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Week 4 Picks: The Facts are loud and proud
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 27, 2007
The Cold, Hard Football Facts have recovered nicely from early-season woes, getting back to even after a preposterously bad 1-6 start in Week 1.
The facts were so good last week that we successfully picked road underdogs to win - Green Bay at home vs. San Diego and Tennessee in New Orleans.
Kudos to us.
After going 5-2 straight up and against the spread and 4-3 on over-under last week, we're:
- 11-10 straight up
- 10-11 against the spread
- 10-11 on over/under
Keep in mind that we only pick the most intriguing matchups of the week, so our straight-up record won't be as strong as those who pick the easy ones (although we did give ourselves one from the ladies' tees with New England over Buffalo last week).
This week's Friday Beer Run analyzes some surprisingly good Sunday matchups that would have been practically laughable a month ago. Bears-Lions? Panthers-Bucs? Seahawks-49ers?
All good games, with first place on the line in the latter two.
Let's see what the numbers are telling us.
CHICAGO at DETROIT
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Teams |
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1-2 |
Overall Record |
2-1 | |
0-1 |
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0-0 | |
92.4 (23) |
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90.5 (22) | |
16.81 YPPA (13) |
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13.02 YPPA (27) | |
20.61 YPPS (25) |
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16.09 YPPS (19) | |
32nd |
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28th (tie) | |
8th |
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26th (tie) | |
4.22 (31) |
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6.77 (11) | |
-2 (19t) |
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-3 (24) | |
-3 |
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+3 | |
45 |
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45 |
From all of our indicators, these are two pretty terrible teams facing off this week. The only group to appear in the top 10 in any of our eight quality stats is the Bears' Defensive Hogs (8th).
The easy pick is Chicago, figuring that the equation Bears-Grossman+Griese=victory over Lions. Chicago is favored, even though they're on the road, playing poorly, and as injured as any team in the NFC.
Here's a nugget from our friends at atsdatabase.com: Since 1984, any home underdogs (Lions) playing division opponents (Bears) coming off a September loss on grass against the spread (Lions) have a combined record of 3-18.
Interesting, but not that helpful. The Bears' defense has done its best to overcome the team's terrible offense thus far, and should be able to attack the Lions' offensive line (28th in the Offensive Hog Index).
Both teams have been involved in an exorbitant number of Big Plays thus far. Detroit has seen 33 Big Plays go down on both sides of the ball (1st in the NFL), Chicago 24 Big Plays (5th). So the over of 45 looks good, especially in the dome.
As to the winner, a change at quarterback -- and a truly awful D on the other side of the ball -- is bound to increase production on the Chicago attack, and despite the big passing totals Detroit is only 15th in passer rating and last in sacks taken.
The score: Chicago 34, Detroit 26
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA
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Teams |
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3-0 |
Overall Record |
1-2 | |
0-0 |
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0-1 | |
81.4 (16) |
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76.8 (8t) | |
19.44 YPPA (7) |
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25.86 YPPA (2) | |
12.05 YPPS (5) |
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17.00 YPPS (23) | |
19th |
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26th | |
13th (tie) |
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6th | |
6.19 (19) |
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5.02 (28) | |
+7 (3) |
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+5 (6t) | |
-1 |
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+1 | |
38 |
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38 |
The Minnesota Vikings are putting together a hell of a season ... on one side of the ball, at least. They have top-10 ranks in Defensive Passer Rating (t-8th), Bendability (2nd) and Defensive Hogs (6th).
However, their offense is plenty terrible, even on their much-lauded offensive line (26th in the Offensive Hog Index).
The Packers have played extremely efficient football, with a No. 7 rank in Bendability on defense and a No. 5 in Scoreability on offense. They can't run the ball (32nd in yards per carry) and Minnesota doesn't allow it (1st in yards per carry allowed), so Brett Favre will be passing all day again.
While this approach worked wonders against the Giants (16h Defensive Hogs) and Lions (26th), it didn't work so great against Philly (2nd) and won't work well against Minnesota.
But can the Vikings score enough to win? Considering their lack of Scoreability -- and the Packers' excellent defensive grades -- the answer is no.
The final score: Packers 13, Vikings 10
TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA
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Teams |
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2-1 |
Overall Record |
2-1 | |
0-1 |
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0-1 | |
71.1 (5) |
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97.7 (24) | |
25.16 YPPA (4) |
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12.72 YPPA (28) | |
15.34 YPPS (17) |
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13.92 YPPS (11) | |
20th |
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13th (tie) | |
20th (tie) |
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24th | |
7.69 (5) |
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6.52 (16) | |
+4 (8t) |
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-2 (19t) | |
+3 |
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-3 | |
39.5 |
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39.5 |
Carolina's defense has been strangely absent so far this season -- they have been as bad as any good team in the NFL in our three indicators, 24th in Defensive Passer Rating, 28th in Bendability, 24th in Defensive Hog.
