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Week 9 picks: The 'other' games
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 1, 2007
By God, the Cold, Hard Football Facts were right!
For the first time this season, our Quality Stats proved to be a invaluable indicator of on-field happenings; we were a perfect 7-0 straight up and 6-1 vs. the spread in Week 8.
The one game we missed? Well, the numbers suggested that the Redskins and their top-three defense would stay close to the Patriots.
Oops.
If only the spread was New England -50, we would have been perfect.
Still, we were incredibly accurate:
Our picks:
- Indianapolis by 22 (they won by 24)
- Pittsburgh by 5 (they won by 11)
- Underdog Jacksonville by 2 (they won by 1)
- Underdog Buffalo by 4 (they won by 10)
- New England by 9 (they won by an ass-load)
- San Diego by 16 (they won by 25)
- Underdog Green Bay by 5 (they won by 6)
Yes, the Quality Stats saw three underdogs winning outright, and all three won.
You already know that our Quality Stats prove more valuable as the season wears on, and Week 8 was a pretty solid indicator of this trend.
For the season now, we're 32-21 straight up and 27-26 against the spread picking only the most challenging games of the week.
The only area where we struggled was picking the over/unders. We went 2-5 to leave us at a statistically improbable 18-33 for the season. And we repeat: over/under is dumb.
On to this week's games.
GREEN BAY at KANSAS CITY
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Teams |
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6-1 |
Overall Record |
4-3 |
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3-0 |
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1-1 |
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18.96 YPPA (5) |
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18.95 YPPA (6) |
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15.32 YPPS (11) |
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20.16 YPPS (29) |
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20th |
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27th |
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7th (tie) |
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2nd (tie)
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6.88 (10) |
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5.85 (18) |
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82.1 (19) |
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74.2 (7) |
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+8 (8) |
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-3 (20t) |
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+2 |
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-2 |
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37 |
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37 |
This shapes up as an unattractive but evenly-matched game between two surprisingly good football teams.
Both teams have strong defensive lines and sub-par offensive lines. The Packers are No. 10 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, the Chiefs are No. 7 in Defensive Passer Rating. The Chiefs are No. 18 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, the Packers are No. 19 in Defensive Passer Rating. A wash all around.
But the Packers have a significant edge in Big Plays (+8 to KC's -3) and a 3-0 Quality Record.
And Kansas City's No. 29 rank in Scoreability stacked up against a Green Bay defense ranked No. 5 in Bendability should counteract KC's home-field edge.
The score: Green Bay 14, Kansas City 12
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA
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Teams |
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6-1 |
Overall Record |
3-4 |
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1-1 |
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1-3 |
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13.11 YPPA (28) |
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17.99 YPPA (9) |
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12.40 YPPS (2) |
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17.85 YPPS (27) |
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2nd (tie)
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13th (tie)
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6th |
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2nd (tie)
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7.60 (2) |
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6.22 (14) |
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75.5 (9) |
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79.4 (14) |
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+2 (14t) |
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+1 (16) |
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-3 |
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+3 |
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46.5 |
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46.5 |
These two teams are significantly closer than their records indicate. Dallas has just a small edge on the Defensive Hog vs. Offensive Hog battle, the two teams are mirror images on the Scoreability/Bendability charts, and they are basically dead even on the Big Play Index.
Dallas is excellent passing the ball, No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt, but Philly has kept opposing quarterbacks to passer ratings under 80 this year (note: a passer rating of 80 should be called the " Eli Line," much like the"Mendoza Line" for batting under .200 in baseball).
The Cowboys are probably three points better than the Eagles, and with the game at Philly it's a pick em. So, in Bonzo fashion, we'll flip a coin. And the winner is ...
