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Friday Beer Run: Week 13
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 30, 2007
Our picks against the spread have started to meander the past twl weeks, though we remain on something of a pretty good roll over the past five weeks.
After a slow start, we're just four games over .500 picking games ATS.
But over the last few weeks, our Quality Stats have been truly dominant. We're 23-13 (.639) against the spread over the last five weeks.
We barely kept our heads above water (our water is flavored with malt & hops) in Week 12, going just 4-5 ATS. But we were 8-1 picking straight up winners.
Through Week 12 of the season, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are:
- 52-30 straight up
- 43-39 against the spread
Here's a look at our Friday Beer Run six-pack of Week 13 games.
CLEVELAND at ARIZONA
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Teams |
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7-4 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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1-3 |
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3-1 |
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14.07 YPPA (24) |
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13.49 YPPA (28) |
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12.26 YPPS (3) |
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14.46 YPPS (11) |
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10.3 (6t) |
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21.0 (25t) |
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25.7 (29t) |
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17.3 (21) |
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7.13 (5) |
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6.60 (9) |
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90.0 (26) |
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82.2 (14) |
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-2 (16) |
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-6 (20t) |
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+/- 0 |
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+/- 0 |
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51 |
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51 |
If Super Bowls were awarded to teams that expended high draft picks on big-name receiving talent, Cleveland and Arizona would by dynasties.
Sadly, they’re not. The Browns, at least, are up and comers, thanks in large part to stellar play of newcomer Derek Anderson who, if he played in Dallas, would be receiving just about the same kind of hype currently being heaped upon Tony Romo (he of the 22 career NFL starts Romos).
The Cardinals are the same old miserable sad-sack Cardinals, finding new and creative ways to lose. Last week’s 37-31 loss to San Francisco should be painted across the Sistine Chapel of Loserville: passing for nearly 500 yards, only to suffer a strip-sack in their own end zone in overtime – against one of the worst teams in football. Michelangelo only wished he were so brilliant.
Both defenses are hugely suspect, and, for all the offensive fireworks, both teams are in the negative on the Big Play Index. The Browns, meanwhile, have the advantage in five of our seven Quality Stats.
The Cardinals, surprisingly, have a huge advantage in our Quality Wins Quotient, at 3-1. We know we normally put a lot of stock in that figure. But, in this case, something stinks in the state of Arizona. We’re going with the Browns.
The score: Cleveland 70, Arizona 58
DETROIT at MINNESOTA
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Teams |
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6-5 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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1-2 |
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2-4 |
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14.92 YPPA (16) |
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17.34 YPPA (6) |
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14.26 YPPS (9) |
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15.48 YPPS (14) |
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25.7 (29) |
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20.0 (21t) |
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17.0 (18t) |
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17.7 (22) |
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6.11 (17) |
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5.62 (20) |
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93.0 (29) |
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83.4 (15) |
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+3 (12) |
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+25 (1t) |
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+4 |
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-4 |
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45.5 |
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45.5 |
This one’s kind of a no-brainer in our book.
Although the teams are polar opposites in terms of how they approach the game, the bottom line is the same for both teams. They’re average in Quality Stats, and average on the field.
The Lions are known for their passing game and the Vikings are knocked for their poor pass defense, but in reality they’re about even. Detroit is No. 17 in passing YPA, Minnesota is No. 15 in Defensive Passer rating.
The main difference is in Big Plays, where the Vikings are an incredible +25 on the season. From what we can tell, the average Big Play is worth somewhere between 3-5 points on the scoreboard, and the Vikings are good for two net Big Plays a game.
In an even game, give Minny eight points for Big Play-ability plus three more for home-field advantage – which make the four-point line in favor of Minnesota look quite appealing.
The score: Minnesota 27, Detroit 16
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS
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Teams |
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8-3 |
Overall Record |
9-2 |
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3-2 |
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3-2 |
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19.53 YPPA (2) |
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16.94 YPPA (7) |
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14.99 YPPS (13) |
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13.23 YPPS (5) |
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12.0 (10) |
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8.7 (3t) |
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16.7 (16t) |
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17.0 (18t) |
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6.44 (12) |
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6.87 (7) |
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78.3 (11) |
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69.7 (1) |
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+16 (4) |
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+4 (10t) |
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+6.5 |
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-6.5 |
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45 |
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45 |
The national hype around this game is so small that Indy’s publicist blamed in on shrinkage while covering up his publicity campaign with a beach towel. Peyton Manning, meanwhile, threatened to fire his personal publicist and hire the woman who handled the whole Terrell Owens “suicide” fiasco of a few years ago so effectively.
It’s too bad. This could prove to be one of the most important games of the year in the AFC, perhaps second only to the New England-Indy donnybrook a few weeks back.
By now you know the story: Jacksonville has been sniffing Indy’s ass in the standings for years now … always threatening to leap on its back and close the deal, but never quite getting there. The Colts, meanwhile, have been laughing all the way 12 wins or more each season since John Madden was just waist wide to an elephant.
Jacksonville has advantages with the second most effective defense in football, based upon our Bendability Index. The Jags are also the No. 4-ranked Big Play team in football, at +16 in the Big Play Index.
