|
The Theory of Football Relativity
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 18, 2007
(Prolific stat-crunching Cold, Hard Football Facts reader and e-mailer Brian Sheppard chimes in this week with the Theory of Football Relativity. He stacks up each NFL team based upon how many points they exceed (or fall short of) the average performance of their opponents. His chart below makes for interesting study. His flowery, borderline obnoxious prose, and overinflated sense of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, meanwhile, fits right in with our style. Nice job, Brian!)
By Brian Sheppard
Bloodthirsty Shut-In
The Cold Hard Football Facts work relentlessly to distill the fundamental facts of football. Just like Galileo, Newton and Einstein elucidated the laws of the universe, the Cold, Hard Football Facts have set down the laws that govern Planet Pigskin.
Here, for the first time, we announce to the world our discovery of The Theory of Football Relativity.
This pigskin maxim states that the only way to measure a team is to compare its performance against the standards set by its opponents.
This simple, yet profound, observation sets aside hyperbole, punditry, and authority to focus on the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
Einstein's Theory of Relativity states that the light from faraway stars is bent by the gravity of our sun. The pigskin parallel, the Theory of Football Relativity, predicts that the record of a football team is bent by the strength of its opponents.
The Theory of Football Relativity cannot be fooled by appearances! Reputations mean nothing.
Indianapolis, for example, has fallen upon Dickensian hard times over the past two weeks. Don't be fooled. Despite two consecutive heart-breaking losses to fellow AFC division leaders, the Colts remain one of the most dominant teams in football. They are 16.3 PPG better than the average performance of their opponents.
- The Colts score 29.4 PPG against teams who otherwise allow an average of 19.4 PPG, a whopping +10.0 PPG difference.
- The Colts surrender 16.6 PPG against teams who otherwise score an average of 22.9 PPG, a difference in Indy's favor of +6.3 PPG.
At the other end of the spectrum is Baltimore. The Ravens were a dominant 13-3 team last year. This season, they've whimpered to a disappointing 4-5 record. But even that record doesn't tell us truly how bad they Ravens have been. The Theory of Football Relativity, however, does yield this information.
The Ravens are -9.2 PPG worse than the average performance of their opponents.
- The Ravens score a terrible 15.3 PPG against defenses that otherwise surrender 25.5 PPG, a margin of -10.2 PPG (indicating Baltimore has played some very poor defenses this season).
- The Ravens surrender 19.8 PPG against teams that otherwise score an average of 20.8 PPG, indicating their highly heralded defense is, based upon the ability of the opposing offenses, just 1.0 PPG better than average.
How bad has it been for Baltimore this year? Well, only lowly NFC West uncompetitors San Francisco and St. Louis are worse than the Ravens, based upon the Theory of Football Relativity.
Here's how every team stacks up through nine games this season. For an explanation of each column, scroll to the bottom of the chart.
THEORY OF FOOTBALL RELATIVITY rankings (through Week 10)
|
|
Team |
PPG |
PPGA |
OppPA |
OppPPG |
Relativity |
|
1 |
New England |
39.4 |
16.3 |
21.3 |
24.4 |
+26.2 |
|
2 |
Indianapolis |
29.4 |
16.6 |
19.4 |
22.9 |
+16.3 |
|
3 |
Dallas |
32.9 |
21.7 |
19.6 |
21.7 |
+13.3 |
|
4 |
Pittsburgh |
28.1 |
14.0 |
22.9 |
21.5 |
+12.8 |
|
5 |
Green Bay |
25.3 |
15.8 |
20.5 |
20.3 |
+9.4 |
|
6 |
San Diego |
23.6 |
20.6 |
19.9 |
22.8 |
+5.9 |
|
7 |
NY Giants |
24.4 |
21.1 |
21.5 |
21.6 |
+3.5 |
|
8 |
Tennessee |
19.8 |
16.9 |
20.3 |
20.8 |
+3.3 |
|
9 |
Seattle |
21.2 |
15.7 |
23.3 |
21.0 |
+3.2 |
|
10 |
Tampa Bay |
18.2 |
16.0 |
20.9 |
21.8 |
+3.1 |
|
11 |
Jacksonville |
20.3 |
18.2 |
20.1 |
20.4 |
+2.3 |
|
12 |
Philadelphia |
21.0 |
20.0 |
21.4 |
22.5 |
+2.1 |
|
13 |
Cleveland |
28.3 |
29.3 |
19.5 |
22.3 |
+1.8 |
|
14 |
Washington |
19.7 |
21.4 |
21.5 |
24.0 |
+0.7 |
|
15 |
Minnesota |
18.4 |
20.9 |
20.2 |
22.3 |
-0.3 |
|
16 |
Cincinnati |
24.3 |
27.9 |
19.0 |
21.1 |
-1.5 |
|
17 |
Chicago |
17.9 |
20.8 |
21.5 |
22.7 |
-1.7 |
|
18 |
Detroit |
24.6 |
24.0 |
20.4 |
18.1 |
-1.8 |
|
19 |
Buffalo |
15.9 |
18.4 |
24.0 |
24.5 |
-2.1 |
|
20 |
Arizona |
20.9 |
21.7 |
20.1 |
18.6 |
-2.3 |
|
21 |
Houston |
22.6 |
25.1 |
19.9 |
19.0 |
-3.5 |
|
22 |
New Orleans |
22.4 |
24.8 |
19.0 |
17.8 |
-3.5 |
|
23 |
Carolina |
16.7 |
20.1 |
21.5 |
19.6 |
-5.4 |
|
24 |
Kansas City |
15.0 |
19.2 |
22.8 |
21.0 |
-6.0 |
|
25 |
Denver |
17.0 |
26.4 |
18.9 |
21.7 |
-6.7 |
|
26 |
Oakland |
17.6 |
21.6 |
24.2 |
20.8 |
-7.3 |
|
27 |
Miami |
19.6 |
28.6 |
22.6 |
23.7 |
-7.9 |
|
28 |
Atlanta |
15.0 |
20.2 |
21.9 |
19.0 |
-8.2 |
|
29 |
NY Jets |
17.7 |
25.3 |
22.1 |
21.3 |
-8.5 |
|
30 |
Baltimore |
15.3 |
19.8 |
25.5 |
20.8 |
-9.2 |
|
31 |
San Francisco |
11.6 |
23.3 |
21.6 |
20.0 |
-13.4 |
|
32 |
St. Louis |
15.1 |
27.6 |
22.2 |
20.0 |
-14.6 |
PPG - The average PPG scored
PPFA - The average PPG allowed
OppPA - The average PPG allowed by that team's opponents in their other eight games
OppPPG - The average PPG scored by that team's opponents in their other eight games
Relativity - The average difference in scoring margin It's is obtained by taking the difference between PPG-OppPA and adding it to the difference between OppPPG-PPGA.
So in this example, New England scores 39.4 PPG against teams that allow 21.3 PPG (+18.1) against their other opponents; New England allows 16.3 PPG against teams who score 24.4 PPG (+8.1) agains their other opponents; yielding a combined differential of +26.2 PPG.
|
