By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts staff writer
With 10 minutes left in their game against the visiting Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday had all the pieces in place for a spectacular, season-changing victory.
Here's what they had going for them:
- A 2-1 edge in turnovers.
- A 20-10 lead on the scoreboard.
- The first 100-yard rushing + 100-yard receiving game by a back in franchise history.
- A 121-yard edge in penalty yards.
- A raucous home crowd.
- A Super Bowl defense.
And yet it was the Patriots winning the game -- and doing serious damage to the Colts' repeat hopes -- thanks to two unanswered scores by Tom Brady and the New England offense. The 24-20 score was written all over the faces of a dejected Indianapolis sideline at the end of it; they knew what they had, and what they squandered.
Colts RB Joseph Addai was the best player on the field Sunday, with 112 tough yards running and another 121 through the air. His huge 73-yard touchdown scamper off a screen pass at the end of the first half gave life to an Indy team that looked like it had given New England its best punches and was fading.
But Addai wasn't enough. Without Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning completed only eight passes to his wide receivers for 88 yards -- incredibly low numbers, certainly among his lowest ever in a big game.
The key stat for Indianapolis was this: red-zone efficiency: 1/3, 33.3 percent. Three times they got inside the 20, and they only got 13 points out of it. Meanwhile the Patriots were 3/4 and got all 24 points from close inside Indy territory.
Boil it down like this, and you've got the game:
- Patriots, 6.0 points per red-zone trip.
- Colts, 4.3 points per red-zone trip.
Reverse those numbers, and the Colts have a 24-17 win. Kicking field goals of 25 and 21 yards against a Patriots offense that is so explosive could be the cause of some second-guessing in Indianapolis, but everyone's a critic on Monday morning (or Sunday evening). But the Colts have become a conservative team, and it's certainly worked well for them in the past -- they lost the game on the field, not on the sidelines.
In the end, the Patriots matched Indy's output to almost the yard: 342 net yards for New England, 329 for Indy; 23 first downs for Indianapolis, 21 for New England. Brady and Manning both averaged 7.0 yards per pass (net), and both teams averaged 3.8 yards per rush.
It was a dead-even game that was going to be won by the team that scored last, and that team on this night was New England.
Indianapolis was a respectable 5-of-12 on third downs, but failed on their last two third downs of the night in spectacular fashion -- a sack that forced them to punt with 4:05 left, and then a fumble that ended their drive and led to New England running out the clock.
Manning did his best without his full complement of weapons (16 of 27 for 225 yards, 1 INT, 1 TD, 83.1 rating), but didn't close the deal.
For the Colts, who hadn't tasted defeat since the winter of 2006, home-field advantage in the playoffs is now a longshot. They will need to make up two games on New England to get the No. 1 seed, and face games at San Diego and at Baltimore, along with home games vs. Kansas City, Jacksonville and Tennessee. One stumble, and they're looking at a road trip -- unless the Patriots lose three the rest of the way, which seems like a longshot.
The Colts (who covered the spread but lost the game, as the
CHFF Quality Stats suggested they might), can certainly win on the road ... but the Patriots are perfect 7-0 at home during the playoffs in the Bill Belichick era.
