Picking underdogs to win outright is something of a Cold, Hard Football Facts specialty, dating back to our earliest days three years ago.

 

We don’t always pick underdogs to pull out wins, but when we do, you can be reasonably certain it will happen.

 

Week 3 provided a pair of textbook examples.

 

We couldn’t for the chubby lives of us figure out why Tennessee was a 4.5-point underdog on the road against a dreadful New Orleans team. Clearly reputations were at work here, and not Cold, Hard Football Facts.

 

The spread really made no sense when you looked at the game utterly devoid of emotion (for whatever reason, the Saints remain something of a sentimental favorite .... and we don't have sentiments, unless we're thinking about great beers we have loved). Tennessee has clearly been better this season. Simple as that.

 

So we called for an outright Tennessee victory, by six points no less. The Titans exceeded even our expectations, and won by 17 (31-14) – a big victory by a road underdog.

 

And on Sunday, Green Bay was a 4.5-point underdog at home against a Chargers team with no spark. Again, this made no sense … unless you were thinking about the 14-2 2006 Chargers and considered the AFC’s dominance such an overpowering factor that Norv Turner could actually beat a 2-0 NFC team.

 

He couldn’t.

 

We predicted an outright win by the Packers, 16-14 at home at Lambeau. Like the Titans, the Packers exceeded even our expectations. Led by the rejuvenated Brett Favre (3 TD passes), Green Bay beat the Chargers 31-24.

 

(The win by Green Bay also reconfirmed one of the basic maxims of the Cold, Hard Football Facts: never count on Norv Turner … but that’s well-trodden territory).

 

Bottom line: if we predict and outright win by an underdog, you better pay attention. Nailing these unexpected winners is something of a Cold, Hard Football Facts tradition.