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Friday Beer Run: Week 12
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 22, 2007
As you might expect, the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats indicators have generally grown stronger as the season has progressed.
We've overcome a slow start to be five games over .500 against the spread picking the toughest, most challenging games of each week.
And over the last few weeks, our Quality Stats have been truly dominant. We're 19-8 (.704) against the spread over the last four week. You find a bettor who wouldn't chew off his own left testicle for that kind of four-week performance, and we'll show you a chick who loves to gamble.
We barely kept our heads above water (our water is flavored with malt & hops) in Week 11, going just 3-3 ATS and 4-2 straight up.
Through Week 11 of the season, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are (not including Thanksgiving Day's Week 12 games):
- 44-29 straight up
- 39-34 against the spread
- 28-43 vs. the over/under
Here's a look at a six-pack of Week 12 games.
MINNESOTA at NEW YORK GIANTS
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Teams |
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4-6 |
Overall Record |
7-3 |
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0-4 |
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1-3 |
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17.28 YPPA (5) |
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15.34 YPPA (15) |
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17.45 YPPS (25) |
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14.04 YPPS (8) |
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23rd (tie) |
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5th |
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17.7 (19t) |
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10.3 (6t) |
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5.50 (23) |
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5.77 (20) |
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|
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82.5 (16) |
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+17 (3) |
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+7 (9t) |
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+7 |
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-7 |
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40.5 |
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40.5 |
Few teams have been more exciting with less to show for it than the Vikings. Up until this week, they led the NFL in our Big Play Index ... but now without Adrian Peterson, they've tumbled all the way down to fourth. And even with a defense that surrenders fewer than 3.0 yards per rush attempt and is among the league leaders in our Bendability Index, the defensive unit has struggled overall (surrendering 21.0 PPG) as the team sits at 4-6.
Few teams have been more talent-laden with less to show for it than the Giants. The roster is filled with big-name offensive weapons, yet sits at just +7 in our Big Play Index and 20th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. However, the offensive line has played well, as evidenced by its No. 5 ranking in our Offensive Hog Index, and the Giants score fairly efficiently, as noted by a No. 8 ranking in our Scoreability Index.
Look for a great battle in the trenches between New York's tough offensive line and Minnesota's solid defensive line. And look for the Giants to be able to hold serve against a handicapped Minnesota team.
The score: N.Y. Giants 27, Minnesota 17
BUFFALO at JACKSONVILLE
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Teams |
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5-5 |
Overall Record |
7-3 |
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0-4 |
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2-2 |
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16.88 YPPA (8) |
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19.40 YPPA (3) |
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17.28 YPPS (24) |
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15.58 YPPS (13) |
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29th |
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13th |
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29.3 (32) |
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14.3 (13) |
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5.82 (19) |
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6.27 (15) |
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88.0 (22) |
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79.5 (13) |
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+8 (8) |
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+12 (5) |
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+8 |
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-8 |
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36 |
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36 |
We said all along that Buffalo's four-game win streak was a mirage, a deceptive collection of victories over third-rate opponents. The world got proof we were right in the 56-10 bloodbath of a beatting the Bills suffered at the hands of New England last week.
The Jaguars obviously won't provide the same kind of offensive firepower than New England did. But they do pose one of the more formidable challenges Buffalo has faced this year.
Look for the Jaguars offensive line to manhandle the Bills defensive line and for Jacksonville to march away with a rellatively easy victory.
The score: Jacksonville 24, Buffalo 14
HOUSTON at CLEVELAND
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Teams |
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5-5 |
Overall Record |
6-4 |
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0-3 |
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1-3 |
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13.88 YPPA (26) |
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13.82 YPPA (27) |
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15.50 YPPS (12) |
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12.03 YPPS (2) |
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16th |
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7th (tie) |
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26.7 (30) |
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26 (29) |
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7.26 (3) |
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7.15 (5) |
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85.9 (19) |
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91.0 (28) |
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-2 (16t) |
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-4 (18) |
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+3.5 |
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-3.5 |
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51 |
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51 |
Derek Anderson and the Browns have generated all the hype this year for their unexpected offensive fireworks. But would you believe that Houston, led by Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels, have actually been more effective passing the ball?
