Bettors still don't buy New England
Cold, Hard Football Facts for December 5, 2005

There's only thing more impressive than New England's 25-1 record since the start of its 21-game win streak last season: its 20-4-2 record against the spread over the same period.

A team's performance against the spread is generally a 50-50 proposition because, of course, the whole purpose of the spread is to make each game a toss up. A team that wins, say, 60 percent of its games against the spread would be a bettor's dream.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are making a mockery of the spread by besting it better than 80 percent over the time over the last season and a half.

It seems bettors are still plagued by the notion that the Patriots win only close game. Therefore, the betting public is unwilling to give New England the points they give to lesser teams. But the 2003 Patriots, of course, led the league in double-digit victories with seven. If that image wasn't put to rest last season, it should have suffered a death blow this season. New England has already won seven games by 10 or more points and its average margin of victory is 12.8 points. (Philly leads the league with eight double-digit victories; Pittsburgh has six.)

Still, the betting public doesn't get it. Consider that the defending Super Bowl-champion 10-1 Patriots – 20-4-2 ATS over the last 26 weeks – opened as a mere 8-point favorite against a 3-8 Cleveland team that surrendered 58 points to 5-6 Cincinnati last week. The spread opened up quite a bit over the course of the week, to 11½ points, but only after Cleveland fired its coach, announced that a third-string rookie quarterback would be making his first NFL start and released an injury report longer than BALCO's list of major league baseball clients.

Of course, 11½ points is a sizable spread by NFL standards, but it's laughable when compared with other spreads around the league. Consider these:

The Vikings (7-4) are 7½-point favorites at Chicago (4-7). The Vikings have scored just 29 points than they've surrendered all season; they're 2-3 on the road; and they have yet to beat a road opponent by more than seven.

The Jets (8-3) are 7-point favorites at home against Houston (5-6). The Jets have won only three games all year by more than seven: they beat Miami (2-9) 17-9 and 41-14, and Arizona (4-7) 13-3.

Even the movement on New England's spread isn't unusual. This week alone, Indy (8-3) opened as a 10-point favorite at home against Tennessee (4-7). The Colts were a 12-point favorite on game day. Detroit (4-7) opened as a 4-point favorite at home against Arizona (4-7). The spread jumped to 6 points – a whopping 50 percent swing – over the course of the week. But neither of those spreads should have moved as much as the New England-Cleveland spread when you consider the chaos that befell the Browns this week and the difference in the quality of the opponents in each game.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-1½). The Falcons (9-2) are a road underdog against Tampa Bay (4-7). Atlanta has squeaked out one close victory after another, but can boast two quality wins (both against AFC opponents no less): San Diego and at Denver. The Bucs have zero quality wins, with victories against only New Orleans, Chicago, Kansas City and San Francisco. The quality wins quotient indicates that Atlanta will win outright.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Jacksonville. Both teams have two quality wins. The Jaguars (6-5) won against Denver and at Indy. Pittsburgh's quality wins are more impressive. The Steelers (10-1) rocked both New England and Philly. But they had the benefit of facing both at home. This is one of just two road games against quality opponents that Pittsburgh will face all season. The last was a 30-13 defeat at Baltimore. The quality wins quotient says that Jacksonville will cover at home.