Is it possible to smell a collision course coming two months before it all ends up in a twisted wreck of bodies and reputations?
We think so.
It’s just one week into the 2007 season. But, believe it or not, the Colts and Patriots are already neck-and-neck near the top of the leaderboard in several of our all-important Quality Stats.
We already know the two preeminent pigskin powers of our time are destined for a primetime Nov. 4 collision and, in all likelihood, a do-or-die donnybrook in January. The Quality Stats, at least at this early point in the season, show that they’ll again stand locked in a viper-like gridiron death grip when it all goes down.
(Click the headlines to see more detailed overviews of each category. You can also see our Quality Stats homepage here or by clicking the "Quality Stats" icon in the navbar.)
The Quality Wins Quotient doesn’t start to tell us much until Week 3, after teams are able to pick up the first Quality Wins of the season. New England and Indy, of course, each laid waste to 2006 playoff teams in Week 1, which bodes well for their future record against Quality Opponents, assuming their victims, the Jets and Saints, are able to recover and come close to the 10-win seasons each had last year. San Diego’s win over Chicago will also in all likelihood go down as a Quality Win, as the Bears are
likely to remain one of the better teams in the NFC.
The ultimate utility of the Scoreability Index as a team-wide measure of offensive efficiency was on display in the Baltimore-Cincy Monday night battle. The Bengals generated just 236 yards of offense all night. But they didn't need any more. Spurred by the six turnovers created by its defense, the Cincy offense turned those mere 236 yards into 27 points. That's an average of just 8.74 yards for every point scored. And that tops the Scoreability Index through Week 1.
Conversely, the Baltimore-Cincy game proves for us the all-around beauty of the Bendability Index as a deceptively simple figure that takes into account the many different factors that lead to team-wide defensive efficiency and condenses them all into a single, easy-to-understand figure. The Ravens defense will continue to look stout by many measures, after surrendering just 236 yards to the Bengals Monday night. But their offense coughed up the ball six times, repeatedly putting the defense on, well, the defensive. As a result, the Bengals were able to score 27 points off those mere 236 yards.
Football is a game of interwoven parts, folks. And if you look at the statistics of individual units you won’t always get an accurate picture of how the team is performing. But if you look at our Quality Stats, such as our Scoreability and Bendability Indices, you understand how all the parts fit together.
And for Baltimore right now, they don't fiit together very well.
Fresh off Week 1 blowout victories, the Steelers and Patriots are tied with the second best offensive lines in football. The Giants somehow managed to finish No. 1, despite losing their quarterback and the game (a 45-35 defeat to the Cowboys).
The Chargers' big boys turned out the most dominating defensive performance of the week, in a 14-3 win over the defending NFC champions and a team that finished second in the league in scoring last year with 427 points (tied with Super Bowl champion Indy).
Despite fielding big names in their respective passing games, the Arizona-San Francisco Monday nighter was an aerial snoozer.
The Cardinals managed just 3.45 yards every time they stepped back to pass. The 49ers, who won 20-17, managed a league-low 3.00 yards every time they stepped back to pass. To put that passing ineptitude into context, keep in mind that 24 teams had a better average running the ball than Arizona did passing the ball; 28 teams had a better average running than San Francisco did passing. That's not pretty, folks.
The top of the list, meanwhile, is filled by the usual suspects: Dallas, New England and Indy were the best teams in the NFL at matriculating the ball downfield through the air last week, each averaging more than 9.60 YPA.
After stifling the surprisingly inept Arizona passing game, the 49ers lead the league in Defensive Passer Rating through Week 1 (41.1). The rest of the top of the list is generally filled by teams that faced bad passing teams: No. 2 Jacksonville faced the Titans, No. 3 Cincy faced the Ravens, No. 4 Pittsburgh faced the Browns.
Conversely, at the bottom of the list, are teams that faced opponents with great passing attacks: No. 32 Jets played the Patriots, No. 31 Giants played the Cowboys, No. 30 St. Louis played Carolina and their at-times incredibly productive QB Jake Delhomme (No. 1 all-time in post-season passing YPA) and No. 29 New Orleans faced the Colts.
