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Well, what's to be said? The NFC South is a division in utter disarray. The Falcons last year were worse than most people realized (outscored an average of 28-14 with an 0-5 record against Quality Opponents). And their off-season has been a disaster, marked by the pending incarceration of their franchise player. Tampa Bay sucked last year, and has had to overhaul the entire squad. Carolina, following their Super Bowl run in 2003, has never quite lived up to the hype. And then there's the new America's Team from New Orleans. The Saints excited everyone last year with their star-studded offense, but the defense had fatal flaws that the organization has done little to address.

 

It adds up to, perhaps, the worst division in football. Here's the whole division broken down and stripped apart like a Mercedes on the side of the Cross Bronx Expressway.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

(last year's record: 8-8; 3-2 vs. Quality Opponents)

 

 

 

QB David Carr (Houston)

 

WR Keyshawn Johnson (released)

LB Chris Draft (St. Louis)

LB Vinny Ciurciu (Minnesota)

 

1 (25) Jon Beason, lb, Miami

2 (45) Dwayne Jarrett, wr, Southern Cal

2 (59) Ryan Kalil, c, Southern Cal

3 (83) Charles Johnson, de, Georgia

4 (118) Ryne Robinson, wr, Miami (Ohio)

5 (155) Dante Rosario, te, Oregon

5 (164) Tim Shaw, lb, Penn State

7 (226) C.J. Wilson, db, Baylor

 

CAROLINA SUCKS BECAUSE: 
The franchise has never had a decent running back. In their one season of true glory, the Super Bowl run of 2003, the Panthers got a 1,444-yard, 4.5-per-carry effort from Stephen Davis. Other than that, Carolina’s running game has received a lot of respect but very little impressive production. In fact, it’s been on par with their uniforms – ugly. They have been in the bottom five league-wide in yards-per-carry four of the last seven seasons, and haven’t been in the top half of the league once in that span. Even in their 2003 season, they averaged just over 4.0 YPA, the standard for averageness.

 

CAROLINA RULES BECAUSE:
Coach John Fox knows defense. From his Fred Flinstone-like head to his constantly gum-chewing jaw, Fox look and persona reeks of a manly toughness. And so do his defenses. Excluding the 2004 season, when the Panthers suffered a series of devastating injuries, he’s had the Panthers in the top 10 in fewest points and yards allowed. From 1998-2002, he had three top-10 scoring defenses as the N.Y. Giants’ defensive coordinator. Although Fox’s Panthers have suffered from over-hype syndrome, the fact is that he took over a 1-15 team in 2002 and transformed it into a highly competitive organization. His regular-season record is a respectable 44-36 record, while he’s cranked out a 5-2 (.714) postseason mark, behind only New England’s Bill Belichick (13-3; 8.13) and Washington Hall of Famer Joe Gibbs (17-6; .739) among active coaches.

PANTHER SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Defensive tackle Kris Jenkins. Keeping blockers occupied (and off Julius Peppers) has sent the massive Jenkins to three Pro Bowls. Last year, he and Maake Kemoeatu teamed up inside for a stout defensive middle: Carolina ranked 6th in our Defensive Hog Index last season. But the back seven wasn’t as good as the front four, and the absence of MLB Dan Morgan kept the solid Carolina D from bailing out its weak O. Jenkins, 28, wanted a new contract, but instead came to mini-camp pushing 400 pounds. He’s in shape (for him) now, but will the money issues affect a player known for a lot of emotional highs and lows?

WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6.9 (20th)
2006 Quality point differential: minus-1.6 PPG (10th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: C
2007 Quality strength of schedule: tied for 3rd easiest

 

The Panthers were a very weak 8-8 team last year, with a real-win number of 6.9 against one of the weakest schedules in football. However, they played well against Quality Opponents (3-2), didn’t get worse in the offseason, and welcome back injured starters T Travelle Wharton, C-G Justin Hartwig and MLB Morgan. With another easy schedule on the books, a new offensive coordinator (Jeff Davidson) and an option behind Jake Delhomme in David Carr, we’re going to have to fall into line with the lemmings and predict success for the Panthers in 2007.

COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 9-7, tied for 1st in NFC South 

 

 

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

(last year's record: 10-6; 2-1 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to Chicago in NFC title game)

 

Where they ranked in 2006

 

 

TE Eric Johnson (San Francisco)

S Kevin Kaesviharn (Cincinnati)

LB Brian Simmons (Cincinnati)

CB Jason David (Indianapolis)

 

WR Joe Horn (Atlanta)

G Montrae Holland (Denver)

LB Danny Clark (Houston)

S Omar Stoutmire (Washington) 

 

1 (27) Robert Meachem, wr, Tennessee.

3 (66) Usama Young, db, Kent St.

3 (88) Andy Alleman, g, Akron.

4 (107) Antonio Pittman, rb, Ohio St.

