NEW ENGLAND at CINCINNATI
|
|
Teams |
|
|
3-0 |
Overall Record |
1-2 |
|
0-0 |
|
0-1 |
|
17.74 YPPA (9) |
|
12.30 YPPA (29) |
|
11.61 YPPS (2) |
|
12.68 YPPS (7) |
|
2nd |
|
11th |
|
1st |
|
t20th |
|
9.54 (1) |
|
7.00 (8) |
|
79.4 (11) |
|
87.6 (19) |
|
+6 (t4) |
|
-4 (t25) |
|
-7.5 |
|
+7.5 |
|
53 |
|
53 |
There's a certain segment of "pundit" out there which believes this Monday Night Football showdown will be a high-scoring affair for both teams.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts don't see it. In fact, we're looking really, really hard, and it just doesn't show up anywhere.
Sure, the Bengals are pretty darn good on offense: they rank 7th in Scoreability, 8th in Passing Yards per Attempt and 11th in our Offensive Hog Index. They also rank 2nd in passing offense (301.0 YPG), 4th in total offense (393.0 YPG) and 5th in scoring offense (31.0 PPG).
But the Bengals are going up against what appears to be one of the dominant defenses in football. The Patriots are No. 1 in our Defensive Hog Index, 9th in Bendability and 11th in Defensive Passer Rating. And by more traditional measures, the Patriots are No. 1 in total defense (207.0 YPG), No. 2 in passing defense (133.0 YPG), No. 3 in scoring defense (11.7 PPG) and No. 5 in rush defense (74.0 YPG).
It hardly sounds like a favorable match-up for the Cincy offense. At best, it's an even battle. Plus, the Bengals simply have been unable (or unwilling) to run the ball this year, as evidenced by a group of Offensive Hogs that are 24th in YPA and 21st in rushing yards (92.0) PPG.
So what we have here is a one-dimensional offense going up against a Bill Belichick defense that's at the height of its game. Yeah, that sounds like a recipe for a lot of points.
When New England has the ball, meanwhile, it's a total mismatch. Suffice it to say, the Bengals are in the bottom half of the league in every Quality Stat and near the dead bottom of the league in almost every traditional stat. The Patriots, meanwhile, are near the top of every offensive measure: No. 1 in scoring offense (38.0 PPG), No. 1 in total offense (441.0 YPG), No. 2 in our Scoreability Index,
Hell, the damn Browns hung 51 on the Bungles. This could be even uglier.
The "pundits" are right about one thing, folks. There will be a lot of points scored tonight. It's just that one team will score about 70 percent of them.
The score: New England 41, Cincinnati 17
