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Friday Beer Run: Tastes Great, More Filling
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 5, 2007
The Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats continue to point us in truer direction as we get deeper into the season.
We picked two underdogs to win outright in Week 3, and followed up with two more in Week 4 (Seattle +1.5 at San Fran, Tampa +3 at Carolina). Not bad, although all the credit goes to our Quality Stats - these picks are based almost solely on how the teams match up in our home-made statistical categories. After going 5-2 straight up last week (plus 4-3 against the spread and 2-5 on over-under) we're:
- 16-12 straight up
- 14-14 against the spread
- 12-16 on over/under
It's been a nice recovery from a disastrous Week 1, when we really have nothing to go on but last year's numbers which, obviously, can be incredibly misleading. Keep in mind, too, that we only pick the most intriguing matchups of the week, so our straight-up record won't be as strong as those who pick the easy ones (although we did give ourselves one from the ladies' tees with New England over Buffalo two weeks ago, just to see what a 16-point bloodbath of a spread looks like when measured by our Quality Stats).
As for our Vegas-style success, we're not even close to as good as Bonzo, our Idiot Prognosticating Monkey – that simian S.O.B. is like 15 games over .500 against the spread just by randomly flipping a coin.
Ouch.
Oh well, we can't let monkey business get in the way of our more thoughtful analsyis. This week's Friday Beer Run analyzes three key interconference matchups along with some big divisional games.
Let's see what the Cold, Hard Football Facts are telling us.
TAMPA BAY at INDIANAPOLIS
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Teams |
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3-1 |
Overall Record |
4-0 |
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0-1 |
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1-0 |
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66.1 (3) |
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76.6 (10t) |
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26.52 YPPA (1) |
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16.41 YPPA (14) |
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16.062 YPPS (17) |
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12.32 YPPS (3) |
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11th (tie) |
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1st |
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4th (tie) |
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27th (tie) |
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7.53 (4) |
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8.02 (3) |
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+7 (5) |
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+5 (7t) |
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+9.5 |
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-9.5 |
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46 |
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46 |
As you can see from our Quality Stats, Tampa's early-season success has been no fluke - it's been built upon rock-solid play. The Bucs defensive numbers are on par with those of their Super Bowl team from 2002: No. 1 in scoring defense (11.0 PPG), No. 1 in Bendability, No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating and tied for No. 4 in our Defensive Hog Index.
Factor in Indy's injuries (Joseph Addai, Marvin Harrison and Bob Sanders, all of whom may miss the game), and the Bucs actually look to have the edge in this game.
However, Tampa's defense has made its three-game reputation against three QBs with shattered confidence – Drew Brees, Marc Bulger and David Carr, all of whom need a hug badly.
Peyton Manning needs no hugs.
All he needs is a couple of healthy targets (Clark, Wayne, Gonzalez), a few more TV jobs, a couple more titles and all of the NFL's passing records.
His Colts remain an offensive juggernaut: No. 3 in Scoreability, No. 3 in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 1 in our Offensive Hog Index.
Add the Manning factor to Indy's home-field, big-game edge, and the Bucs will have to settle for a moral victory.
The score: Indianapolis 23, Tampa Bay 20
NEW YORK JETS at NEW YORK GIANTS
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Teams |
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1-3 |
Overall Record |
2-2 |
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0-1 |
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1-2 |
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106.9 (31) |
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97.2 (24) |
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14.19 YPPA (22) |
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12.96 YPPA (27) |
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15.74 YPPS (15) |
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14.66 YPPS (11) |
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20th |
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9th (tie) |
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26th |
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4th (tie) |
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5.74 (21) |
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5.88 (19) |
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-1 (16t) |
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+2 (12) |
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+2.5 |
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-2.5 |
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41 |
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41 |
The Cold, Hard Football Facts had to check the spread in this game several times before determining that it was not, in fact, a typo. The Giants favored by just 2.5 over the Jets, in their New Jersey home game?
Way too low. The Giants will dominate this game in the trenches – they have huge advantages in Offensive Hog vs. Defensive Hog (G-Men 9th, J-E-T-S 26th) and Defensive Hog vs. Jets' Offensive Hog (4th vs. 20th)
And the Giants' passing attack has put up some pretty decent numbers (19th in YPA) while playing against four teams currently in the top 12 in Defensive Passer Rating. Wethinks they will fare quite well against the Jets, who are 31st in this category
Give the Jets a few points for the diminished road factor and J-E-T pride ... and they'll need them.
