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Friday Beer Run: Week 8
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 25, 2007
 No more excuses.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts were off again last week, and are starting to feel like Jets coach Eric Mangini -- losing games, and feeling the hatred from our fans and the world at large.
After going 2-4 against the spread, straight up and on over/under, we don't expect that anyone will be taking our scientific selections (using only our Quality Stats) seriously this week.
But we did guarantee one winner for Week 7, and by God we delivered! The Patriots beat Miami, and we were right there with the correct selection, bucking the odds to suggest that New England would win a tough road skirmish.
What a bunch of Nostradamuses we are.
For the season:
- 25-21 straight up
- 21-25 vs. the spread
- 16-28 over/under
Yecch. But putting the past behind us, we've got six fresh beacons of hope for Week 8.
Good luck, Cold, Hard Football Facts!
INDIANAPOLIS at CAROLINA
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Teams |
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6-0 |
Overall Record |
4-2 |
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3-0 |
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0-1 |
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17.02 YPPA (12) |
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18.08 YPPA (11) |
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12.42 YPPS (3) |
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15.50 YPPS (18) |
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1st |
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13th (tie) |
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23rd |
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27th |
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7.47 (3) |
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5.69 (23) |
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71.8 (6) |
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78.4 (13) |
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+6 (5t) |
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+3 (11t) |
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-6.5 |
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+6.5 |
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44 |
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44 |
Carolina's numbers certainly don't suggest that they're a good football team, but we checked the NFL standings a few times and they are indeed 4-2 on the season.
About the only area where they might have some edge on Indy is their offensive line (tied for 13th in the Offensive Hog Index) against Indy's D-line (23rd). But the Colts have the ultimate mismatch when they have the ball -- their No. 1 offensive line against the Carolina's No. 27 defensive line.
We saw what happened last week when New England's No. 2 Offensve Hogs went up against Miami's No. 30 Defensive Hogs. And while Carolina has a good secondary (13th in Defensive Passer Rating), Peyton Manning will be picking and choosing the uncovered man.
Oh, and did we mention that the Panthers will be choosing between Vinny Testaverde and David Carr at QB? The Colts will let the Panthers dink and dunk, but it won't amount to much.
The score: Indianapolis 31, Carolina 9
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI
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Teams |
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Overall Record |
2-4 |
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1-0 |
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1-3 |
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19.26 YPPA (4) |
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12.34 YPPA (30) |
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13.36 YPPS (6) |
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13.60 YPPS (7) |
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6th |
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21st |
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7th (tie) |
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22nd |
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6.54 (10) |
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7.02 (7) |
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71.0 (4) |
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99.5 (29) |
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+9 (3) |
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-6 (25) |
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-3.5 |
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+3.5 |
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48 |
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48 |
The Steelers are the only team to rank in the top 10 in all seven of our Quality Stats, and they have a 1-0 record against Quality Opponents, to boot.
So it's going to be hard for the CHFF to pick against Pittsburgh anytime, and this week is no different. Even though the Steelers have struggled on the road, they hold a massive advantage in the trenches vs. the Bengals -- both of their Hogs are in the top 10, while Cincy's are 21st (offense) and 22nd (defense).
Cincy's strength's -- Passing YPA (7th) and Scorability (7th) are both counteracted by Pittsburgh's excellent Bendability (4th) and Defensive Passer Rating (4th). However, the Bengals have been close in all of their non-Patriots games this year, and they're at home, so we don't see a blowout. Just a tidy cover.
The score: Pittsburgh 28, Cincinnati 23
JACKSONVILLE at TAMPA BAY
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Teams |
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4-2 |
Overall Record |
4-3 |
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1-2 |
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2-3 |
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21.93 YPPA (1) |
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19.65 YPPA (3) |
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18.71 YPPS (27) |
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17.77 YPPS (24) |
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7th |
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12th |
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12th |
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26th |
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5.8473 (19) |
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7.17 (6) |
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82.2 (17) |
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75.8 (11) |
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+6 (5t) |
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+6 (5t) |
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+3.5 |
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-3.5 |
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32 |
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32 |
Tampa has been playing tough opponents almost every week, as evidenced by their five games (and 2-3 record) vs. Quality Opponents. And here comes another one.