4 (125) Jermon Bushrod, ot, Towson.

5 (145) David Jones, db, Wingate.

7 (220) Marvin Mitchell, lb, Tennessee.

 

NEW ORLEANS SUCKS BECAUSE:
Joe Horn was kicked out of town. The NFL is referred to as the “No Fun League,” but perhaps the “No Feelings League” would be more appropriate. Horn was N’Awlins through and through, active in the post-Katrina community and the greatest receiver in Saints history (four 1,000-yard seasons). And although he was injury-plagued in 2005 and 2006, he was also very productive in the Saints’ new passing game last year. He averaged 67.9 YPG, which would have put him over 1,000 again had he not missed six games. He also generated a career-best 18.4 yards per reception (37 for 6799). He wanted to come back, but the Saints treated him like an old pair of Mardi Gras beads: they tossed him off a Bourbon Street balcony, only to watch as he was greeted by the big boobs in Atlanta.

 

NEW ORLEANS RULES BECAUSE:
It’s New Orleans. America's greatest destination for eatin’, boozin’, whorin’ and big-time football events will never be the same, but it's still marching on – kind of like a late-career Joe Montana; battered and bruised, barely able to get out of bed, yet almost getting the Chiefs to the Super Bowl with a bunch of no-names. Montana will always be a legend. So will N'Awlins.

 

SAINT SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
RB Reggie Bush. Everything about the 2006 Saints season was a bonus, and the fact that Bush didn’t really live up to his hype didn’t trouble anyone wearing gold and black facepaint. But the Saints won’t breeze back to the NFC title game if Bush repeats his 3.6-yard-per-rush average in 2007. The Saints didn’t improve a so-so defense lowlighted by one of the worst run defenses in history. And now they will be facing a first-place schedule – growth from Bush is a must for the party to continue at the Superdome.

WHAT THE FACTS TELL US: 
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 10.3 (6th)
2006 Quality point differential: plus-5 PPG (5th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: F
2007 Quality strength of schedule: tied for 13th easiest. 

 

The Saints of 2006 were a surprise, but no fluke – they played well against scrubs and contenders alike, and had the best offense in the NFC. But their defense (31st in yards-per-carry allowed) was average at best, and they didn’t do much to make it better. Four games against the Bucs and Falcons will probably be enough to get them to the postseason, but it’s no sure thing. Take away the sleeper factor and the emotion of the fans, and the Saints won't have an easy road to get back to where they were a year ago.

 

 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

(last year's record: 4-12; 1-6 vs. Quality Opponents)

 

Where they ranked in 2006

 

 

Major additions:

QB Jeff Garcia (Philadelphia)

RB B.J. Askew (Jets)

TE Jerramy Stevens (Seattle)

G Matt Lehr (Atlanta) 

T Luke Petitgout (New York Giants)

DE Kevin Carter (Miami) 

LB Cato June (Indianapolis)

CB Sammy Davis (San Francisco) 

 

DE DeWayne White (Detroit)

 

1 (4) Gaines Adams, de, Clemson.

2 (35) Arron Sears, g, Tennessee.

2 (64) Sabby Piscitelli, db, Oregon St.

3 (68) Quincy Black, lb, New Mexico.

4 (106) Tanard Jackson, db, Syracuse.

5 (141) Greg Peterson, dt, N.C. Central.

6 (182) Adam Hayward, lb, Portland St.

7 (214) Chris Denman, ot, Fresno St.

7 (245) Marcus Hamilton, db, Virginia.

7 (246) Ken Darby, rb, Alabama.

TAMPA BAY SUCKS BECAUSE:
The Devil Rays infect the entire city with contagious suckitude. Look, we hate to bring up baseball this close to real NFL games, but the Devil Rays are an embarrassment to all human kind. They infect everything they touch – including the Bucs – with pathetic ineptitude. Remember how the Bucs lost 10-plus games from 1983-94, the longest such run in NFL history? Well, the D-Rays are on a similar quest – they’ve lost 90-plus games in every single one of their nine seasons, and a 10th is just 12 guaranteed losses away. At least the weather is nice … oh, wait, the Devil Rays play in a freaking DOME. Even Derrick Brooks tackling the opposing pitcher 12 times a game couldn’t help the D-Rays.

TAMPA BAY RULES BECAUSE:
Last year’s starting QB might not even make the team. You have to respect a team that gets poor QB play one year and reacts by bringing in every available passer this side of George Blanda. Poor Bruce Gradkowski, who was gutty but god-awful (65.9 passer rating), is third on the depth chart behind Jeff Garcia and spleen-less Chris Simms, but could be passed by Luke McCown. And if Jake Plummer (Bucs property) decides to put the bong down and play football, Gradkowski wouldn’t even be up for a job on the practice squad. 

