Being statistically obsessed (and with skin so translucent as to recall Edgar Winter), we spent much of the awful summer months indoors poring over internet porn and football-related questions.
One of these nagging queries kept repeating itself, over and over in our heads, like the song "Barbie Girl" or that image of our parents having sex in the garage. It was a simple question, but one that had no apparent answer: how the hell did the Tennessee Titans win eight games in 2006?
Here's how the Titans ranked in the major statistical categories in 2006:
- Offensive yards: 27th
- Defensive yards allowed: 32nd
- Yards per pass attempt: 29th
- Yards per rush: 7th
- Defensive yards per pass attempt: 21st
- Defensive yards per rush: 26th
- Points: 16th
- Points allowed: 32nd
- Pro Bowlers: None
OK. Good running game, passable secondary, terrible at everything else. So, how does that team – playing one of the toughest schedules in football, mind you – win eight games?
The answer?
Big plays.
From the time Vince Young entered the starting lineup in Week 4, the Titans were relentless in the pursuit of game-breaking plays. Blocked kicks, big returns, turnovers aplenty, long runs, long field goals – the Titans just had that knack. And while their opponents were driving up and down the field at will, they weren't answering the big-play call.
And so, the Titans went 8-8 and Young won Rookie of the Year despite a passer rating of 66.7.
Obviously, those big plays had a monumenal impact on Tennessee's fortunes – if you can be as all-around poor in as many categories as the Titans were, you must be doing something right.
So, in tribute to the 2006 Titans, today we launch our Big Play Index, a way to track who's making the big plays in the NFL, and how it correlates to winning games.
After much debate, we settled on the following as "Big Plays."
- Fumble recovery
- Interception
- Defensive score (return TD, safety)
- Pass play of 40 yards or more
- Run play of 25 yards or more
- Kick return of 60 yards or more
- Punt return of 40 yards or more
- Blocked kick or punt
In the hyper-competitive world of the NFL, where the differences in talent in most instances are negligible, Big Plays can make all the difference in the world.
Get three or four of these Big Plays in a game, you're probably going to win. Get one or two, you're probably not. It's that simple in an NFL ruled by cautious play-calling and salary-cap equality. Because returning a turnover for a score is the single most important play that can happen in an NFL game (see Bailey, Champ vs. Patriots, New England), it essentially counts as two big plays.
So, how important were Big Plays in Week 1?
Cold, Hard Football Fact: the winner of the big play battle in Week 1 won 12 of 13 games (3 ties) – only the Giants won the Big Play battle (4-3 over Dallas) and managed to lose.
It may not be that conclusive every week, but it's certainly off to a good start.
Our early Big Play king is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who bamboozled the Browns to the tune of +7 Big Plays on opening Sunday. The Brownies come in last at -7, behind Atlanta, Kansas City and New Orleans at -4. What do those bottom four teams have in common? They all lost their openers by 17 points or more.
Big Plays, indeed.
THE BIG PLAY INDEX
|
|
TEAM |
big plays
|
allowed
|
Net big plays
|
|
1
|
PIT
|
8
|
1
|
7
|
|
2
|
IND
|
6
|
2
|
4
|
|
2
|
HOU
|
6
|
2
|
4
|
|
2
|
MIN
|
5
|
1
|
4
|
|
5
|
CIN
|
7
|
4
|
3
|
|
5
|
GB
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
|
7
|
SEA
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
|
7
|
NE
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
|
9
|
SD
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
9
|
DET
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
9
|
NYG
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
9
|
WAS
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
9
|
SF
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
14
|
CAR
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
14
|
STL
|
3
|
3
|
0
|
|
14
|
BUF
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
14
|
DEN
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
14
|
TEN
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
14
|
JAX
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
|
20
|
CHI
|
3
|
4
|
-1
|
|
20
|
OAK
|
3
|
4
|
-1
|
|
20
|
DAL
|
3
|
4
|
-1
|
|
20
|
MIA
|
2
|
3
|
-1
|
|
20
|
AZ
|
1
|
2
|
-1
|
|
25
|
TB
|
2
|
4
|
-2
|
|
25
|
NYJ
|
0
|
2
|
-2
|
|
27
|
BAL
|
4
|
7
|
-3
|
|
27
|
PHI
|
2
|
5
|
-3
|
|
29
|
NO
|
2
|
6
|
-4
|
|
29
|
KC
|
2
|
6
|
-4
|
|
29
|
ATL
|
1
|
5
|
-4
|
|
32
|
CLE
|
1
|
8
|
-7
|
Big plays are: runs of 25 yards plus, passes of 40 yards plus, fumble recoveries, interceptions, blocked kicks/punts, defensive scores, field goals of 50 yards plus, kick returns of 60 yards plus, and punt returns of 40 yards plus.
