
|
28 |
Denver |
20.1 |
27.4 |
20.6 |
20.0 |
-6.7 |
|
29 |
Miami |
16.3 |
26.4 |
22.9 |
22.2 |
-9.4 |
|
30 |
Atlanta |
14.3 |
22.7 |
20.1 |
21.5 |
-9.9 |
|
31 |
St. Louis |
16.3 |
24.8 |
20.2 |
22.4 |
-10.6 |
|
32 |
San Francisco |
13.7 |
23.8 |
19.9 |
22.3 |
-12.5 |
PPG - The average PPG scored
PPFA - The average PPG allowed
OppPPG - The average PPG scored by that team's opponents in their other games
OppPA - The average PPG allowed by that team's opponents in their other games
Relativity - The average difference in scoring margin It's is obtained by taking the difference between PPG-OppPA and adding it to the difference between OppPPG-PPGA.
So in this example, New England scores 39.1 PPG against teams that allow 20.7 PPG (+18.4) against their other opponents; New England allows 17.4 PPG against teams who score 22.2 PPG (+4.8) agains their other opponents; yielding a combined differential of +23.1 PPG (actual total is +23.2 using these single-decimal point rounded-off numbers that appear in the chart, but +23.1).
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