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Monday Morning Hangover: Replacement players
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 22, 2007
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts medicine man
It’s an easy assumption. When Team A loses Star Player to an injury, people figure that Team A is in trouble. But in the NFL, Generic Player often gets up off the pine and does the job quite nicely, maybe even better than Star Player.
Guys like Johnny Unitas and Tom Brady were injury replacements for big-name franchise quarterbacks, and that seemed to work out O.K. But there are only so many Johnny U's and Tom Terrific's sitting on NFL sidelines.
The fortunes of several NFL teams this season have hinged on the success of an injury replacement. Some teams soldiered right on through without Star Player. Some teams struggled mightily with Generic Player.
When the Rams lost Orlando Pace in Week 1, for example, it was a big loss – but one that many people thought that St. Louis would overcome.
The Rams withstood the loss of Pace for eight games in 2006 – in fact, they thrived, going 2-6 with 21.4 PPG in Pace’s eight starts, 6-2 with 24.5 PPG in the eight games he missed.
But they are just awful without him in 2007, with the various shufflings of the line leading to mayhem and a league-low 11.3 PPG.
Overall, since Pace became a full-time starter in 1998, the Rams are 75-57 (.568) with Pace in the lineup, 8-12 (.400) without.
They’ve had better luck replacing Steven Jackson with rookie Brian Leonard, only because both have been equally ineffective. Leonard averages 3.9 YPA to Jackson’s 3.3.
On the other end of the spectrum, you have the Cowboys. Starting wideout Terry Glenn, a 1,000-yard receiver in 2006, has missed all seven games. So has NT Jason Ferguson. But their replacements have been just fine, as evidenced by the 6-1 record.
WR Patrick Crayton is on pace or 914 yards and 9 TDs, and NT Jay Ratliff has helped the Dallas front to a No. 3 ranking in run defense through six weeks (3.41 YPA allowed).
Some other notable replacements:
New England, DE Jarvis Green for Richard Seymour
Obviously, the Patriots haven’t been in any kind of trouble this year – even without Seymour, considered the best defensive player of the New England dynasty. Green doesn’t have the versatility of Seymour, but he has collected three sacks in seven games (Seymour has averaged 5 sacks per season), and New England ranked No. 3 in our Defensive Hog Index last week.
Chicago, S Adam Archuleta for S Mike Brown
This replacement has been a nightmare, causing the Bears to move their secondary all around searching for answers. Heading into Week 7, the Bears had a Defensive Passer Rating of 94.6 in 2007 – a far cry from the 66.5 of a year ago.
Making matters worse, they traded S Chris Harris to Carolina, where he’s forced four fumbles and has generally been a welcome surprise for the Panthers.
Indianapolis: DT Ed Johnson for DT Anthony McFarland
It should surprise no one that the Colts found a way to seamlessly replace a player who seemed fairly irreplaceable. But Johnson has been just fine, with 13 tackles in five games for an Indy DL that has improved greatly against the run (4.22 YPA in 2007 compared with 5.33 YPA in 2006).
Houston, WR Andre Davis for Andre Johnson
Houston's passing game figured to be finished when Johnson went down, but it’s continued to be strong even as the Texans have lost four of five. Davis has caught 20 passes for 384 yards and two TDs in his five starts, numbers that would pan out to 64 catches, 1,228 yards and six TDs over a full 16-game season.
The Kicking-Away from Hester Theory
The Eagles did exactly what everyone has been telling the rest of the league to do on Sunday, and that’s kick away from Devin Hester.
It worked – Hester didn’t touch the ball once on a return – and although the Bears won on a shocking cardiac drive by Brian Griese, the strategy will certainly be used again.
However, the impact of Hester was still felt.
On four Philly kickoffs, the Bears started on average at the 35 yard line – approximately 10 yards better than the league average.
And Philly’s netted 27.0 yards per punt, again around 10 yards worse than the average.
So, just the threat of Hester gave the Bears an average of 10 extra starting yards on each of the eight possessions that started off an opposing kick.
Not bad, just out of sheer fear from the other sideline.
Laveranues Coles: Underrated
We suspect that Laveranues Coles, like Cincy's T.J. Houshmandzadeh, doesn’t get the credit he deserves mostly because his name is difficult to spell.
But Coles, who scored two TDs in vain Sunday as the Jets lost to the Bengals, has been as consistent as any receiver in the league since cracking the starting lineup in 2000.
In his 106 starts, he’s averaged 5 catches and 64.1 yards, and his average season as a starter is 80 catches for 1,025 yards and 5.5 TDs.
