Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: Icy Issues: We've got the answers

Icy Issues: We've got the answers
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 21, 2007

By Jonathan Comey

Cold, Hard Football Facts iceman

It’s time for another edition of “Icy Issues,” where we cool down NFL passions with the Coldest, Hardest Football Facts on God’s big blue earth.

If we had emotions, we'd pride ourselves on our lack of emotion. Has this life choice led to failed marriages, broken friendships, pets that hate us? Sure.

But it’s also given us the ability to channel the truth in a football world thick with pontificating “pundits” and more talking heads than an episode of “We Are The 80s.”

In a time when dirty water rules, we offer cream – frothy, sweet, emotionless cream.

And really, what’s $22,000 in back alimony when you have frothy cream?

----------------------------------------------------------------

Icy Issue: Is "video-gate" over?

Icier Response: Yes, but media vultures and stool pigeons will not let it rest.

The NFL “received and destroyed all material it requested from the New England Patriots concerning videotaping” the Associated Press reported Thursday night, adding that the team “was in compliance” with the league’s request for tapes and documents.

The news will simply add fuel to the fire for the rabid media vultures circling Belichick, waiting to extract more flesh from the coach's reputation. Belichick stool pigeons, meanwhile, will use the news as evidence that the original incident against the N.Y. Jets, the single incident for which he was punished, was an isolated event.

The truth, as it so often does, probably lies somewhere in the middle. It may be a cover-up to prevent the league, or one of its most visible figures, any more embarrassment. Or there truly may be no more damning evidence. But one way or the other, the story is over, at least in the eyes of the only party here who matters, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell.

The vultures and stool pigeons can return to their roosts. There’s nothing more to see here.

Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: With a 13-3 (.813) postseason record, Belichick is second all-time to Vince Lombardi (9-1; .900)

Icy Issue: Are the Lions going to win 10 games?

Icier Response: Not if they keep coughing up the ball.

Lions QB Jon Kitna boasted in the preseason that his team would win 10 (or more) games. It was a reasonable prediction.

Year in and year out, there have been teams to jump forward 6, 7, 8 games from one season to the next, and the Lions are one of the candidates in 2007, after a 3-13 campaign in 2006.

Being two-tenths of the way to 10 after two weeks doesn’t hurt. But the Lions face a long, tough grind if they want to get the other eight-tenths.

Seven of their 14 remaining games are against teams currently residing in our Dominant Dozen, and they have road trips to 2-0 Washington, Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, San Diego, Philadelphia and Arizona. The Lions will probably be underdogs in all of those games – they’re 6.5-point dogs at 0-2 Philly this weekend. So Detroit's 2-0 start hasn't really garnered any respect in Vegas.

And turnovers, always deadly, are already a problem for the Lions. Their seven giveaways in two games is dead last in the NFL (tied with Chicago). Detroit's turnovers have been neutralized by their eight takeaways, but they won’t be playing the Josh McCowns and Tarvaris Jacksons of the world anymore.

Last year, the Lions gave up the ball 39 times, third-worst in the league.

Unless the Lions find a way to hold on to the ball, those close wins, like the three-point victory last week against Minnesota, are going to turn into 10-point losses in a hurry.

But the football world is rooting for them, the poor pathetic bastards.

Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Detroit’s three-game win streak (dating back to the last week of 2006) is their longest since November of 2000.
Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact 2: The Lions were 78-82 (.488) during Barry Sanders’ 10 incredible seasons in Detroit (1989-98). They're 41-89 since (.315).

Icy Issue: Could Jeff Fisher make the Hall of Fame someday?

Icier Response: Yes, if he wins a championship.

For those with feelings, there are a lot of reasons to like Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher.

One is his facial hair, which has gone from ‘stache to beard to goatee to black to grey to black again. The Jeff Fisher beard-go-round is just one of the thousands of things that make football great.

More importantly, with Tennessee's move to extend Fisher through 2011, a Hall of Fame career could be in the cards.

Fisher has already put together one of the longest single-franchise tenures of any coach in NFL history – 200 games in the regular season with one team.

