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Friday Beer Run: Week 10 breakdown
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 8, 2007
After a 7-0 week against the spread in Week 8, the Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats were 4-3 vs. the spread and straight up in Week 9.
Bummer. We thought we were never going to lose a game again.
For the season now, picking the most challenging games of the week, the Cold, Hard Football Facts are:
- 36-24 straight up
- 31-29 against the spread
- 20-38 on the over/under
We went 2-5 on the over/under last week, and our season success rate there stands at a statistically impossible 34.4 percent.
Basically, if the Cold, Hard Football Facts suggest a low score, play all of your fantasy guys. If they suggest a high score, put the house on the under.
On to this week's games.
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH
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Teams |
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5-3 |
Overall Record |
6-2 |
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0-2 |
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1-0 |
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14.14 YPPA (25) |
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19.41 YPPA (1) |
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12.88 YPPS (5) |
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12.70 YPPS (3) |
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6th |
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8th |
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30th (tie) |
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8th |
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7.27 (4) |
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6.96 (8) |
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|
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71.4 (4) |
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-6 (22t) |
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+15 (3) |
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+9.5 |
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-9.5 |
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47.5 |
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47.5 |
This doesn't look to be a repeat of Pittsburgh's opening-day massacre of the Brownies, but it's not looking like a battle for first place in the AFC North either.
The Browns are good at some things (Scoreability, Offensive Hog, Passing YPA), but unfortunately the Steelers are great at stopping them (No. 1 Bendability, No. 8 Defensive Hog, No. 4 Defensive Passer Rating).
And the Steelers are good at everything -- they're in the top 8 league-wide in all seven of our Quality Stats. The Pittsburgh offense against the Cleveland defense is a huge mismatch, and the home-cooking of Heinz Field won't hurt.
The score: Pittsburgh 37, Cleveland 19
JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE
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Teams |
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5-3 |
Overall Record |
6-2 |
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1-2 |
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1-2 |
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18.75 YPPA (4) |
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17.47 YPPA (10) |
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17.12 YPPS (23) |
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14.48 YPPS (10) |
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14th |
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16th (tie) |
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16th (tie) |
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2nd |
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6.34 (13th)
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5.16 (27th)
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83.5 (19th)
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65.8 (1st)
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+8 (8) |
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+3 (14) |
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+4 |
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-4 |
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35 |
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35 |
Seems like we're picking Titans and Jaguars games every week, because they're always playing someone decent. This week, they play each other, in a game that's about as easy to figure out as a David Lynch flick.
Jacksonville has the better offense, but only by a smidge. Meanwhile, Tennessee has the better defense by a wide margin, No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating, No. 2 on the Defensive Hogs.
However, the Jaguars should get QB David Garrard back for this one, and his ability to avoid the turnover is reflected in Jacksonville's +8 on the Big Play Index.
When in doubt, give the home team the three points and call it a game. And if this one's a shootout (which we're sure it will be, as we're going with the under), you'll find us in front of our TVs watching the "Twin Peaks" box set.
The score: Tennessee 17, Jacksonville 14
MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY
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Teams |
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3-5 |
Overall Record |
7-1 |
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0-3 |
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2-0 |
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17.97 YPPA (5) |
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17.67 YPPA (8) |
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16.127 YPPS (15) |
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14.94 YPPS (11) |
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22nd (tie) |
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18th (tie) |
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11th |
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3rd |
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5.07 (30th)
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7.23 (5th)
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85.8 (21)
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81.2 (15) |
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+20 (1) |
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+12 (4) |
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+6 |
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-6 |
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40.5 |
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40.5 |
The Vikings might be the best 3-5 team out there, but they're also 0-3 against Quality Teams -- which is exactly what the Packers are, a Quality Team.
And Green Bay has some significant mismatches against Minnesota:
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Green Bay's No. 5 Passing Yards Per Attempt vs. Minnesota's No. 21 Defensive Passer Rating
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Green Bay's No. 3 Defensive Hogs vs. Minnesota's No. 22 Offensive Hogs
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Green Bay's No. 15 Defensive Passer Rating vs. Minnesota's No. 30 Passing Yards Per Attempt
The Vikings have been rolling up the Big Plays (+20, No. 1 overall), but Green Bay isn't far behind (+12, No. 4 overall). In Minnesota, this was a seven-point win for Green Bay. In Green Bay, it'll be even easier.
The score: Green Bay 24, Minnesota 13
PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON
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Teams |
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3-5 |
Overall Record |
5-3 |
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1-4 |
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1-3 |
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16.38 YPPA (13) |
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15.531 YPPA (17) |
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17.93 YPPS (27) |
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16.33 YPPS (18) |
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11th |
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21st |
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4th (tie) |
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10th |
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6.04 (17) |
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6.02 (18) |
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85.9 (22) |
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76.4 (9) |
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-2 (18) |
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+/- 0 (16) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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38 |
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38 |
The Redskins are the most Averagetastic team in the NFL. Their worst rank in our seven Quality Stats is 21st, their best is 9th. They're dead even on the Big Play Index. They're 5-3, but 1-3 vs. Quality Opponents.
So, the question is, can the Eagles beat an average team on the road? Last year, the answer would have been yes. This year, it's probably no.
The Eagles do have a big advantage with their Defensive Hogs, tied for 4th against Washington's group of Offensive Hogs that rank 21st and is steadily slipping as the season goes along. Other than that battle, the Eagles are just as average, and their 1-4 Quality Record against the 5-3 Skins is probably the final nail in their coffin.
If the Eagles (27th in Scoreability) can convert in the red zone instead of settling for field goals, they'll win this one -- but they haven't proven they can do that yet.
The score: Washington 24, Philadelphia 22
DALLAS at NEW YORK GIANTS
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Teams |
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7-1 |
Overall Record |
6-2 |
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1-1 |
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1-2 |
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13.64 YPPA (27) |
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14.96 YPPA (21) |
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12.26 YPPS (2) |
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13.36 YPPS (7) |
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2nd |
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3rd |
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7th |
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9th |
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8.09 (2) |
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5.75 (20)
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73.7 (6) |
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79.2 (13)
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+5 (10t) |
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+5 (10t) |
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-1.5 |
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+1.5 |
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49 |
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49 |
The big strength of the Giants this season is found on both lines -- their Offensive Hogs are 3rd, their Defensive Hogs are 9th. Unfortunately, the Cowboys are 2nd on our Offensive Hog Index and 7th on our Defensive Hog Index, so New York can forget about another win in the trenches.
And the Giants just don't have the same ability as Dallas in most other areas. They're just 20th in Passing Yards Per Attempt (wedged between the mighty passing attacks of Buffalo and Kansas City) and they're going against Dallas' No. 6 secondary (as measured by Defensive Passer Rating).
On the other side of the ball, Tony Romo and the league's No. 2 attack, as measured by Passing Yards Per Attempt, go against New York's OK secondary (13th in Defensive Passer Rating, 79.2).
This should be an exciting game, with both teams good at Scoreability and poor at Bendability, but it'd be a surprise if the Giants are still in it down the stretch -- even at home.
The score: Dallas 37, New York 27
INDIANAPOLIS at SAN DIEGO
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Teams |
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7-1 |
Overall Record |
4-4 |
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3-1 |
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0-2 |
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17.87 YPPA (7) |
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17.32 YPPA (11) |
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12.80 YPPS (4) |
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13.08 YPPS (6) |
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1st |
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15th |
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24th (tie) |
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21st (tie) |
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7.51 (3) |
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6.45 (12) |
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73.0 (5) |
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81.8 (18) |
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+9 (6t) |
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+4 (12t) |
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-3 < | |
