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Turkey Day picks: just add gravy
November 22, 2007

It's Thanksgiving morning, and we were so busy staying up late celebrating Thanksgiving eve (with a case of Schlitz Light and 10 cubic feet of cheese popcorn) that we almost forgot to pick the games!
 
For the season now, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are:
  • 44-29 straight up
  • 39-34 against the spread
  • 28-43 on the over/under
Let's add some more wins, shall we? (Sorry, we should have tried a Thanksgiving pun here, but frankly we're a little sick to our stomachs already).
 
GREEN BAY at DETROIT

Green Bay Packers

How they stack up
9-1
Overall Record
6-4
1-0
1-1
19.74 YPPA (1)
15.23 YPPA (16)
14.30 YPPS (9)
14.44 YPPS (11)
12th
31st
3rd 11th (tie)
7.29 (3)
6.11 (17)
78.7 (12)
89.3 (23)
+18 (2)
+5 (12)
-3.5
+3.5
47
47
 
The Packers, like the Giants did a week ago, have a huge advantage with their No. 3 Defensive Hogs vs. Detroit's No. 31 Offensive Hogs. That mismatch manifested itself to the tune of no running game and three INTs for the Detroit offense.
 
And Green Bay's defense is a step up from New York's, as is their offense (top 12 in all three of our offensive indicators). Add a +18 in Big Plays to Detroit's ever-changing +5 mark, and this is a mismatch. The Packers are better than the Lions in all of the Quality Stats, and will be better on the field as well.

The score: Green Bay 27, Detroit 14
 
 
NEW YORK JETS at DALLAS

New York Jets

How they stack up
Dallas Cowboys
2-8
Overall Record
9-1
1-2
2-1
15.10 YPPA (19)
14.27 YPPA (24)
16.34 YPPS (18)
12.13 YPPS (3)
20th (tie)
2nd
28th
5th
5.61 (22)
8.09 (13)
93.7 (30)
75.4 (8)
-6 (23t)
+10 (6)
+14
-14
47.5
47.5
 
Despite their record, the Jets are closer to being mediocre than terrible. Their defense, which stepped up last week in the win over Pittsburgh, showed it can be better than its subpar numbers. And the offense has been decent, although Chad Pennington was performing at a higher level than his replacement, Kellen Clemens.
 
Still, the Cowboys have a huge edge across the board here. Their edge in the trenches is huge, with the No. 2 Offensive Hogs vs. New York's No. 28 Defensive Hogs, and the No. 5 Defensive Hogs vs. New York's so-so O-line (No. 20).
 
But the Jets have only lost by more than 14 points once (the opener vs. New England), and are coming off their two best games of the season. They won't win, but should keep it respectable.
 
The score: Dallas 31, New York 24
 
 
INDIANAPOLIS at ATLANTA

Indianapolis Colts

How they stack up
Atlanta Falcons
8-2
Overall Record
3-7
3-1
0-4
14.84 YPPA (19)
15.11 YPPA (18)
13.40 YPPS (6)
20.51 YPPS (32)
3rd
25th
22nd
16th (tie)
7.13 (6)
5.43 (25)
72.0 (4)
76.9 (10)
+4 (13)
-5 (19t)
-12
+12
41
41
 
Peyton Manning runs into another good secondary this week -- the Falcons' best number in the Quality Stats is their No. 10 ranking in Defensive Passer Rating (76.9).
 
And the Falcons should be able to move the ball a bit on offense -- their short approach should work well against the Colts' No. 22 Defensive Hogs and that Cover Two.
 
You could almost make a case that Atlanta has a chance in this game, except for one glaring problem. The Falcons are 0-4 against Quality Teams, and have been outscored by an average of 14.5 points in those games. And they can't score touchdowns, either (No. 32 in scoreability), something they'll need to do against the Colts.
 
The score: Indianapolis 28, Atlanta 12
 
 
BONUS BONZO PICKS!
We could barely get Bonzo up to flip coins for today's Thursday games. He kept screaming at us in that weird monkey voice (sounds a little like a car crash, but with bad breath), and only calmed down after we promised he could watch the "Golden Girls" marathon on USA.
 
Anyway, here's who his random coin flips favor (and check back in for his full picks later -- the Son of a Chimp is like 30 games over .500 vs. the spread!):
 
Green Bay at Detroit: GB
New York at Dallas: DAL
Indianapolis at Atlanta: ATL 
 
 

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