To put that in perspective, eight of the nine coaches with longer one-franchise tenures are in the Hall of Fame already: Bud Grant, George Halas, Curly Lambeau, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, Steve Owen, Don Shula and Hank Stram. The only exception? Bill Cowher, who will likely join the club when it’s all said and done.

Good company indeed.

Of course, Fisher has a ways to go if he wants to take the "Darn Good" train to "Legendtown."

He’s only 106-94 lifetime, and has just one Super Bowl appearance (the famous loss to the Rams in Super Bowl XXXIV, in which his team fell inches short of a game-tying score as time expired.)

But believe it or not, he’s also just 49 years old, and still comes off more like a young coach than a staid old-timer like Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren or Bill Belichick.

If he makes it to age 59, he’s got a legitimate shot at 200 wins.

Part of the equation is the maturation of Vince Young. If Fisher can stick around in Tennessee for the duration of Young’s career (the QB is already a proven winner) you’d have to think a Super Bowl might be in the mix somewhere.

It’ll be fun to watch. Just like his facial hair.

Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Fisher played cornerback next to Ronnie Lott all four years at USC from 1977-1980.
Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact 2: In 1984, his NFL career ended on special teams, thanks to a hit delivered by Bill Cowher.

Icy Issue: Should Josh McCown be starting in Oakland?

Icier Response: Only if losing is the primary goal.

If coach Lane Baby Face Kiffin has a long-term plan for McCown, the move to keep Daunte Culpepper on the bench can certainly be defended. Let's face it, considering the shoddy state of affairs in Oaktown anytime the Raiders are doing long-term planning it’s a good thing.

But based on McCown’s on-field production, the decision makes no sense at all. Even in Culpepper’s worst moments as an NFL QB, he hasn’t been as bad as McCown has been through two games this year.

While McCown’s 68.0 passer rating thus far must seem like an A+ when compared to last year’s horrific Raider passing numbers, he’s been significantly worse than his rating.

In two games, McCown has thrown five interceptions and fumbled five times (he managed to get all five back). That’s an awful lot of mistakes for two games, and the five fumbles don't show up on any stat sheet, even as they amount to an entire unproductive play for the offense.

McCown's has a decent yardage total, 386. But almost half of his total has come thanks to 179 yards-after-the-catch by his receivers – tops in the league despite his No. 22 rank in passing yards

Considering that his last team, Detroit, played him at receiver at the end of the season, the Raiders are definitely putting their second-best foot forward with McCown – especially since the QB of the future is already there in Jamarcus Russell.

Puzzling.

Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: In college, he could easily pull off 360-degree dunks on the basketball court.
Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact 2: First name is “Josh.”

Icy Issue: Is third-down success pivotal to winning?

Icier Response: Does a Cold, Hard Football Facts.com reader drink beer in the woods?

This seems like a no-brainer, and it is. You extend drives, control clock, march toward the end zone – of course it’s important. But we wanted to look a bit deeper and get an idea of just how important third-down conversions are.

In the very short sample of the 2007 season, the numbers haven’t been overwhelming. Offensively, the 10 best teams at converting third downs have a collective record of 11-9. The 10 worst teams have a record of 9-11. Not much of a swing.

But judging from the 2005-06 numbers, that gap will get much worse.

Here’s how it broke down a year ago:

Top 10 third-down offenses: combined 107-53 record (.669)
Bottom 10 third-down offense: 59-101 (.369)

In 2005, the numbers were very similar.

Top 10 third-down offenses: 97-63 (.606)
Bottom 10 third-down offense: 62-98 (.388)

Pretty overwhelming stuff. So keep it up, Pittsburgh (No. 1 in third-down success, 54.5 percent). Finish in that top spot, and you’ll probably be right where you are now – on top of the standings.

But you knew that already.

Bonus Cold, Hard Football Fact: Thanks to all of their early-down success, the Indianapolis Colts had the fewest third-down attempts in the league in 2004, 2005 and 2006.