Believe it. The Texans average 7.26 Yards Per Passing Attempt (third in the NFL behind only New England and Dallas) to 7.15 for the Browns.
Of course, that advantage hasn't mattered where it matters most: on the scoreboard. The Browns are much better in scoring efficiency, as measured by a No. 2 ranking in our Scoreability Index (behind only New England) and by a 288 to 226 advantage over the Texans in points scored.
Cleveland's troubled defense (No. 27 in our Bendability Index, No. 28 in Defensive Passer Rating) will make for an easy day for Schaub & Co. But the Browns should have enough firepower to hold serve at home.
The score: Cleveland 31, Houston 28
WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
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Teams |
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5-5 |
Overall Record |
6-4 |
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1-4 |
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1-4 |
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14.58 YPPA (22) |
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18.88 YPPA (4) |
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16.33 YPPS (16) |
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16.64 YPPS (21) |
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14th |
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6th |
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17.7 (19t) |
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13.3 (11t) |
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6.07 (18) |
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6.86 (7) |
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86.0 (20) |
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70.2 (1) |
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-5 (19t) |
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+9 (7) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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38 |
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38 |
Here's a game with playoff implications that could reverberate throughout the NFL's senior circuit.
The Redskins are still in the playoff hunt, despite their oh-so-narrow loss to the Cowboys last week. A win keeps them alive. A loss nearly spells doom. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, can all but wrap up a playoff spot Sunday with five games still to play. The Bucs currently have a two-game lead over division mates Carolina and New Orleans, who face each other Sunday. The loser of Saints-Panthers is three games out, and Tampa already has head-to-head wins over both of those teams.
Washington is clearly the more desperate team. But fuzzy, unquantifiable emotions like "desperation" hold no water in the eyes of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, where we see almost every single statistical match-up in Tampa Bay's favor. Washington's lone advantage is a slightly better ranking in offensive efficiency, as measured by our Scoreability Index.
Otherwise, it's all Tampa, and will be again on Sunday.
The score: Tampa Bay 26, Washington 21
PHILADELPHIA at NEW ENGLAND
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Teams |
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5-5 |
Overall Record |
10-0 |
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1-3 |
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3-0 |
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16.50 YPPA (11) |
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17.24 YPPA (6) |
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17.13 YPPS (23) |
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10.63 YPPS (1) |
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9th |
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1st |
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12.3 (10) |
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8 (4) |
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6.12 (17) |
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8.57 (1) |
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87.0 (21) |
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74.0 (6) |
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-2 (16t) |
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+20 (1) |
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+22 |
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-22 |
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50 |
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50 |
Normally, we wouldn't pick a game against unequals like this. But the 22-point spread is just too historic for us not to chime in on it. But let's make this short and sweet.
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The Eagles are not a bad team. They rank no better than 9th and no worse than 23rd in any of our Quality Stats.
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The Patriots are a dominant team. They rank No. 1 in four of our seven Quality Stats and no worse than 6th in any one of them.
And, even with the ridiculous number of points they're giving each week, the Patriots are 9-1 against the spread this season. The smart money is on New England to cover a shocking 22-point spread against a decent team.
The score: New England 40, Philadelphia 17
BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO
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Teams |
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4-6 |
Overall Record |
5-5 |
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0-3 |
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1-3 |
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13.62 YPPA (29) |
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16.92 YPPA (7) |
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18.04 YPPS (27) |
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13.27 YPPS (5) |
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17th (tie) |
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20th (tie) |
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3 (1) |
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19.7 (24) |
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4.96 (31) |
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6.35 (12) |
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80.7 (15) |
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78.1 (11) |
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-13 (31) |
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