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Friday Beer Run: Redemption week
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 19, 2007
 We're not much for excuse-making here at Cold, Hard Football Facts, but our poor Week 6 picks do require a bit of a back story.
We chose Arizona to crush Carolina last week, because the numbers strongly supported that. What they didn't support was Kurt Warner going down before the fans even had their nachos, and Tim Rattay losing "battle of the off-the-street quarterbacks."
And we liked Tennessee to upset Tampa ... with Vince Young in the lineup, not with Kerry Collins for most of the second half.
But still, the facts just weren't accurate last week, as we were 3-3 picking winners, 2-4 vs the spread and 2-4 on over/under. As always we point out that we are only picking the week's most intriguing matchups, but there's only so much lipstick you can put on our pig-like season numbers.
For the season:
- 23-17 straight up
- 19-21 vs. the spread
- 14-24 over/under
Those are pretty lackluster numbers – especially on the over/under, which we'll defend ourselves against with these Cold, Hard Football Facts:
Over/under is dumb.
But this week will be different. We guarantee at least one winner this week in our six-game power pack of picks (yes, we're handicapping NE-Miami).
Let's do it!
TENNESSEE at HOUSTON
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Teams |
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3-2 |
Overall Record |
3-3 |
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1-2 |
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1-2 |
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19.54 YPPA (6) |
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14.56 YPPA (20) |
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16.10 YPPS (18) |
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15.45 YPPS (14) |
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9th |
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22nd |
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11th |
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30th (tie) |
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5.51 (23) |
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7.45 (5) |
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66.9 (3) |
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91.8 (25) |
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-1 (18t) |
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+3 (9t) |
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-1.5 |
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+1.5 |
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38.5 |
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38.5 |
We hate to pick another Titans game this week, as Vince Young is banged up and might not play Sunday. However, the Titans haven't really ridden Young to success this year – their worst number in our Quality Stats comes in Passing YPA (23rd).
Even if Kerry Collins in the game (and with a week of reps as the starter), all signs point to Tennessee here. Its offensive line (9th in the Offensive Hog Index) should dominate Houston (30th in Defensive Hog Index). And Houston's main (and apparently only) strength is the passing game – which should be counteracted by Tennessee's No. 3 pass defense (66.9 opposing passer rating).
The score: Tennessee 20, Houston 13
TAMPA BAY at DETROIT
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Teams |
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Overall Record |
3-2 |
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2-1 |
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0-1 |
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21.66 YPPA (3) |
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12.21 YPPA (31) |
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16.500 YPPS (20) |
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14.47 YPPS (9) |
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15th |
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31st |
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20th |
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16th |
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7.47 (4) |
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6.06 (17) |
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73.5 (6) |
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89.9 (24) |
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+10 (3t) |
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-5 (24t) |
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+1.5 |
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-1.5 |
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44.5 |
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44.5 |
The Lions have been living and mostly dying by Big Plays this year, averaging 4.6 per game – No. 2 in the league, and the only possible reason for their 3-2 record. They are either mediocre or terrible at everything else. Detroit's passing game is pretty good, ranking 17th in YPA, despite being handicapped by the NFL's 31st ranked O-line in the NFL.
If the Lions plan to keep their Big Play success alive this week, it'll come as a shock to Tampa. The Bucs have seen just 10 Big Plays go against them in six games (1.67 per game), the third-best number in the league.
Add that ability to prevent the Big Play to the Tampa's dominance of Detroit in every other area, and this is as easy an upset pick as you could have.
The score: Tampa Bay 27, Detroit 19
CHICAGO at PHILADELPHIA
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Teams |
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2-4 |
Overall Record |
2-3 |
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1-2 |
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1-3 |
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14.55 YPPA (21) |
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17.84 YPPA (12) |
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14.63 YPPS (11) |
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17.62 YPPS (24) |
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32nd |
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18th (tie) |
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14th |
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2nd |
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5.35 (26) |
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5.86 (20) |
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94.6 (26) |
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73.3 (5) |
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-9 (28t) |
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+1 (16) |
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+4.5 |
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-4.5 |
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41 |
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41 |
The difference between these two-win teams is that the Eagles have played pretty good football while the Bears have been just awful.