The final score: New York Giants 31, New York Jets 13
SEATTLE at PITTSBURGH
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Seattle Seahawks |
Teams |
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3-1 |
Overall Record |
3-1 |
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1-0 |
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0-0 |
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67.6 (4) |
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69.3 (6) |
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24.74 YPPA (3) |
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22.00 YPPA (5) |
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16.37 YPPS (19) |
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12.77 YPPS (5) |
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24th |
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3rd |
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14th (tie) |
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7th (tie) |
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7.34 (7) |
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6.3675 (16) |
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+5 (7t) |
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+8 (2t) |
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+5.5 |
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-5.5 |
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39 |
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39 |
These are two very solid teams, the Steelers a bit tougher all around. They're in the top seven of the entire league in six of our seven Quality Stats.
Sharing a 3-1 record, the Seahawks and Steelers have also played two common opponents, Arizona and San Francisco, with similar results: they both lost by a single score to the Cardinals and they both crushed the 49ers like insignificant little bugs.
Both have excellent Defensive Passer Ratings, but aside from the two common opponents Seattle faced Jeff Garcia and Carson Palmer while the Steelers faced the firm of Frye/Anderson of Cleveland and then J.P. Losman of Buffalo. So the edge goes to the Seahawks there.
However, the biggest edge goes to the Steelers' Defensive Hogs (7th) over Seattle's Offensive Hogs (24th). The Seahawks will find it tough to run the ball.
And although the AFC and NFC are tied at 8-8 heads up this year, Pittsburgh's edge on both lines and home cooking at Heinz Field is enough to keep the old stereotype of supremacy around.
No Super Bowl revenge for you, Seahawks. But at least you don't have TE Jerramy Stevens around to drop balls and drive drunk anymore.
The final score: Pittsburgh 27, Seattle 20
DETROIT at WASHINGTON
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Teams |
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3-1 |
Overall Record |
2-1 |
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0-0 |
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0-0 |
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83.1 (15) |
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75.4 (9) |
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12.62 YPPA (28) |
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18.94 YPPA (8) |
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13.59 YPPS (7) |
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18.81 YPPS (25) |
| 31st |
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16th |
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16th |
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14th (tie) |
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6.836 (11) |
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6.67 (12) |
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-1 (16t) |
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-2 (20) |
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+3.5 |
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-3.5 |
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46 |
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46 |
The big question here is, which style of football will prevail?
Will the Redskins, who have averaged two Big Plays per game, keep it solid and safe, and try to slug out a low-scoring win? Or will they come out juiced against a Lions team that allows opponents a league-high 5.75 Big Plays per game?
We know what the Lions will do – throw on every down despite a terrible offensive line (31st in the Offensive Hog Index). Last year, when Washington was rock bottom in Defensive Passer Rating and Defensive Hog Index, you'd say the Lions would find all kinds of success in the air, but the Skins are in the above-average range in 2006 (14th in Defensive Hog Index, 9th in Defensive Passer Rating).
Washington has been under the total in all three of its games so far, but has had some notable scoring explosions in Joe Gibbs' so-so second stint as coach. Matched up against the predictable unpredictability of the Mike Martz offense, his Skins will have another scoring blitz.
And, for the final piece of the puzzle, yes, the Lions are 0-20 lifetime in Washington.
The final score: Washington 38, Detroit 28
SAN DIEGO at DENVER
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Teams |
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1-3 |
Overall Record |
2-2 |
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0-2 |
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0-2 |
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98.3 (25) |
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82.3 (14) |
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13.76 YPPA (23) |
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12.44 YPPA (30) |
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17.07 YPPS (22) |
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21.25 YPPS (28) |
| 27th |
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4th |
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10th (tie) |
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20th (tie) |
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5.54 (25) |
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7.50 (5) |
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-7 (29) |
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-3 (21t) |
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+1 |
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-1 |
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42 |
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42 |
Matched up in our Quality Stats, these are two pretty terrible teams.
Yet they're still the heavy favorites to win the AFC West, thanks to their prior reputations and assemblage of big-name talent.
The big mismatch is on the side of the Denver passing attack. Jay Cutler has the Broncos averaging 7.5 Passing Yards Per Attempt (fifth) despite being without top WR Javon Walker the past two weeks. And San Diego's pass defense is pretty poor (98.3 Defensive Passer Rating, 25th).
About the only area where the Chargers have been decent is on the D-line (tied for 10th in our Defensive Hog Index), but they'll be running up against Denver's No. 4 Offensive Hogs.
Denver hasn't covered a game yet this year, but they'll cover this one against the pathetic Norv Turner.
The final score: Denver 24, San Diego 17
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
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Teams |
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1-3 |
Overall Record |
4-0 |
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0-2 |
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0-0 |
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102.1 (29) |
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79.0 (12) |
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13.53 YPPA (25) |
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