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Icy Issues: Big D makes Dallas the real deal
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 5, 2007

By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts ice princess
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts tackle the NFL's most pressing pigskin problems with our weekly Icy Issues.
 
Icy Issues: Are the Cowboys for real?
Icier Response: Absolutely, thanks to the improved play of their defense.
 
The offense in Dallas gets attention, thanks to Tony Romo’s dimples, Terrell Owens’ star power, and a league-leading 37.8 PPG. Romo, for his part, has extinguished the painful memories of his 2006 postseason special-teams flub with his spectacular play through the first four games of 2007.
 
The Cowboys average a tremendous 9.1 yards per pass attempt, according to the adjusted formula used by the Cold, Hard Football Facts (which takes into account sacks). That’s tops in the league, even ahead of the 8.9 yards per pass attempt turned out by Tom Brady & Co. in New England.
 
But the factor that makes the Cowboys a true contender this year, when they weren’t last year, is their surging defense, especially against the pass. The Dallas secondary is filled with a galaxy of high draft picks (three starters taken in the first 42 picks) who should be superstars. In the past, they’ve simply failed to live up to expectations. Last year, for example, Dallas finished 20th in Defensive Passer Rating (83.2).
 
This season, the attention paid to the secondary (which included the acquisition this year of prize free agent Ken Hamlin fromm Seattle) is finally paying off. The Cowboys are second in the league, behind only the Chiefs, with a Defensive Passer Rating of 62.9, an improvement of better than 20 points over 2006.
 
Dallas has also played well against the run, allowing opponents a mere 80.5 YPG. Last year, the Cowboys surrendered 103.7 rushing yards per game.
 
As a result, the Cowboys surrender 18.0 PPG at this point in the season. They allowed 21.9 PPG in 2006.
 
We know the Dallas offense is legitimate, based upon its performance over the last two seasons under Romo. But the Cowboys may finally have the balance on both sides of the ball needed to produce a Super Bowl contender.
 
We’ll know much more in about 10 days, when New England visits Dallas, in a potential battle of undefeated 5-0 teams.
 
Icy Issues: Who should be the No. 1 quarterback in Arizona?
Icier Response: No question, Kurt Warner
 
Why Kurt Warner vs. Matt Leinart is even a debate defies reason. Warner is a better, more productive quarterback by every imaginable measure, both this season and through a career which has left him with the third-best passer rating in the entire history of the NFL (94.3), behind only Steve Young and Peyton Manning.
 
Warner’s superiority over Leinart is apparent simply by looking at ultimate arbiter of all things pigskin, the Cold, Hard Football Facts. Here’s how the two quarterbacks stack up this season:
 
 
Comp.
Att.
Pct.
Yards
YPA
TD
INT
Rating
Warner
29
41
70.7
390
9.5
3
0
125.1
Leinart
53
99
53.5
547
5.5
2
3
63.8
 
In what parallel pigskin universe is this even a question? On an even playing field, with the same talent around them, the Cold, Hard Football Facts leave no doubt about who’s the better performer.
 
But if any organization could screw up something so obvious, it’s a Cardinals franchise that is, without question, the worst in NFL history. The Cardinals are one of the original NFL franchises from 1920, when they played in Chicago. In the entire 87-season history of the NFL, they’ve won just two – yes, that’s right, it’s not a misprint – two playoff games.
 
But opportunity is in front of them here in 2007. The NFC West is the weakest division in football and the division crown is clearly there for the taking. Arizona is 2-2. They already have a win over 3-1 division leader Seattle.
 
Certainly, Warner is not the quarterback of the future. He’s 36-years old. Leinart is just 24, and in his second year in the NFL. But if Arizona wants to win this season, Warner is the man for the job.
 
Icy Issues: What’s wrong with Chicago?
Icier Response: The offensive line has more holes in it than Sonny Corleone’s body.   
 
Quarterbacks are always the easiest targets when an offense hits the skids. And, clearly, Chicago quarterback Rex Grossman deserved his share of criticism for his sub-par performances dating back to the middle of last season. He was finally replaced last week by Brian Griese, who boasts one of the 20 best passer ratings in the history of football.
 
But Griese certainly didn’t shower himself in glory last week, either, tossing three costly INTs, including one that was returned for a TD, in a 37-27 loss to Detroit. The defense deserves plenty of blame, too, for surrendering an NFL-record 34 fourth-quarter points.
 
But an offensive line that rates dead last in the NFL in the Cold, Hard Football Facts Offensive Hog Index has been the team’s true problem.
 
Griese was sacked six times by the Lions, including three sacks alone by defensive end Jared DeVries, who had recorded just eight sacks previously in his entire nine-year career. The Bears have now allowed 15 sacks in four games. Only three teams have given up more.
 
In our Offensive Hog Index, the Bears rank 27th in rushing yards per attempt (3.3), 30th in third-down conversion rate (33.3 percent), and 32nd in negative pass plays allowed (sacks or INTs on 15.3 percent of quarterback drop-backs).
 
It all adds up the worst offensive line in football: a unit that can’t open holes for the run game, can’t keep pressure off its quarterbacks and can’t avoid the blame any longer.

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