New England Patriots	Teams	Baltimore Ravens
11-0	Overall Record	4-7
4-0	Quality Record	0-4
16.74 YPPA (9)	Bendability Index (rank)	13.19 YPPA (29)
10.81 YPPS (1)	Scoreability Index (rank)	17.81 YPPS (28)
4.3 (1)	Offensive Hog Index (rank)	19.3 (19t)
9.0 (6)	Defensive Hog Index (rank)	7.0 (1)
8.26 (1)	Passing YPA (rank)	4.89 (31)
75.2 (7)	Defensive Passer Rating (rank)	84.8 (19)
+25 (1)	Big Play Index (rank)	-16 (32)
-20	Line	+20
50.5	Over/Under	50.5

 

Would you believe the Ravens boast the third best run defense of the Super Bowl Era (based upon yards per attempt)?

 

Believe it.

 

Baltimore surrenders a mere 2.76 YPA on the ground. Since 1966, only two teams were stingier against the run: the 1998 Chargers (2.70 YPA) and, yes, the mighty 2000 Ravens (2.69 YPA).

 

But it really just goes to show you that the cliche of "stopping the run" to win games is pretty much bullshit if you can't do anything else well. Sure, the 2000 Ravens won the Super Bowl. But they did everything well on defense and played very efficiently on offense. Meanwhile, the 1998 Chargers went 5-11 and the 2007 Ravens right now are 4-7.

 

And if you're looking for a team that can't do anything else well, you'll find a perfect example in these 2007 Ravens.

 

With the exception of Baltimore's No. 1-ranked Defensive Hogs, tonight's Patriots-Ravens game is a statistical mismatch in every way, shape and form.

 

The Patriots rank in the Top 10 in all seven of our Quality Stats, including No. 1 rankings in Scoreability, Offensive Hog Index, Passing Yards Per Attempt and Big Play Index. The Ravens rank in the Bottom 5 in four of our seven Quality Stats, including a No. 31 ranking in Passing Yards Per Attempt and a No. 32 position in Big Play Index.

 

The Patriots are also a league-leading 4-0 vs. Quality Opponents, while outscoring these winning teams by 17.5 PPG (36.0 to 19.5). That's no small feat, considering that this collection of four Quality Teams includes 11-1 Dallas, 10-2 Indy and 7-5 AFC West-leading San Diego. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 0-4 vs. Quality Teams and have been outscored by better than 2 to 1 in those four games (16.0 to 32.5).

 

Even Baltimore's seeming advantages are no advantages: its No. 1 Defensive Hogs face in New England the NFL's No. 1 Offensive Hogs. Plus, as the Patriots showed last week, they're willing to all but abandon the run if they have to (or, in last week's case, if they want to) and can still find a way to win.

 

Some "pundits" have fallen into the trap of measuring the Ravens by reading the names on the back of the team's jerseys, as if this somehow qualifies as analysis. SI's Peter King apparently confused this juvenile method with analysis in his recent Monday Morning Quarterback column, raving about Baltimore's big-name talent and reporting (we shit you not here) that New England is entering a "hornet's nest" tonight.

 

Apparenly, King missed the fact that Baltimore's pass defense is a mediocre 19th (84.8 in Defensive Passer Rating) and finds itself up against arguably the greatest passing attack in history. King also missed the fact that Baltimore ranks No. 29 in defensive efficiency, as measured by our Bendability Index (13.19 Yards Per Point Allowed). Basically, Baltimore opponents always find themselves in great field position and barely even need to move the ball on offense to score. Bottom line here: we don't care what the names on the jerseys say. This is not a very good defensive team.

 

The Patriots are 20-point favorites. After last week's narrow three-point win over Philly, it's easy to forget that New England is still 9-2 ATS and still outscores its opponents by an all-time record pace of 23.4 PPG (40.2-16.8). And the Ravens, if not the worst team the Patriots have faced this year, are clearly the most flawed and unbalanced.

 

We'll roll our dice with the team chasing perfection.