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Week 11 picks: We're getting it done
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 14, 2007
The Cold, Hard Football Facts are starting to get pretty hot in terms of forecasting NFL outcomes.
After a 5-2 week vs. the spread in Week 10, we're 16-5 against the line the last three weeks -- pretty darn good, if we do say so ourselves (which we frequently do).
For the season now, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are:
- 40-27 straight up
- 36-31 against the spread
- 25-40 on the over/under
We actually went over .500 on the over/under last week (5-2), which was mildly disappointing as we were hoping to set some type of record for complete futility.
Oh well. There's always this week.
On to the Week 11 games.
NEW YORK GIANTS at DETROIT
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Teams |
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6-3 |
Overall Record |
6-3 | |
1-3 |
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1-1 | |
14.17 YPPA (23) |
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14.78 YPPA (20) | |
13.51 YPPS (8) |
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13.38 YPPS (7) | |
4th (tie) |
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30th | |
8th (tie) |
| 13th (tie) | |
5.75 (20) |
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6.23 (16) | |
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88.1 (20) | |
+3 (13) |
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+9 (6) | | 32nd | Special Teams Index (rank) | 30th | |
-3 |
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+3 | |
49 |
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49 |
This figures to be a hell of an exciting game. Both teams have terrible special teams, which will be interesting to watch, and the Lions have seen a total of 81 Big Plays in their nine games (that's nine combined per game, if you failed fifth-grade math). Plus, both teams are solid with Scoreability, not so hot on Bendability, which should also lead to points.
Yes, it should be a highlight-filled game, in a dome no less. So, who wins? The teams are remarkably identical based on their Quality Stats, but the Giants' have a big edge with their No. 8 Defensive Hogs vs. Detroit's No. 30 Offensive Hogs.
But the Lions have been outmatched in that area all year and still manage to perform well, and they do have an edge on the Big Play Index (+9 to NYG's +3). These teams are basically even, so go with the Lions to win as a home dog.
The score: Detroit 37, New York 35
SAN DIEGO at JACKSONVILLE
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Teams |
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5-4 |
Overall Record |
6-3 | |
1-2 |
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2-2 | |
17.44 YPPA (6) |
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19.04 YPPA (4) | |
12.50 YPPS (4) |
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15.93 YPPS (15) | |
19th (tie) |
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12th (tie) | |
23rd (tie) |
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12th | |
6.45 (12) |
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6.34 (13) | |
75.3 (10) |
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81.0 (15) | |
+8 (7t) |
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+11 (5) | | 3rd | Special Teams Index rank | 11th | |
+3 |
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-3 | |
40.5 |
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40.5 |
The Jaguars are a smidge better than San Diego across the board in our Quality Stats, and that's despite a 3½-game absence by their starting QB, David Garrard. Quinn Gray has been terrible in Garrard's absence (63.3 rating to Garrard's 102.9), and Garrard is back this week.
Jacksonville has the edge on both lines, and ranks in the top half of the league in all eight of our Quality Stats. At home, against a San Diego team that is still a mess despite its win over Indy last week, the Jags are a fairly easy pick.
The score: Jacksonville 27, San Diego 17
WASHINGTON at DALLAS
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Teams |
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5-4 |
Overall Record |
8-1 | |
1-3 |
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3-1 | |
14.84 YPPA (19) |
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13.78 YPPA (27) | |
16.06 YPPS (16) |
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12.06 YPPS (2) | |
14th |
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3rd | |
19th |
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3rd (tie) | |
6.02 (18) |
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8.09 (2) | |
82.2 (17) |
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73.6 (6) | |
-2 (19) |
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+7 (9t) | | 13th | Special Teams Index rank | 18th (tie) | |
+11 |
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-11 | |
46.5 |
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46.5 |
The Cowboys are in the top 10 in six of the eight Quality Stats, falling short only in Bendability (27th) and Special Teams (18th, tie).
But Washington is just remarkably mediocre -- they are between No. 13 and No. 19 in all eight stats, which is just plain hard to do. The Redskins must like vanilla ice cream, 63-degree weather and the Fantastic Four movies, because they're as averagetastic as they come.