These two teams are very similar: they don't allow points easily (great Bendability) or score them easily (terrible Scoreability), and they're very efficient in the Big Play area (both +6 in our Big Play Index, based mostly upon the low number of Big Plays against them).
But Jacksonville has a pretty big advantage on the Offensive Hogs (No. 7, vs. Tampa's No. 26 Defensive Hogs), so expect them to limit backup Quinn Gray to 20 passes or fewer and run their great RB tandem relentlessly. Tampa (No. 6 in Passing YPA) should be able to pass thanks to the great play of Jeff Garcia, but they probably won't have the ball much, and their Scoreability woes (their ineffecient offense, in other words) will cost them.
The score: Jacksonville 17, Tampa Bay 15
WASHINGTON at NEW ENGLAND
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Teams |
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4-2 |
Overall Record |
7-0 |
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1-2 |
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1-0 |
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18.88 YPPA (7) |
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16.03 YPPA (15) |
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14.98 YPPS (15) |
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10.86 YPPS (1) |
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22nd (tie) |
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2nd |
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2nd |
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6th |
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6.44 (11) |
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8.77 (1) |
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67.7 (1) |
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73.6 (7) |
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+3 (11t) |
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+14 (2) |
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+16.5 |
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-16.5 |
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47.5 |
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47.5 |
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have picked against the Patriots a couple of times this year, and certainly lived to regret it. But even though New England has covered all seven of its massive spreads (this is the fourth of 16 or more points), the numbers don't lend themselves to another blowout win this Sunday in Washington.
We'll gloss over New England's numbers, because everyone's fairly aware of the sheer outstandingtude.
Most folks are probably less familiar with Washington's defensive prowess. The Redskins rank No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 2 in our Defensive Hog Index. They're also a solid seventh in Bendability. We think it's safe to say that no team, even the mighty Patriots, should be favored by 16.5 points over a team with such a strong D.
Washington's biggest problem is the offensive line -- ranked 22nd in our Offensive Hog Index, and having lost starters Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas. With an average Scoreability (15th) and passing game (11th in YPA), scoring points won't be easy for the Skins. Winning the game outright would be a 1 in a 100 job, but covering the spread should actually be a fairly safe bet.
Famous last words.
The score: New England 26, Washington 17
BUFFALO at NEW YORK JETS
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Teams |
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2-4 |
Overall Record |
1-6 |
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1-3 |
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0-3 |
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18.30 YPPA (9) |
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13.77 YPPA (23) |
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16.37 YPPS (20) |
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14.85 YPPS (13) |
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29th (tie) |
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25th |
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32nd |
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30th |
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4.82 (30) |
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5.95 (17) |
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84.8 (19) |
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99.9 (30) |
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+6 (5t) |
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-4 (23) |
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+3 |
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-3 |
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37 |
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37 |
This isn't a marquee matchup, but we figured it was a good test of the usefulness of our Quality Stats as an indicator of victory or defeat: Two obscure and unsuccessful teams that seemed as evenly matched as can be, going head to head.
Unfortunately, the Quality Stats don't help us much. It's relative strength vs. relative strength, and flat-out weakness vs. flat out weakness. Both teams are shockingly bad on both lines, so there's no edge there. The Bills can't pass (30th in Passing YPA), but the Jets can't defend the pass (30th in Defensive Passer Rating).
But the Bills do have one significant edge -- they're tied for fifth on the Big Play Index at +6, with the Jets at -4 (23rd). They're also much more efficient when it comes time to put points on the board. These factors should be enough to counteract New York's home-field advantage.
The score: Buffalo 24, New York 20
HOUSTON at SAN DIEGO
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Teams |
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3-4 |
Overall Record |
3-3 |
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2-3 |
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0-3 |
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13.80 YPPA (22) |
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16.35 YPPA (13) |
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14.13 YPPS (9) |
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14.65 YPPS (11) |
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19th |
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15th |
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29th |
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4th |
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7.26 (4) |
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