Jacksonville's ball control numbers since Week 1 have been downright unbelievable:

The last time someone consistently held the ball that long, poor Charlie Brown ended up head over heels in the dirt.

 

And QB David Garrard is making coach Jack Del Rio look like a genius with his flawless play – he’s fifth in the NFL with a 105.4 passer rating (behind only Brady, Romo, Delhomme and Manning)  – and has thrown one TD and zero INTs in all four games. (Meanwhile, Byron Leftwich was just awful in his Atlanta debut Sunday, 2-for-8 with an interception off the bench).

 

Even more encouraging than their excellent play is the fact that the Jags are 2-1 in close games (TD or less) this year after a 2-7 performance in close games in 2006.

Of course, the 15.8 points per game of the Jacksonville offense just isn’t going to get it done over the long term. And the Jaggernauts still have five games left against the stout AFC South, including two against the Colts. Only two of their remaining 12 games are against teams that are outright bad right now (at New Orleans, Week 9, and host Buffalo, Week 12).

 

The Jaguars need to get their running game (4.0 YPA) back toward its 2006 level (5.0 YPA) and keep Garrard right where he is.

 

But if they can continue to dominate the lines of scrimmage against the better teams on their schedule, they will have little trouble becoming the 12-4 team the Cold, Hard Football Facts thought they were.

 

A CLASSIC MOMENT

Green Bay QB Brett Favre has played some damn fine football this season, which pleases no one more than John Madden.

 

Where Madden and Sunday/Monday Night Football have been rightly criticized for overly praising Favre, there’s been nothing to complain about in 2007.

 

Well, except one thing.

 

Just as they were in mid-gush in the late third quarter – Madden and Michaels were in mid-soliloquy and they had just put up a loving shot of a female fan with an “I LOVE NO. 4” sign – Favre pulled some straight-up horse crap. He threw one of those “I’m Still In High School” underhand flips while being pressured in his own end, and Brian Urlacher picked it off.

 

The Bears scored on the very next play, and it would be the difference in Chicago’s 27-20 win.

 

The interesting part about it, other than watching Madden and Al Michaels stumble over their words in the aftermath, was the reaction of coach Mike McCarthy.

 

McCarthy has relentlessly preached ball-control to Favre and, unlike previous coaches, treats him like an employee, not a legend.

 

So, when the Packers get the ball back, McCarthy calls runs on first and second down … and then again on third and a long 5. The Packers might not have called three straight runs all season, and to do it in the later stages of a close game was clearly a statement from coach to QB: we're done freelancing.

 

It didn’t pay off in the short haul, as they punted the ball away and eventually lost the game, but McCarthy gets the Cold, Hard Football Facts “Balls Award” for sending his Hall of Famer a message.  

 

We are still searching for Bonzo the Idiot Monkey, the amazing coin-flipping prognosticating primate.

 

Just after he made his picks for Week 5, he went AWOL, scratching his way out of his handler’s arms and popping out of the only window in the CHFF basement/cardboard box.

 

We were going to look for him Saturday, but that Stanford-USC game distracted us, and then we were busy making nachos and stuff and watching the NFL yesterday. 

 

Anyway, we’re looking today. He’s about three feet tall, loves to smile and throw feces, and has a weakness for bourbon that we had absolutely nothing to do with.

 

Oh, and his picks? He’s 10-3 against the spread this week, and is probably as good as any handicapper in the country this year for the season at 48-26.

 

Find that monkey!

 

While the AFC East title has more or less been handed to New England, a loss by Buffalo tonight would practically make it official.

 

No NFL team has ever won the division after trailing by four or more games (this thanks to the NBC's Sunday Night Football research crew), and that’s where the rest of the East would stand if Buffalo loses tonight.

 

Remarkable.

 

Five weeks in, and the division is on unofficial lockdown.

 

Hey, but stranger things have happened. Like getting Randy Moss for a fourth-round pick.  

 

The Rams are 4-11 over their last 15 games, which doesn’t bode well for the future of slump-shouldered skipper Scott Linehan.

 

But at least some of the blame should go to St. Louis go-to receiver, Torry “Big Play” Holt.

 

In the Rams’ last 15 games, Holt has a very mediocre (for him) 83 catches for 1,013 yards. He has almost as many fumbles (4) as he does touchdowns (6). And he’s averaging just 12.2 yards per catch over that span, a far cry from his 14.9 career average.

 

Holt saw his yardage numbers decline for the third straight year in 2006 (1,696 to 1,372 to 1,331 to 1,188), and he’s on pace for 1,123 in 2007.  

 

The AFC started to exert its supremacy over its little brother from the NFC, winning four of five interconference games Sunday to improve to 12-9 on the season (Bills-Cowboys tonight will probably tip it back toward the NFC a bit).

 

And the AFC is definitely getting the better of the big games. There have been five matchups between Quality Teams (both currently over .500), and the AFC has won four of five:  

The only win for the NFC was Arizona’s 21-14 defeat of Pittsburgh. Dallas will try  to add its name to that list Sunday when it hosts New England in the only interconference matchup of Week 6 between winning teams.

 

Ever wonder why teams are starting to devalue running backs in the draft?