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2007 Preview: AFC West
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 4, 2007
The AFC West were the best division in football last year ... if you ignore the stinking pond scum that was the 2-14 Oakland Raiders. The Chargers were a juggernaut (in the regular season), the Chiefs made the playoffs, and the Broncos were the Broncos, which means always in the hunt.
What does 2007 hold for the West? Two playoff spots in the AFC, running backs running wild and a whole lot of old-school rivalry.
Sounds good to us.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
(last year's record: 14-2; 4-2 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to New England in divisional round)
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
4 |
1 |
2 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
7 |
13 |
Major additions:
None.
Major subtractions:
LB Donnie Edwards (Kansas City)
Draft choices:
1 (30) Craig Davis, wr, LSU
2 (37) Eric Weddle, db, Utah
3 (96) Anthony Waters, lb, Clemson
4 (129) Scott Chandler, te, Iowa
5 (172) Legedu Naanee, wr, Boise St.
7 (240) Brandon Siler, lb, Florida
SAN DIEGO SUCKS BECAUSE:
With the season on the line, they threw the ball. We're still not 100 percent sure how San Diego offensive coordinator Cam Cameron got a head coaching job and Marty Schottenheimer got the boot after what went down in San Diego's loss to New England in the 2006 playoffs. If you're a Charger fan with selective amnesia, the game was tied 21-21 with 4:30 left when LaDainian Tomlinson – L.T., for short – ran for a long five yards on first down. The Patriots looked tired; L.T. had 123 yards on 23 carries. So, it's ride LT to the end zone, right? Nah. They threw on second down (miss) and then called timeout just to throw to Eric "My Hands are Coated With Crisco" Parker on third. Dropsie! The Patriots get the ball back with plenty of time, kick the winning field goal, and the rest is history. Including MartyBall.
SAN DIEGO RULES BECAUSE:
There's more talent there than on American Idol. Wait, that sounds like an insult. OK, pretend that American Idol is actually jam-packed with talent and you get the comparison. The Chargers have been on fire in the draft since they picked L.T. and Drew Brees in 2001. It hasn't all been gravy (Sammy Davis No. 1 in 2003), but the Chargers have been incredibly successful on draft day. In 2004 alone, they added six starters (QB Philip Rivers, DE Igor Olshansky, C Nick Hardwick, LB Shaun Phillips, T Shane Olivea, K Nate Kaeding) and supersub RB Michael Turner. San Diego has the game's most dynamic offensive talent in L.T. and on defense in Shawne Merriman. Oh, and Norv Turner. Forgot about him.
CHARGER SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Head coach Norv Turner. When your head coach has a career record worse than that of Rich Kotite, the man who killed two franchises, who else would you expect to be sitting here? No one since Barry Switzer has been handed such an amazing opportunity ... or had his ability to lead the ship questioned more often. There's good reason for incredulity: Turner is just 58-82-1 (.415) after nine years in Washington and Oakland. Kotite's career record was 40-56 (.417) after seven years with the Eagles and Jets. Both men went 1-1 in the postseason. Turner should get a shot at a third playoff game. But until he proves his record is a fluke, he's going to watch his balls shrivel up on that cold seat all the way through to January.
WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 "Real Wins" (based on point differential): 12.1 (fourth)
2006 Quality point differential: +7.4 PPG (3rd)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: C+
While the Chargers were dominant last year, they actually ranked behind the Patriots, Ravens and Bears in "Real Wins" – and they did it against an easy schedule. Might help explain why they folded so fast in the postseason. The schedule this year is tougher (so is the AFC West), and they've lost their entire coaching staff without adding anything to a pass defense that was just OK last year. This is still a playoff team, but they'll have to win on the road if they want to fulfill their Super Bowl dreams.
