Before we get to the business of previewing the NFL 2007 kickoff special, there's a bit of a power struggle within the Cold, Hard Football Facts regarding opening the NFL season on a Thursday night
The traditionalist's view: The Thursday night opener is an idea whose time has come and gone.
It started as a way to pay tribute to 9/11 victims in September of 2002, but has become a slightly irritating mid-week fumble by a league that is usually on top of its game.
It's just not right, for a Football Nation that is devoted to Sunday, that the season begin on any other day. When the main course is as good as a Sunday full of hot, young gridiron goodness, no appetizer is needed.
The counter view: WOOOOOOOOOO!! S--- yeah! FOOTBALLLLLL!! WOOOOOOOOOOOO!! Let's get this mothaf----in' party started!
Like it or not, the fact is the entire CHFF dungeon will be watching Saints-Colts with rum-soaked glee tonight. And while we celebrate with a roasted pig, we offer a premature version of our "Friday Beer Run" picks segment.
Each week during the season, we look the six most competitive games of the week. Using only our Quality Stats as a guide
(click here for a refresher), the Cold, Hard Football Facts emerge and a projected score comes to light.
For the rest of our slate of big games, check back on Friday morning. Oh, and you might want to consider some Visine.
SAINTS AT COLTS
|
|
Teams |
|
|
11-7 (2006) |
Overall Record |
15-4 (2006) |
|
3-2 |
|
8-1 |
|
85.1 (23) |
|
80.4 (15) |
|
15.27 YPPA (17) |
|
14.77 YPPA (23) |
|
15.17 YPPS (13) |
|
14.22 YPPS (5) |
|
11.00 (5t) |
|
13.00 (11t) |
|
16.33 (16) |
|
24.67 (29t) |
|
7.47 (2) |
|
7.53 (1) |
|
+6 |
|
-6 |
|
52.5 |
|
52.5 |
Note: records include playoffs, stats through regular season only.
This was the Super Bowl everyone wanted to see, and why not – the Colts and Saints were 1-2 in the all-important Yards Per Pass Attempt category in 2006. The No. 1 team won the Super Bowl. The No. 2 team played in the NFC conference title game. And although the Saints tossed veteran Joe Horn out of town like he was a fast-food wrapper, they still have the great passing game. So do the Colts, who lost left tackle Tarik Glenn but gained rookie slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez.
Another characteristic both teams shared in 2006 was horrific run defense. The Colts were dead last, allowing 5.33 YPA. The Saints tied for 30th, allowing 4.94 YPA.
So, both teams can pass like hell, and neither team can stop the run. Gotta mean we're ready for an old fashioned scoring fast, right?
Well, maybe. The over/under of 52.5 is quite high – in the 38 combined games played by the Colts and Saints last year, only 12 went over 52.5. That's 31.7 percent, a number most bettors will kill for.
And, remember that Week 1 is traditionally low-scoring. Last year, only one of the 16 matchups went over 50 points, and 12 of 16 stayed under 40. In 2005, four of the 16 went over 50 points, in 2004 it was three. So we'll take the under.
As to the winner, the Colts were basically a better version of the Saints last year. With home-field advantage, a celebratory crowd and a killer Quality Record, the big edge goes to Indy.
Take the under, and the Colts to cover.
The score: Colts 30, Saints 20.