If the Jags win, it could prove one of those watershed games in which the mantle of power is passed from one team to next. We thought in the past the Jaguars were ready to take that next step. But we were wrong. Until we see Cold, Hard evidence, we’ll stick by the champs, who despite their recent struggles still rank in the Top 10 in six of our seven Quality Stats.
The score: Indy 21, Jacksonville 20
NEW YORK GIANTS at CHICAGO
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Teams |
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7-4 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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1-3 |
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1-5 |
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13.77 YPPA (26) |
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15.60 YPPA (13) |
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14.32 YPPS (10) |
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14.93 YPPS (12) |
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10.0 (5) |
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27.7 (31) |
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8.7 (5) |
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11.3 (9) |
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5.60 (21) |
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5.58 (23) |
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84.6 (18) |
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91.9 (28) |
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-1 (15) |
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-9 (25t) |
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-1.5 |
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+1.5 |
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41 |
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41 |
A colorblind one-armed man would have better luck solving Rubik’s Cube than he would figuring out the riddle that is these two teams.
The Giants are the definitive big-name underachievers, who appear about to embark on their annual second-half swan dive into oblivion. The Bears are the defending conference champs who turned into a pigskin pumpkin this season, thanks in large part to the organization’s epic, Gandolfian 57-year quest to find a franchise quarterback to replace Sid Luckman.
Last year, the Bears were dominant in many of our Quality Stats. This year, they’re rank in the Top 10 in just one, with their proud Defensive Hogs hanging on to the No. 9 spot in our measure of defensive frontlines. Everywhere else you see a team mired in anything from mediocrity to suckosity – like a group of Offensive Hogs with more holes in it than an O.J. Simpson alibi. Even in terms of Big Plays – what you would think is a Chicago strength based upon the explosive play of Devin Hester – the Bears are among the league sewer rats.
The Giants have at least shown some signs of life – No. 5 rankings in both Hog Indexes, for example – even if their big-name passing game has all the firepower of the French Army circa 1940.
Even on the road, the Giants should be able to fend of oblivion for at least one more week, while the Bears kerplunk into a big, wet pool party of irrelevance.
Tell the 49ers we said “Hi!”
The score: N.Y. Giants 24, Chicago 21
NEW YORK JETS at MIAMI
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Teams |
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2-9 |
Overall Record |
0-11 |
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1-3 |
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0-5 |
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14.49 YPPA (22) |
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12.91 YPPA (31) |
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17.07 YPPS (22) |
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17.44 YPPS (25) |
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20.7 (24) |
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14.3 (14t) |
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25.7 (29t) |
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24.0 (28) |
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5.36 (26) |
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5.32 (27) |
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94.5 (31) |
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89.9 (25) |
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-8 (23t) |
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-11 (29t) |
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+1 |
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-1 |
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38 |
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38 |
When an 0-11 team is favored to win an NFL game in Week 13, well, the Cold, Hard Football Facts get interested.
And the question we need to figure out is this: will the Dolphins get their first win of the season?
Start with the fact that the Jets have firmly established themselves as terrible. They are in the bottom 11 in every Quality Stat there is, truly a remarkable feat.
At least the Dolphins have one relative strength – their offensive line, tied for 14th in our Offensive Hog Index. And they’ve been pretty decent against non-Quality teams this far, losing their six games by an average of less than a TD.
Faint praise, for sure. They’re plenty bad, as their record displays.
But with the offenseless Jets coming in minus WRs Lavvy Coles and Jerrico Cotchery, the Dolphins playing better defense (36 points allowed in four games) and the game in Miami ….
The score: Miami 16, New York Jets 10
SEATTLE at PHILADELPHIA
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Teams |
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7-4 |
Overall Record |
5-6 |
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1-2 |
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1-4 |
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18.86 YPPA (3) |
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16.04 YPPA (12) |
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15.53 YPPS (15) |
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16.75 YPPS (21) |
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20.3 (23) |
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10.3 (6t) |
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9.3 (7) |
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15.0 (10t) |
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6.41 (14) |
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6.28 (16) |
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87.4 (22) |
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+6 (9) |
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-7 (22) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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41 |
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41 |
The Eagles’ excellent performance against New England Sunday night earned them a three-point spread at home against a Seattle team that has a significant edge in most of the Quality Stats and a two-game lead in the standings.
However, Seattle has notably fattened up against skinny opposition this year, with only three Quality Opponents on their back schedule. The Eagles don’t qualify as Quality, but they’re at least pretty good and playing at home.
Philly has an edge in the trenches, but not a big one, and their average passing game seems likely to struggle against Seattle’s No. 4 pass defense (72.6 opp. rating).
The key number in this one might be the Eagles’ Scoreability (No. 21) vs. the Seahawks’ Bendability (No. 3) – while Seattle is scoring TDs, the Eagles will likely have to settle for FGs.
We wouldn’t be shocked with any result, but the Eagles’ 1-4 Quality Record and the Seahawks’ 7-4 record don’t add up to a Philly win in our book.
The score: Seattle 24, Philadelphia 19
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