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Friday Beer Run: Week 14
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 7, 2007
 We're getting pretty good at this mediocre thing. We sucked at the start of the season picking games (as we usually do with our slavish dependence upon our Quality Stats, which take a few weeks to offer some direction). We rolled for several weeks, and now we've meandered like a popsicle stick in a sewer drain of mediocrity of the past few weeks, like with our 4-4 mark ATS last week, and 5-3 record straight up.
Through Week 13 of the season, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are:
- 57-33 straight up
- 47-43 against the spread
Here's a look at our Friday Beer Run six-pack of Week 14 games.
NEW YORK GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA
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Teams |
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8-4 |
Overall Record |
5-7 |
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0-3 |
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0-5 |
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14.13 YPPA (24) |
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15.48 YPPA (13) |
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14.52 YPPS (10) |
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16.60 YPPS (22) |
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10.3 (5t) |
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11.0 (8t) |
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6.0 (1) |
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15.3 (13t) |
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5.64 (22) |
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6.17 (16) |
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84.2 (19) |
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86.7 (22) |
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-6 (21t) |
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-7 (25t) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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42.5 |
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42.5 |
For an 8-4 team, the Giants are surprisingly poor in our Quality Stats. It starts to make sense when you look at New York's 0-3 mark, and -14.3 PPG scoring differential, against Quality Teams. Basically, they Giants have cranked out an 8-4 record by chalking eight wins against bad teams.
The Giants are, however, extremely strong in the trenches -- No. 1 on the Defensive Hog Index, No. 5 (tie) on the Offensive Hog Index.
The Eagles are in a similar boat (poor in most stats and winless, 0-5, against Quality Teams. At least Philly ranks above average in the trenches, bu behind the Giants on both Hog Indexes.
Both teams are poor in the secondary and average in the passing game. Neither is good on the Big Play Index.
New York's edge in the trenches should be enough to counteract Philly's homefield advantage, leaving a basically even game in which the slightly stronger team will emerge victorious.
The score: New York Giants 28, Philadelphia 27
PITTSBURGH at NEW ENGLAND
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Teams |
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9-3 |
Overall Record |
12-0 |
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3-0 |
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4-0 |
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17.87 YPPA (4) |
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16.62 YPPA (9) |
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13.46 YPPS (6) |
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10.88 YPPS (1) |
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13.3 (13) |
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4.7 (1) |
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8.6 (4t) |
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8.6 (4t) |
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6.44 (12) |
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8.04 (2) |
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69.4 (2) |
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77.0 (10) |
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+11 (8) |
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+26 (1t) |
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+10.5 |
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-10.5 |
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49.5 |
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49.5 |
We'll, we've hammered home much about this game in recent days. It is, as we noted elsewhere, a classic example (perhaps one of the greatest ever, in fact) of the proverbial immovable object (Pittsburgh defense) vs. irresistible force (New England offense).
The Patriots rank No. 1 or 2 in all of our offensive Quality Stats. The Steelers rank in the top five in all of our defensive Quality Stats. The Patriots field the highest scoring offense in history. The Steelers field one of the top scoring defenses of the Super Bowl Era.
Both teams are undefeated vs. Quality Opponents, and willing by wide margins against good teams. The 4-0 Patriots are +16.5 PPG vs. winning teams; the 3-0 Steelers are +17.0 PPG vs. winning teams. Of course, there is a disparity in the quality of those Quality Teams. New England earned its four Quality Wins over 11-1 Dallas, 10-2 Indy, 7-5 San Diego and 7-5 Cleveland. Pittsburgh earned its three Quality Wins over 8-4 Seattle and 7-5 Cleveland (twice).
The Patriots seem to have been reeling late, but have still averaged 29.5 PPG in their two narrow wins over the past two weeks. The Steelers have not exactly been chewing up their opponents, either, outscoring the firm of Jets-Dolphins-Bengals in their last three games by a combined 43-29. And, of course, Pittsburgh has famously lost three road games to Arizona, Denver and the Jets, none of whom come close to the caliber of team from New England. On the road, the Steelers have a single road over Cincinnati since beating Cleveland in Week 1.
Pittsburgh has the defensive horses to stop New England. But it's hard to go against an undefeated team at home, especially with Pittsburgh's track record on the road this year.