The score: Philadelphia 23, Dallas 20
SEATTLE at CLEVELAND
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Teams |
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4-3 |
Overall Record |
4-3 |
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0-1 |
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1-2 |
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20.75 YPPA (2) |
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14.14 YPPA (25) |
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16.60 YPPS (20) |
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12.86 YPPS (4) |
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26th |
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11th |
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10th |
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26th (tie)
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6.43 (12) |
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7.21 (4) |
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73.7 (6) |
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94.9 (27) |
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+7 (9) |
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-6 (22t) |
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-1 |
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+1 |
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46.5 |
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46.5 |
The first annual "Charlie Frye Bowl" will almost certainly not feature the deposed former Browns starter, now the No. 3 QB in Seattle. But it does feature two winning teams, which is enough to Frye your internal circuits.
This game is an interesting one. Seattle has great marks on defense (No. 2 Bendability, No. 10 Defensive Hog Index, No. 6 Defensive Passer Raing), Cleveland has great marks on offense (No. 4 Scoreability, No. 11 Offensive Hog Index, No. 4 Passing Yards Per Attempt). And both are terrible on the other side of the ball.
Who gets the better of that statistical stew? Who knows. But the Seahawks are a stellar +7 on our Big Play Index, ninth overall, while Cleveland is -6, 22nd overall, which means that at some point in the game Seattle is probably going to get a gift TD of some kind. And that'll be enough to counteract the Dog Pound.
The score: Seattle 27, Cleveland 22
CAROLINA at TENNESSEE
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Teams |
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4-3 |
Overall Record |
5-2 |
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0-1 |
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1-1 |
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16.89 YPPA (13) |
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16.88 YPPA (14) |
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16.90 YPPS (21) |
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14.85 YPPS (9) |
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9th (tie) |
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12th |
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26th (tie)
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4th |
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5.39 (26) |
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5.35 (27) |
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80.8 (18) |
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67.8 (1) |
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+/- Zero (17) |
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+4 (11) |
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+4.5 |
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-4.5 |
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35.5 |
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35.5 |
This is a flat-out mismatch, and the spread of 4.5 does not reflect the statistical superiority of the Titans. Tennessee hasn't really put anyone away this year, but they have an edge in each of the offensive-defensive matchups on the Quality Stat list.
Carolina will not be able to pass the ball against the Tennessee's No. 1 pass defense (67.8 Defensive Passer Rating), and will be running up against the No. 4 Defensive Hogs as well.
Tennessee doesn't score a ton of points, but playing against a bad Carolina defensive front (No. 26 in our Defensive Hog Index) and average secondary should lubricate the scoreboards in Tennessee's favor.
The score: Tennessee 23, Carolina 6
JACKSONVILLE at NEW ORLEANS
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Teams |
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5-2 |
Overall Record |
3-4 |
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1-2 |
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1-3 |
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20.85 YPPA (1) |
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14.37 YPPA (24) |
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16.95 YPPS (22) |
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17.76 YPPS (26) |
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7th |
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9th (tie) |
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12th |
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23rd |
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5.75 (19) |
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5.87 (17) |
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75.5 (10) |
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97.7 (28) |
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+9 (5t) |
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-14 (31) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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40 |
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40 |
OK. Let's get this straight. New Orleans, which has been outscored by 10 points per game in losing three of four to Quality Opponents, is a three-point favorite over 5-2 Jacksonville.
Plus, last time we checked, the Saints are in the NFC while the Jaguars are in the AFC.
The Jaguars will have a big edge in the trencheswhen they have the ball. Jacksonville ranks No. 7 on our Offensive Hog Index, while the Saints are a mere No. 23 in our Defensive Hog Index. And Jacksonville's No. 1 ranking in our Bendability Index should face little challenge from an inefficient New Orleans offense that ranks No. 26 in Scoreability.
And the biggest edge comes in Big Plays, where the Jaggernauts are +9 (fifth in the league) and New Orleans is -14 (31st). Ouch. The Saints are playing better of late, and if we were playing hunches we might even like them to win.
But the Cold, Hard Football Facts don't play hunches.
The score: Jacksonville 20, New Orleans 13
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