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2007 Cardinals: desert mirage, or quality oasis?
Cold, Hard Football Facts October 8, 2007
By Jonathan Comey
Cold, Hard Football Facts desert warrior
As Arizona moves into the consciousness of NFL fans with their 3-2 mark and two Quality Wins, it’s always worth remembering that they are still the Cardinals.
Any NFL coach worth his salt will tell you that the past means nothing, but for Arizona it’s just never far from the mind.
This is the 20th season in the Arizona desert for the Cardinals. In St. Louis, they were respectably bad, but out West they have been epically horrible: one winning season in 19.
For you mathematical types, that means 5.2631 percent of all Phoenix/Arizona teams have had a winning season – just a shade below Arizona’s current state sales-tax rate of 5.6 percent.
You’d think that the Cardinals would at least have jumped out to a good start a few times in two decades, but no. This 3-2 start equals their best start through five games in Arizona history … and those teams, as you might expect, didn’t keep their good thing going.
The last time they were 3-2 was 2002. They were coming off a promising 7-9 season, and the “Are the Arizona Cardinals for real” stories were flowing like poorly brewed iced tea after they started 3-2. These features only intensified when the Cards beat Dallas 9-6 to go to 4-2. With franchise QB Jake Plummer leading the offense and the D allowing just 15.5 per game, the Cardinals were finally a team on the rise.
The end of the story? The Cardinals went 1-9 the rest of the way under Dave “I Swear, I Was A Head Coach in the NFL” McGinnis, the defense allowed 32.4 PPG in the last 10 games, and Plummer departed for Denver as soon as the paint was dry on a 5-11 season.
They were also 3-2 in 1991 under Joe Bugel, but the Cardinals responded to that hot start by going (gulp!) 1-10 the rest of the way.
And i
n 1988, when they were the brand-new Phoenix Cardinals, they started out 3-2 under Gene Stallings, and went 4-7 the rest of the way – including five losses to end the season.
Now, under first-year man Ken Whisenhunt, they’re 3-2 again.
So, is there a difference?
Well, this Cardinal team does have a few things going for it.
1. Good play on both sides of the ball. Arizona is currently 10th in scoring offense (23.6 PPG) and 20th in scoring defense (22.2). Only once in the 19 seasons in Arizona have they finished in the top 20 in both categories – a 1994 season in which they finished seventh in scoring and ninth in defense but still managed to go 7-9.
2. A legitimate running back. The Cardinals’ running woes over the years border on the ridiculous, and lived on in 2006 when Edgerrin James averaged just 3.4 per carry. But James is up to 4.1 per carry through five games, and is on pace for 1,414 yards – which would shatter the franchise post-move record of 1,159 he set in 2006. And he is a borderline Hall of Famer with some actual gas left in the tank (unlike the previous import, Emmitt Smith).
3. A decent front seven. Arizona is on pace for 44.8 sacks, and is allowing 4.04 yards per carry. Neither number is spectacular, but would be improvements on the already improved marks of 38 sacks and 4.14 per carry a year ago.
4. Kurt Warner. With Matt Leinart’s crying for the job all to himself silenced by the fickle finger of fate (a broken collarbone), it’s Warner’s job alone. And as we detailed in an earlier piece, this is a good thing. Over 2+ seasons in Arizona, Warner has played the equivalent of just over a full season and his numbers are excellent: an 88.4 rating, with 21 TDs to 15 INTs in 611 pass attempts.
5. Six more very winnable home games. The Cardinals have some big road tests left (at Washington, at Tampa, at Seattle, at Cincinnati). But at home, it looks like very smooth sailing: Carolina this weekend, then Detroit, San Francisco, Cleveland, Atlanta and St. Louis. Combined record of those opponents: 8-17.
If the Cardinals can go 5-1 in those six home games and steal a road upset, we’re looking at a 9-7 record and – dare we say it? – a playoff spot.
Hey, it could happen.
Even to the Arizona Cardinals.
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