The score: New England 24, Pittsburgh 17
SAN DIEGO at TENNESSEE
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Teams |
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7-5 |
Overall Record |
7-5 |
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1-3 |
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1-3 |
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17.23 YPPA (7) |
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14.64 YPPA (20) |
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12.98 YPPS (4) |
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16.34 YPPS (21) |
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15.0 (14t) |
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17.3 (17t) |
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13.7 (10t) |
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15 (12) |
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6.39 (13) |
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5.69 (21) |
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76.0 (9) |
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75.9 (8) |
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-4 (15t) |
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-5 (17t) |
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+/- 0 |
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+/- 0 |
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40 |
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40 |
Who'd have thought early in the ear that San Diego-Tennessee would be a pivotal game with playoff implications for both teams. Most thought San Diego would be on cruise control by now and that Tennessee would be har-pressed to surpass its eight-win performance of 2006.
But here they are, in a key AFC match-up. The Chargers are virtually assured an AFC West title with a victory, especially if Denver loses to Kansas City Sunday. The Titans are firmly lodged in the AFC wildcard race, but need a win to keep pace with 8-4 Jacksonville (who should beat Carolina) and 7-5 Cleveland (who should beat the Jets).
Neither team has done much to distinguish itself statistically, or from each other, as evidenced by their equal 1-3 records vs. Quality Opponents.
There are few mismatches, though an examination of our Quality Stats reveals one very, very big advantage for the Chargers: they've been far more efficient offensively, as evidenced by a No. 4 ranking in our Scoreability Index (to No. 21 for Tennessee), and defensively, as evidenced by a No. 7 ranking in our Bendability Index (to No. 20 for Tennessee.
These high rankings in these two categories tell us something we never expected to hear: Norv Turner's team is playing pretty smart football in all phases of the game. The Chargers may not seem like the overwhelming phyiscal power they were in 2006. But anytime you're ranked in the Top 7 in both Scoreability and Bendability, it tells you all phases of the game are working together well to make life easier for the others.
And it tells us that the Chargers will turn a pair of key Tennessee mistakes into a road victory.
The score: San Diego 27, Tennessee 24
ARIZONA at SEATTLE
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Teams |
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6-6 |
Overall Record |
8-4 |
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3-1 |
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1-2 |
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13.84 YPPA (27) |
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18.43 YPPA (3) |
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14.14 YPPS (8) |
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15.07 YPPS (13) |
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19.3 (23) |
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17.7 (19) |
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17 (19) |
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10.0 (7t) |
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6.54 (11) |
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6.29 (15) |
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81.2 (12) |
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68.5 (1) |
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-2 (13) |
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+6 (10) |
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+7 |
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-7 |
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44.5 |
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44.5 |
Here's real ball-buster of a game. Arizona last week had a clear lead in Quality Record over Cleveland (3-1 vs. 1-3), which in most cases would be an easy click to pick Arizona.
But these are the Cardinals, a team with the worst track record in sports of winning big games. So we picked against our own Quality Stats. Naturally, Arizona went out and won.
But the Cardinals could never, ever win two games in a row over Quality Teams. The Cardinals could never, ever beat a Quality Team on on the road. The Cardinals could never, ever beat a solid Seattle team twice in one season.
Could they?
The score: Seattle 31, Arizona 26
KANSAS CITY at DENVER
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Teams |
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4-8 |
Overall Record |
5-7 |
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1-4 |
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2-4 |
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16.34 YPPA (10) |
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12.84 YPPA (31) |
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19.58 YPPS (31) |
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17.40 YPPS (27) |
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30.7 (32) |
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8.3 (3) |
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10.0 (7t) |
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24 (29) |
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5.30 (26) |
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6.87 (7) |
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90.5 (28) |
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-17 (31t) |
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-3 (14) |
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+6.5 |
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-6.5 |
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37 |
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37 |
Two years ago the Chiefs scored like Tom Brady at a Roman orgy. These days, the Chiefs score like, well ... we do.
We knew two years ago when Herm Edwards took over Kansas City that he'd drive its once prolific offense into the dirt. No surprise there. But we never expected the thorough, complete, top-to-bottom dismantlement he's brought upon the organization, as evidenced by its No. 31 ranking in Scoreability, No. 32 ranking in our Offensive Hog Index, No. 26 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 31 ranking in Big Play Index.
The Broncos are pretty poor all around themselves, save for a No. 3 ranking for their traditionally tough Offensive Hogs and a surprisingly productive passing game (6.87 Passing Yards Per Attempt, No. 7).
The Broncos at least offer hope. Plus they've faced tougher commpetition, fared better against it, and are playing at home.
The score: Denver 21, Kansas City 14
INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE
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Teams |
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10-2 |
Overall Record |
4-8 |
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4-2 |
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0-5 |
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16.87 YPPA (8) |
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13.08 YPPA (30) |
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13.15 YPPS (5) |
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17.56 YPPS (28) |
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8.7 (4) |
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19.0 (20t) |
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19.3 (22t) |
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6.7 (2) |
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