And Tampa, with its 7.69 yards per attempt (5th) and +4 on the Big Play Index looks like a team that can take full advantage. Carolina hasn't done anything well, and the Bucs have Ronde Barber and the No. 5 pass defense (71.1 opposition rating) to attempt to shut down Panther WR Steve Smith.
With all due respect to the home cookin' of Carolina Blue, the better team is wearing pewter.
The final score: Tampa Bay 27, Carolina 20
DENVER at INDIANAPOLIS
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Teams |
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2-1 |
Overall Record |
3-0 | |
0-1 |
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2-0 | |
59.8 (1) |
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76.8 (8t) | |
13.39 YPPA (25) |
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15.93 YPPA (15) | |
22.62 YPPS (27) |
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12.85 YPPS (8) | | 8th |
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7th | |
15th |
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11th (tie) | |
7.85 (4) |
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8.25 (3) | |
-2 (19t) |
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+4 (8t) | |
+9.5 |
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-9.5 | |
46 |
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46 |
This one is being billed as Peyton Manning (No. 3 Passing YPA) vs. the Broncos' secondary (1st in Defensive Passer Rating), and that's a fair assessment.
But for the Broncos, the key to victory (or at least keeping it close) is converting solid play into points and vice versa. Denver is 27th in offensive Bendability and 25th in defensive Scoreability, so while they're playing well on both sides of the ball they're not making the most of it. Denver has outgained opponents by 372 yards this year -- more than the Colts at +311 -- but is getting outscored 77-75 while Indy is up 93-54.
This is probably a bit of an early-season fluke for Denver, and the reason they've struggled to win games. Denver was 16th in Scoreability and 6th in Bendability in 2006, and coach Mike Shanahan has proven that he can fix problems.
So, Denver is better than it looks, but are the Broncos good enough to push Indy? The game is even in the trenches, and the Colts played tight games against Houston and Tennessee. This one will follow suit -- but at home, the Colts are as sure a thing as you can find (18-2 since start of 2005 season).
The final score: Indidanapolis 24, Denver 20
PHILADELPHIA at NEW YORK GIANTS
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Teams |
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1-2 |
Overall Record |
1-2 | |
1-2 |
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1-2 | |
79.0 (10) |
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108.9 (29) | |
17.26 YPPA (11) |
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11.40 YPPA (31) | |
14.31 YPPS (12) |
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14.97 YPPS (14) | | 9th |
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3rd | |
2nd |
| 16th (tie) | |
6.99 (9) |
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6.11 (20) | |
+1 (13t) |
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+2 (11t) | |
-3 |
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+3 | |
47.5 |
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47.5 |
The Eagles should be able to score at will against the G-Men, who are allowing opposing passers a rating of 108.9 that's so high it should be tested for substance abuse. The Eagles are 9th in Passing Yards per Attempt and Offensive Hog Index, and no one bends + breaks like the Giants (31st in Bendability).
New York's offensive line is its strength (No. 3 in the Offensive Hog Index), but will be running into the No. 2 Defensive Hogs from Philly. There's going to be a lot of slobber on that pile.
The Giants have the home-field edge, but they've lost five straight there dating back to 2006 - a remarkable run for a team that's generally competitive week in and week out.
Make it six straight.
The final score: Philadelphia 34, New York 20
SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO
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Teams |
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2-1 |
Overall Record |
2-1 | |
1-0 |
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0-1 | |
81.3 (14) |
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81.2 (13) | |
22.54 YPPA (5) |
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14.33 YPPA (20) | |
16.45 YPPS (20) |
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12.62 YPPS (6) | |
21st (tie) |
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30th (tie) | |
28th |
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25th | |
7.06 (7) |
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4.32 (30) | |
+2 (11t) |
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Even (15t) | |
+1.5 |
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-1.5 | |
41 |
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41 |
Only in the NFC could two teams with such repulsive numbers be 2-1.
Neither team is particularly good at anything, and whatever mild strengths either team have seem to have are counteracted by the mild strengths of the other.
This is one first-place battle that should be ashamed of itself. Finding a winner in this morass of mediocrity isn't easy, and we refuse to resort to checking the 2006 stat sheets for reference - after all, as any coach will tell you, last year doesn't mean anything.
Since Seattle has beaten a better breed of opponent (Tampa and Cincinnati) than San Francisco (Arizona and St. Louis), they get the edge despite the Niners' home-field advantage.
The final score: Seattle 28, San Francisco 24
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