Over the last five full seasons (two in Washington), he’s been between 73-91 catches and 845-1,264 yards. This year, he’s on track for 94 catches, 1,051 yards and 14 TDs.
Coles hasn't missed a game since his rookie year of 2000 and has lost exactly one fumble (while fumbling five times total) in 580 touches from scrimmage.
That’s Laveranues, L-A-V-E-R …
Reggie Bush: Overrated
Can we finally all agree that Reggie Bush is bordering on a bust (like the rest of his highly publicized mates from the 2005 USC Trojans)? Can we at least admit he's overrated? An can somebody at least share this news with Jim Mora?
On the NFL Network postgame show Sunday, Mora mentioned how well Reggie Bush has played in the Saints’ two wins, then showed clips of him at a press conference.
Here are two questions: what is Jim Mora smoking, and why is Reggie Bush giving a press conference?
As usual, Bush did nearly nothing to advance the cause of a New Orleans win.
Against a poor Atlanta defense that ranked 23rd against the run, Bush carried 17 times for 54 yards – a 3.2-yard average well shy of his 3.5 YPA season average, his 3.6 YPA career average, and the 4.3 YPA average the Falcons have surrendered to everybody else.
Ah, but he added a four-yard TD catch and ensuing two-point conversion to give NO the lead with 5:17 left.
For these humble accomplishments, he was awarded NFL.com’s “Game Ball.” Did we mention that his longest gain of the day on 22 touches was nine yards?
NFL.com could have awarded the “Game Ball” to Saints DE Charles Grant, who registered five tackles, a sack and a forced fumble and helped hold Atlanta to 75 yards rushing on 24 carries, but that would have been too hard.
Might as well give it to Reggie, who looks awfully nice in ads but not so hot on the actual football field.
The Patriots have won all four road games this year by 21 points or more (that’s four-for-four, if you’re scoring at home).
To put that in perspective,
the three Patriot Super Bowl teams boasted just four 21-point wins in their 24 regular-season road trips.
And this season, there have only been five other 21-plus-point road wins for the rest of the NFL combined (98 games).
Lykønskningen, Mr. Andersen!
Rob Bironas (8 FGs) and Jason Elam (walk-off 48-yarder to beat Pittsburgh) were your most memorable kickers from Week 7.
But it's Mr. Morten Andersen that continues to amaze the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
Andersen converted 3 of 3 field goals for Atlanta Sunday, leaving him 12-for-15 on the season. At his current pace, he’ll finish the season with 120 points – which would be only two less than his career-high of 122 set with Atlanta in 1995.
He also scored 121 points in 1987, which for the mathematically challenged was 20 years ago.
Lykønskningen, Morty! (That’s congratulations, on the off chance the faithful reader doesn’t speak Danish).
Five Amazing Sunday Developments
ONE - The Cardinals going for two points to tie with 26 seconds remaining in their 21-19 loss to the Redskins … with WR Anquan Boldin as the quarterback. His toss to Larry Fitzgerald fell incomplete. Arizona then executed a a successful onside kick, only to watch as Neil Rackers' 55-yard attempt went wide left. That’s Cardinals football if we’ve ever seen it.
TWO - Minnesota still using Chester Taylor on key third downs and in key fourth-quarter situations. Note to coach Brad Childress: rookie Adrian Peterson averages 7.2 yards every time he touches the ball on a run or pass.
THREE - Baltimore actually scoring touchdowns (two), not field goals (0) in Buffalo. Matt Stover had kicked more FGs than XPs in five straight games. Of course, they could have used two Stover figgies Sunday. The Ravens lost at Buffalo, 19-14.
FOUR - Tennessee blowing a 32-7 fourth-quarter lead then winning it on kicker Rob Bironas' eighth field goal of the day. If only Vince Young had played, we could have given him all the credit.
FIVE - Kansas City winning a road game over Oakland to go to 4-3 and take the AFC West lead. The “Hard Knocks” jokes can now end, as the Chiefs are in first place in October for the first time since their 9-0 start in 2003.
There were no interconference games in Week 7, leaving the AFC’s lead at a slim 14-12. And the NFC holds a 15-12 lead in Quality Wins.
Some very interesting interconference games are on tap for Week 8: Indy at Carolina, Washington at New England and Jacksonville at Tampa Bay – all games between Quality Teams. The slate of top contests is capped off Monday night with Green Bay at Denver.
Less intriguing: Giants-Dolphins in London and Browns-Rams in Whocaresville.
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