Cold, Hard Prediction: 11-5, tied 1st in AFC West
DENVER BRONCOS
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
23 |
17 |
8 |
25 |
14 |
8 |
12 |
21 |
Major additions:
QB Patrick Ramsey (N.Y. Jets)
RB Travis Henry (Tennessee)
WR Brandon Stokley (Indianapolis)
TE Daniel Graham (New England)
G Montrae Holland (New Orleans)
DT Dan Wilkinson (Miami)
DE Simeon Rice (Tampa)
CB Dre' Bly (Detroit)
P Todd Sauerbrun (New England)
Major subtractions:
QB Jake Plummer (retired/traded)
RB Tatum Bell (traded to Detroit)
T George Foster (traded to Detroit)
LB Al Wilson (released)
DT Michael Myers (Cincinnati)
Draft choices:
1 (17) Jarvis Moss, de, Florida
2 (56) Tim Crowder, de, Texas
3 (70) Ryan Harris, ot, Notre Dame
4 (121) Marcus Thomas, dt, Florida
DENVER SUCKS BECAUSE:
Sports "expert" Woody Paige works there. If we ever read anything this ass-clown wrote for the Denver Post (which otherwise has some good football writing), he'd surely be a regular member of Pigskin Detention. Instead, we only get to hear him yapping on ESPN during the day while we're trying to perfect our buzz – and he's killing it. We're not sure who he's got pictures of, but hopefully he'll be contained to the Denver area exclusively before too long. Sadly, we hear there's a job opening for a hack in Boston ...
Mike Shanahan really is a genius. Not only did Shanahan transform John Elway from a talented underachiever to an all-time great, he barely skipped a beat when Elway retired. The Broncos haven't won it all without Ol' Horse Teeth taking snaps, but they've had six top-10 scoring offenses in eight years with Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and a lot of running backs playing somewhere else right now. Shanahan has fielded just one losing season in 12 with Denver (6-10 in 1999). They remain a perennial postseason contender (hosted the AFC title game in 2005) and are one of the four members of the AFC power elite, along with Indy, New England and Pittsburgh, that dominate the NFL right now.
These four teams have won nine of the last 12 AFC titles and 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Fans in Denver are frettting right now over a series of losses this pre-season, but Denver will be right there in the mix come January.
BRONCO SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
DT Sam Adams. In addition to being named after delicious beer, Adams is going to have to play as big as his 350-pound frame for the Broncos to be special. The Broncos have added plenty of outside rushers, but it'll largely be up to Adams to make sure the middle is plugged. Adams, with his sixth team since 1999, will pair with Alvin McKinley at DT for Denver and try to earn himself another contract for 2008.
WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 "Real Wins" (based on point differential): 8.4 (14th)
2007 Quality strength of schedule: 16th easiest
The Broncos probably had the best offseason of anyone, as evidenced by their nice, rosy round A in the Fillability Index. They got younger (top two draft picks) and better (Simeon Rice) on the D-line, while adding Dre Bly to the secondary. Also, the addition of Travis Henry as a No. 1 back should pay some dividends, although the Broncos averaged a robust 4.41 YPA in 2006 without him. If Jay Cutler plays well, with a QB rating in the 80s, this team could win 12-13 games – remember, Jake Plummer was incredibly poor last year (68.8 passer rating) and the Broncos still needed a Week 17 choke vs. San Fran to miss the playoffs. That mistake won't be repeated in 2007.
Cold, Hard Prediction: 11-5, tied 1st in AFC West.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
15 |
15 |
9 |
22 |
16 |
12 |
18 |
18 |
Major additions:
G Damion McIntosh (Miami)
DT Alfonso Boone (Chicago)
LB Napoleon Harris (Minnesota)
LB Donnie Edwards (San Diego)
S Jon McGraw (Detroit)
LS J.P. Darche (Seattle)
Major subtractions:
WR Dante Hall (traded to St. Louis)
G Will Shields (retired)
T Jordan Black (Houston)
DT Ryan Sims (traded to Tampa)
LB Kawika Mitchell (Giants)
CB Lenny Walls (St. Louis)
Draft choices:
1 (23) Dwayne Bowe, wr, LSU
2 (54) Turk McBride, dt, Tennessee
3 (82) DeMarcus Tyler, dt, N.C. State
5 (148) Kolby Smith, rb, Louisville
5 (160) Justin Medlock, k, UCLA
6 (196) Herbert Taylor, g, TCU
7 (231) Michael Allan, te, Whitworth
KANSAS CITY SUCKS BECAUSE:
Damon Huard is the quarterback. Ever heard of a quarterback getting his first shot at "the man" status at the age of 34? No. Because it doesn't happen. The Chiefs already had an over-seasoned QB in town, Trent Green, but he'd actually proven himself over a period of years. His solid half-season of 2006 aside, all that Huard is proven is that he can handle a clipboard and generally resemble the New England Patriots logo. How can the Chiefs, with an old defense and a soon-to-be crippled RB Larry Johnson, think that Huard is good enough for another run at the playoffs?