Dallas has been outscoring their average opponent 32.8-21.6 (11.2 points better), and since the Skins are as average as they get the line of 11 points is just right. It's in Dallas, so we'll add a couple to Dallas' total rather than predicting a push ... but don't be surprised to see it happen.
The score: Dallas 34, Washington 21
NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
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Teams |
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9-0 |
Overall Record |
5-4 | |
6-0 |
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0-3 | |
16.85 YPPA (8) |
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19.50 YPPA (2) | |
10.87 YPPS (1) |
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16.89 YPPS (23) | |
2nd |
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27th (tie) | |
3rd (tie) |
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30th | |
8.47 (1) |
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5.91 (19) | |
73.9 (8) |
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80.4 (14) | |
+18 (2) |
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+8 (7t) | | 4th (tie) | Special Teams Index | 2nd (tie) | |
-14.5 |
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+14.5 | |
46.5 |
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46.5 |
Let's make sure we have this right. The Patriots, who beat Buffalo 38-7 in Foxboro, are 14.5-point favorites in Buffalo despite the fact that the Bills will likely be without main offensive performer Marshawn Lynch.
Yes, we know, the Bills have won four straight. But just look at those numbers. They are terrible on both lines, just OK in both ends of the passing game. They are great at Special Teams and Bendability, but the Patriots are No. 1 in Scoreability and No. 4 on the Special Teams Index.
The Bills have hung tough against teams that make mistakes, but the Patriots (last in the NFL in Big Plays Allowed) don't make mistakes. Give Buffalo an extra couple of points for the Sunday night home crowd, but it won't make a difference.
The score: New England 31, Buffalo 6
CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE
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Teams |
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5-4 |
Overall Record |
4-5 | |
1-3 |
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0-3 | |
14.00 YPPA (25) |
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14.01 YPPA (24) | |
12.10 YPPS (3) |
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19.30 YPPS (29) | |
6th |
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15th (tie) | |
31st |
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1st | |
7.27 (4) |
| 4.85 (31) | |
94.3 (28) |
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81.7 (16) | |
-6 (22) |
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-11 (28t) | | 6th (tie) | Special Teams Index rank | 10th | |
-3 |
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+3 | |
43.5 |
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43.5 |
This game is one to stay away from if you're a betting type.
Baltimore has been getting killed almost single-handedly by their terrible performance on Big Plays (-11), and by the struggles of the passing game (No. 31, passing YPA). But Steve McNair is now on the bench, and Kyle Boller has to be (gulp) an upgrade.
And Cleveland's defense has been almost as bad as Baltimore's offense. They're 31st n the Def. Hog Index and 28th in defensive passer rating.
The Ravens probably won't make killing mistakes this week, and should be able to control the trenches. Add the home cooking, and the Cold, Hard Football Facts like Baltimore.
The score: Baltimore 27, Cleveland 23
NEW ORLEANS at HOUSTON
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Teams |
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4-5 |
Overall Record |
4-5 | |
2-3 |
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0-4 | |
14.21 YPPA (22) |
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13.05 YPPA (30) | |
15.79 YPPS (14) |
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15.34 YPPS (13) | |
7th |
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15th (tie) | |
23rd (tie) |
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27th | |
6.29 (15) |
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7.14 (6) | |
100.4 (32) |
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88.2 (21) | |
-16 (32) |
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-4 (21) | |
25th (tie) |
Special Teams Index |
1st (tie) | |
+2.5 |
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-2.5 | |
47.5 |
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47.5 |
This one is the slightly less-important sister to the Giants-Lions game, a contest that promises to be exciting. Both teams' offenses have big edges over the other teams' defenses, which should lead to points -- we know our over/unders have been off base all year, but the number of 47.5 seems way too low.
The Texans have two big hidden advantages in this one. First, they'll probably have WR Andre Johnson back, and while they've put up pretty good numbers without him, his return is a huge boost.
The second comes on special teams, where they are tied for 1st on our Index while the Saints are tied for 25th.
Those two factors, plus the home-field edge, should turn what looks like a dead-even game into a fairly comfortable win for Houston.
The score: Houston 34, New Orleans 25
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