This game should come down to one glaring mismatch: Philly's No. 2 Defensive Hogs against Chicago's No. 32 Offensive Hogs. It's tough to see the Bears doing anything of substance on offense with a mismatch like that.
Even if Chicago's defense was playing great football – which it's not (14th DHI, 26th defensive passer) – the Eagles would be the pick here.
If the Eagles can successfully kick away from Devin Hester, this one could even be a laugher.
The score: Philadelphia 24, Chicago 13
MINNESOTA at DALLAS
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Teams |
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2-3 |
Overall Record |
5-1 |
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0-2 |
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1-1 |
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19.70 YPPA (5) |
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13.02 YPPA (26) |
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16.80 YPPS (22) |
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11.98 YPPS (2) |
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17.67 (21) |
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8.33 (3t) |
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13.33 (13) |
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13.00 (12) |
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5.16 (29) |
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7.92 (2) |
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86.3 (20) |
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78.1 (10) |
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+15 (1) |
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+2 (11t) |
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+9.5 |
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-9.5 |
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46.5 |
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46.5 |
The game plan is pretty simple when facing Minnesota: stop the running game, stop the Vikings. Their No. 29 passing attack doesn't scare you, and their defensive numbers (with the exception of a No. 1 ranking in rushing yards per attempt) are pretty average.
So it's simple, right? Wrong. Minnesota's three losses have all been nail-biters, and the Vikings still average a league-high 5.56 YPA on the ground offensively despite the passing woes.
Do all these factors add up to an upset in Dallas? No. The Cowboys are the better team, should be able to pass (No. 2 in Passing YPA vs. No. 20 Defensive Passer Rating) and they're playing at home,
But the line of 9.5 is preposterous, especially given the Cowboys' back-to-back blockbusters (the crazy win at Buffalo, the Game o' the Year loss to New England).
The score: Dallas 30, Minnesota 24
PITTSBURGH at DENVER
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Teams |
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4-1 |
Overall Record |
2-3 |
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0-0 |
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0-2 |
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25.06 YPPA (2) |
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12.25 YPPA (30) |
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13.33 YPPS (5) |
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24.35 YPPS (32) |
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9.67 (5) |
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8.33 (3t) |
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9.00 (6) |
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21.33 (23) |
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6.51 (13) |
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7.16 (6) |
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64.7 (2) |
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96.2 (28) |
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+10 (3t) |
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-9 (28t) |
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-3.5 |
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+3.5 |
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39 |
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39 |
It seems amazing that the Broncos would be catching points at home this early in the season, but they've struggled mightily.
The Denver offense has been quite good at everything but actually putting the ball in the end zone – they're dead last in Scoreability, needing 24.35 yards to score a single point. That number doesn't figure to get a whole lot better against Pittsburgh and their No. 2 rank in Bendability.
The Denver defense has been just awful, 30th in Bendability, 28th in Defensive Passer Rating and 23rd on the Defensive Hogs. These numbers don't bode well.
If we were using human emotion here, we'd kind of like the Broncos at home coming off of a bye, but this is all about Cold, Hard Football Facts, and they only point one way – toward Pittsburgh, and their incredibly well-balanced attack.
The score: Pittsburgh 27, Denver 16
NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI
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Teams |
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6-0 |
Overall Record |
0-6 |
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1-0 |
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0-2 |
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16.74 YPPA (13) |
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11.61 YPPA (32) |
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11.25 YPPS (1) |
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15.23 YPPS (13) |
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7.00 (2) |
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14.00 (13t) |
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6.67 (3) |
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27.00 (30t) |
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8.27 (1) |
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5.99 (19) |
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74.0 (8) |
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96.7 (29) |
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+13 (2) |
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-11 (31) |
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-16.5 |
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