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Troll Report: The Relativity Index
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 27, 2007
By Brian Sheppard
Cold, Hard Football Facts theorist of relativity
Media hype tends to wildly speculate on the future, totally unrelated to the facts at hand. That kind of baseless, rumor-filled, speculative talk drives attention, which drives sales, which explains why media moguls work in big executive suites and drive Mercedes.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts focus instead on the harsh, inalterable reality of raw numbers. That kind of talk drives the most deadly accurate analysis in the history of Pigskin Kind, which explains why the Cold, Hard Football Facts work in their cardboard-box world headquarters and drive a 1976 Pontiac Ventura.
But it also leaves you better, more well-educated students of the gridiron.
Take, for example, the Relativity Index, which we introduced last week. This index calculates how NFL teams perform relative to their opponents and, like all of the Cold, Hard Football Facts existing Quality Stats, spits it back out in an easy to understand number. The Relatively Index offers the margin by which a team outscores the average game of its opponents (or the margin by which it is outscored).
Let's have a look at what the Relatively Index tells us this week, starting with the big NFC Game of the Century.
PACKERS vs. COWBOYS
How about the big Packers vs. Cowboys matchup? The Packers have won with a combination of good defense and good offense. The Cowboys won with a great offense and an average defense.
But at the end of the day, the teams have performed about the same in this season relative too their opponents, with a slight edge to Dallas.
- The Cowboys rank No. 3 in the Relativity Index, outscoring opponents by an average of 12.6 PPG, relative to their average game.
- The Packers rank No. 4 in the Relativity Index, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.0 PPG relative to their average game.
Will the Cowboys win? Well, they have demonstrated a slight edge in Relative performance, and they are playing at home. These facts tell us that much. Other facts may tell you other things. For example, the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Standings give a distinct edge to Green Bay.
But if you want to know who will win, then just watch the game. It will only take three hours and you'll save a lot of time otherwise spent pondering the unknown future while pulling lint from your belly button.
THE MIGHTY PATRIOTS and COLTS
The Patriots continue to lord over the league in historic fashion, even after their slim 31-28 win over the Eagles. New England outscores opponents by 25.7 PPG relative to their average performance. But you already knew that.
The Colts, meanwhile, have gone through some well-publicized struggles in recent weeks: they lost to New England and San Diego in consecutive weeks, before eking out a tough 13-10 win at home over a Kansas City team aspiring to mediocrity.
Yet the Colts remain second only to New England on the Relativity Index, outscoring opponents by 14.3 PPG relative to their average performance.
Bottom line: the hype surrounding a postseason rematch has clearly diminished in recent week. But an Indy-New England postseason collision course seems well on track.
WINLESS MIAMI
How about those winless Dolphins?
They are not as hapless as their 0-11 record suggests. They have been on the losing side of a bunch of close games – six of their 11 losses, including last night’s 3-0 mudbath defeat at Pittsburgh, have been by three points. And the Dolphins have played a tough schedule, as shown by their opponent's average score 23.6 - 22.0. Overall, Miami has been outscored by 6.9 PPG relative to the average performance of its opponents.
To put that margin into context, the hapless Rams and 49ers of the NFC West have each been outscored by 12.1 PPG relative to the average performance over their opponents.
What you can say is that teams that have a Relativity Index score like the Dolphins would usually be more like a 3-8 team. Like the teams around them in the Relativity Index.
2007 RELATIVITY INDEX (through Week 12)
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Team |
PPGF |
PPGA |
Opp-PF |
Opp-PA |
Relativity |
|
1 |
New England |
40.2 |
16.8 |
22.7 |
20.4 |
25.7 |
|
2 |
Indianapolis |
28.1 |
15.6 |
21.7 |
19.8 |
14.3 |
|
3 |
Dallas |
32.5 |
20.1 |
21.1 |
20.9 |
12.6 |
|
4 |
Green Bay |
26.9 |
16.8 |
21.0 |
21.1 |
10.0 |
|
5 |
Pittsburgh |
24.7 |
13.2 |
21.6 |
24.4 |
8.8 |
|
6 |
San Diego |
23.7 |
20.3 |
23.0 |
20.0 |
6.5 |
|
7 |
Tampa Bay |
19.5 |
14.9 |
20.9 |
21.3 |
4.1 |
|
8 |
Seattle |
22.3 |
16.6 |
20.8 |
22.6 |
3.8 |
|
9 |
Philadelphia |
21.3 |
19.8 |
23.9 |
21.6 |
3.7 |
|
10 |
Jacksonville |
22.1 |
17.7 |
20.0 |
20.7 |
3.7 |
|
11 |
Minnesota |
21.5 |
20.6 |
22.4 |
20.6 |
2.6 |
|
12 |
Cleveland |
28.6 |
28.3 |
21.2 |
19.6 |
2.0 |
|
13 |
NY Giants |
23.0 |
21.9 |
21.5 |
21.5 |
1.1 |
|
14 |
Washington |
19.4 |
21.8 |
24.2 |
20.9 |
0.9 |
|
15 |
Cincinnati |
25.5 |
26.5 |
21.1 |
20.4 |
-0.3 |
|
16 |
Detroit |
23.4 |
24.5 |
20.9 |
21.0 |
-1.1 |
|
17 |
Chicago |
20.1 |
22.8 |
22.4 |
21.2 |
-1.5 |
|
18 |
Tennessee |
18.5 |
20.1 |
21.0 |
21.5 |
-2.0 |
|
19 |
New Orleans |
22.1 |
22.9 |
18.5 |
20.2 |
-2.5 |
|
20 |
Arizona |
23.1 |
23.5 |
18.3 |
21.0 |
-3.2 |
|
21 |
Houston |
22.1 |
23.9 |
19.9 |
21.3 |
-3.2 |
|
22 |
Kansas City |
14.7 |
18.7 |
22.8 |
22.2 |
-3.3 |
|
23 |
Denver |
20.1 |
26.8 |
20.9 |
19.5 |
-5.3 |
|
24 |
Buffalo |
15.2 |
23.5 |
24.8 |
22.5 |
-5.9 |
|
25 |
Oakland |
18.2 |
21.8 |
20.2 |
23.3 |
-6.7 |
|
26 |
Miami |
16.6 |
25.2 |
23.6 |
22.0 |
-6.9 |
|
27 |
Carolina |
15.7 |
22.1 |
20.2 |
21.8 |
-7.9 |
|
28 |
NY Jets |
16.5 |
25.3 |
22.5 |
22.1 |
-8.4 |
|
29 |
Baltimore |
16.5 |
22.1 |
21.8 |
25.2 |
-8.9 |
|
30 |
Atlanta |
14.1 |
22.2 |
19.9 |
21.1 |
-9.4 |
|
31 |
St. Louis |
15.3 |
25.5 |
20.3 |
22.1 |
-12.1 |
|
32 |
San Francisco |
13.6 |
23.1 |
19.8 |
22.5 |
-12.1 |
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