KANSAS CITY RULES BECAUSE:
Damon Huard is the quarterback. There aren't many underdogs starting at quarterback in the NFL, and certainly none with Huard's resume. Who else can say they backed up Dan Marino and Tom Brady? He also has a pair of Super Bowl rings to admire if things ever get lonely in KC (NE 2001 & 2003). Over Huard's 10-year career, he's amassed a season's worth of stats – and they're damn good:
318 for 533 (59.7%), 3,569 yards, 6.7 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT, and a rating of 85.17
If he can post similar numbers in 2007, he might just keep his job.
CHIEF SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
QB Damon Huard. See above. He's a Cinderella story and a walking punch line all in one ... and depending on which way he goes, so will the Chiefs' season.
WHAT DO THE FACTS TELL US?
2006 "Real Wins" (based on point differential): 8.5 (13th)
2006 Quality point differential: -0.8 PPG (9th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: C
The Chiefs certainly seem like a .500 team. Even with handing Larry Johnson the ball somewhere like 1,000 times last year (actually 416) and making a vast defensive improvement under Herm Edwards, the Chiefs were lucky to get into the playoffs. They haven't made strides in the offseason, and the second year is unlikely to be the charm for Huard and/or untested backup QB Brodie Croyle. If they win their close games, they could sneak into the dance again ... but more likely they'll be the team throwing up in the bushes and getting led off in cuffs.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 7-9, third in the AFC West.
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
32 |
32 |
29 |
31 |
3 |
18 |
25 |
1 |
Major additions:
QB Daunte Culpepper
QB Josh McCown (Arizona)
FB Justin Griffith (Atlanta)
RB Dominic Rhodes (Indianapolis) WR Mike Williams (Detroit)
TE Tony Stewart (Cincinnati)
C Jeremy Newberry (San Francisco)
Major subtractions:
QB Aaron Brooks (released)
WR Randy Moss (Patriots)
T Langston Walker (Buffalo)
Draft choices:
1 (1) JaMarcus Russell, qb, LSU
2 (38) Zach Miller, te, Arizona St.
3 (65) Quentin Moses, de, Georgia (cut)
3 (91) Mario Henderson, ot, Florida St.
3 (99) Johnnie Lee Higgins, wr, UTEP
4 (100) Michael Bush, rb, Louisville
4 (110) John Bowie, db, Cincinnati
5 (138) Jay Richardson, de, Ohio St.
5 (165) Eric Frampton, db, Washington St.
6 (175) Oren O'Neal, rb, Arkansas St.
7 (254) Jonathan Holland, wr, Louisiana Tech
OAKLAND SUCKS BECAUSE:
See "Offense, 2006." The Raiders were bad in 2004 and 2005, but they brought it to a new low last year. How bad was QB Andrew Walter? He turned the ball over 20 times while throwing a whopping three touchdowns – numbers we haven't seen since Namath was quarterbacking from a wheelchair in 1976. The Raiders offense ranked 32nd in yards and in points, and scored 10 points or fewer in half of its games. They scored 12 touchdowns all year on offense – LaDainian Tomlinson scored 13 TDs by himself in November! Just Puke, Baby!
OAKLAND RULES BECAUSE:
You can't take away the memories. The recent slide notwithstanding, the Raiders have provided more thrills and joy than just about any team in the NFL over the past 40 years. Biletnikoff. Madden. Stabler. Bo Jackson. Otis Sistrunk. Lester Hayes.Tim Brown. Silver. Black. Bruises. Parties. Football. The Autumn Wind. The Raiders ship is taking on water in a hurry, but at least Al Davis will have plenty to reflect upon if/when he ever gives up the ghost and becomes a passionate spectator rather than a decision maker.
RAIDERS SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
None. How much pressure can there possibly be coming off a season where guys barely knew what play they were running? Sure, Daunte Culpepper has something to prove, No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell is on the express train to bust-ville and 16-year-old head coach Lane Kiffin will try to show he's not too young for the job. But, generally, anything above total wretched failure would be a bonus in Oaktown.
WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 "Real Wins" (based on point differential): 2.7 (32nd)
2006 Quality point differential: -13.4 PPG (28th)
Ouch. The Raiders have a coach barely old enough to shave and the toughest quality schedule in the league. Not a great combo, especially when you scored as many total touchdowns as the Cowboys' backup running back did in 2006 (Marion Barber 16, Raiders 16). But there is a defense in Oakland, and the offense will be better just because it has to be. The Raiders aren't going to win a lot of games, but they'll make it uncomfortable for their betters.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 5-11, 4th in AFC West
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