 

RB Cadillac Williams. Williams had two months in 2006 where he lived up to his name somewhat. In October and November (8 games), he cranked out 590 yards on 141 carries – a decent 4.18 average per attempt comparable to his promising rookie season. But in the other six games he played in September and December (he missed the last two games with injury), Cadillac was all Yugo – 84 carries for 208 yards, a ridiculous 2.48 yard average. If Williams can stay above the 4.0 line – and stay healthy – he’ll get another chance to rev his engine in Tampa. If not, the former No. 5 overall pick is headed to the scrap heap.

 

2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 3.6 (31st)

2006 Quality point differential: minus-13.2 PPG (27th)

2007 Fillabilty Grade: B

2007 Quality strength of schedule: tied for 22nd easiest.

The Bucs were a mess last year – they were probably even worse than their 4-12 record, with the worst offense in the NFC and a defense that finally acted its age. They didn’t rank in the top half of the league in any of the statistical categories listed above. Their No. 21 rank in scoring defense was the first finish outside the top 10 since 1995 – a hell of a run, and a tribute to defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin. The Bucs drafted 10 players and added a slew of veterans in free agency. At the very least, it's a lot of bodies to throw at a lot of problems. The influx of newcomers, combined with their QB play going from terrible to acceptable, points to improvement – don't forget, this was a playoff team in 2005.

 

ATLANTA FALCONS

(last year's record: 7-9; 0-5 vs. Quality Opponents)

   

 

 

QB Joey Harrington (Miami)

WR Joe Horn (New Orleans)

G Toniu Fonoti (Miami)

FB Ovie Mughelli (Baltimore)

LB Marcus Wilkins (Cincinnati) 

 

QB Michael Vick 

QB Matt Schaub (Houston)

FB Justin Griffith (Oakland)

WR Ashley Lelie (San Francisco)

G Matt Lehr (Tampa Bay) 

DE Patrick Kerney (Seattle) 

LB Ed Hartwell (Cincinnati) 

 

1 (8) Jamaal Anderson, de, Arkansas

2 (39) Justin Blalock, g, Texas

2 (41) Chris Houston, db, Arkansas

3 (75) Laurent Robinson, wr, Illinois State

4 (109) Stephen Nicholas, lb, South Florida

4 (133) Martrez Milner, te, Georgia

6 (185) Trey Lewis, dt, Washburn

6 (194) David Irons, db, Auburn

6 (198) Doug Datish, ot, Ohio State 

6 (203) Daren Stone, db, Maine

7 (244) Jason Snelling, rb, Virginia

ATLANTA SUCKS BECAUSE:
Where do we start? You want to start with the fact that their star QB is a dog electrocutor? Or because they play in front of the least-passionate fans since the Rhein Fire? Or because they change their uniforms every five years? Or because they have been just flat-out, no-holds-barred terrible since joining the league in 1966? How’s nine winning seasons in 41 years sound? Not so good, right? We could go on and on, but we’d prefer to detail why this specific Atlanta Falcons team sucks.

ATLANTA RULES BECAUSE:
Alge Crumpler is a bad mofo. Despite being the only viable option in the Atlanta passing game over the past three or four years, Crumpler has put up four straight Pro Bowl seasons. His numbers aren’t as flashy as those from San Diego’s Antonio Gates, unless you look at them in context of the offenses. Crumpler’s 2,131 yards since 2004 are 25.7 percent of Atlanta’s total; Gates’ 2,989 yards are 28 percent of San Diego ’s total. Crumpler’s 19 TDs are 34.5 percent of Atlanta’s total, while Gates’ 32 TDs are 40 percent of the Chargers’ total. Gates is better, but he’s also put together three of the best years in TE history. Crumpler is in the ballpark.

FALCON SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
RB Warrick Dunn. There’s not going to be a whole lot of pressure on Atlanta this year – failure is expected, and you almost get the sense that owner Arthur Blank thinks the franchise deserves its public flogging. But Dunn, as one of the NFL’s unofficial spokesman and a 30-year-old running back to boot, is in an interesting spot. Can he hold the team together with his leadership and/or keep his job in front of Jerious Norwood?

WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6.9 (20th)
2006 Quality point differential: minus-13.8 PPG (29th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: D
2007 Quality strength of schedule: 24th easiest.

It’s tough to even consider 2006 when assessing the 2007 Falcons. Michael Vick is gone, a new coach is in place – this is a totally different group. This overhaul could be a good thing, since the 2006 Falcons were fairly bad – as evidenced by their dreadful 0-5 record against Quality Opponents. They were outscored 2-to-1 in those five games against winning teams. But these changes are sign of serious problems. Vick-bashing aside, his running ability was the only good thing about the 2006 Falcons – and it’s gone now. QB Joey Harrington is a proven failure, and the mediocre-at-best defense got no better. Things are so bad that they’ll probably win 10 games just out of spite, but the Cold, Hard Football Facts certainly point to doom and gloom.