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2007 Preview: NFC West
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 1, 2007
The NFC West is all about potential these days. Arizona, St. Louis and San Francisco all seem to have the "potential" to step up and become a winning team. Seattle, the NFC champ just two years ago, seems to have the "potential" to move back into the realm of conference elite after an injury-filled 9-7 campaign in 2006.
But potential doesn't carry a lot of weight around here. Let's put it this way: you're going to be an awfully lonely dude if you walk into the Pleasure Dome tonight with nothing but a wallet filled with potential.
But one of these four teams have to make a move, don't they? Well, it doesn't have to be much of a move.
Lest we forget, Seattle won the division last year with a 9-7 record and a -7 point scoring differential.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
26 |
24 |
6 |
29 |
26 |
32 |
19 |
26 |
Major additions:
WR Ashley Lelie (Atlanta)
NT Aubrayo Franklin (Baltimore)
LB Tully Banta-Cain (New England)
CB Nate Clements (Buffalo)
S Michael Lewis (Philadelphia)
WR Darryl Jackson (Seattle)
Major subtractions:
TE Eric Johnson (New Orleans)
C Jeremy Newberry (Oakland)
DE Lance Legree (Tampa Bay)
DT Anthony Adams (Chicago)
Draft picks:
1 (11) Patrick Willis, lb, Mississippi.
1 (28) Joe Staley, ot, Central Michigan.
3 (76) Jason Hill, wr, Washington St.
3 (97) Ray McDonald, de, Florida.
4 (104) Jay Moore, lb, Nebraska.
4 (126) Dashon Goldson, db, Washington.
4 (135) Joe Cohen, dt, Florida
5 (147) Tarell Brown, db, Texas.
6 (186) Thomas Clayton, rb, Kansas St.
SAN FRANCISCO
SUCKS BECAUSE:
The 49ers let all of the great ones go. In our perfect world, the all-time NFL greats finish their careers in the cities where they became famous. But the 49ers are known for sending their stars packing – Ronnie Lott, Joe Montana, Roger Craig. When the odometer rolled into six digits, it was off to the used car lot. This tradition even extended to Jerry Rice, who had the last laugh after getting the cold shoulder following the 1999 season. While Terrell Owens was ripping the franchise apart, Rice had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in
Oakland
… and the Niners have had one playoff win in the seven Rice-less seasons. Of course, not all great players leave San Francisco at the end of their career. Some come to San Francisco for the final days ... like O.J. Simpson for example.
SAN FRANCISCO RULES BECAUSE:
They paid instant and classy tribute to Bill Walsh. The 49ers organization has taken some major hits with the change to the
York
ownership group, but the way they handled the death of legendary Bill Walsh was nothing but first class. They got all the old Niner greats together for a preseason tribute, and announced that the team would now be playing its home games on Bill Walsh Field. Would have been nice to have Bill Walsh Stadium, but that corporate ship has sailed – so Walsh Field is the next best thing.
NINER SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT
RB Frank Gore. Gore was a one-man wrecking crew for San Fran in 2006, with 2,180 of the team’s 5,062 net yards – 43.1 percent, the highest number in the league. He also averaged 5.4 YPA, one of the best figures ever for a 1,500-yard rusher. So, what’s he do for an encore? Well, repeat those incredible numbers, for one, since the Niners were not a great team even with his production a year ago. If they want to take the step forward everyone is projecting, Gore will have to be unstoppable again … but with a hand injury and the ire of opposing coordinators standing in his way.
WHAT DO THE FACTS TELL US?
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 5.1 (tied for 28th)
2006 Quality point differential: -15 PPG (30th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: B
Would you believe San Francisco won more games against Quality Opponents (three) than any team in the NFC last year? We wouldn't lie to you. In fact, only Jacksonville, San Diego and Indy (a list which includes two of the best teams in football in 2006) won more, with four each.
The 49ers get rewarded with one of the easiest schedules in football. Coupled with a rising-star quarterback and a God-awful division where a 9-7 record won out last year, a run at the division title makes as much sense as dollar bills and strippers. Look at it this way, if San Fran can improve by just three games over last season, while facing what appears to be an easier slate of games, they can definitely carry the weak NFC West.
A lot of challenges stand in the way: San Francisco's real wins figure of 5.1 last year wasn't pretty. They also ranked 32nd in scoring defense, which, for the statistically impaired, means they sucked hard. They did improve in the offseason, and their young nucleus is a year older and better, but the hand injury to Gore looms fairly large. Also remaining to be see is how much they'll miss offensive guru Norv Turner (he may be a sucky head coach, but he's been a very successful offensive coordinator). But you don't have to be good to win the NFC West. You just have to be somewhere above not awful. And San Francisco should be better than not awful this year.
COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 10-6 tied for first in the NFC West.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
(last year's record: 9-7; 1-3 vs. Quality Opponents; lost to Chicago in NFC divisional round)
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
19 |
14 |
14 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
22 |
16 |
TE Marcus Pollard (Detroit)
DE Patrick Kerney (Atlanta)
S Brian Russell (Cleveland)  S Deon Grant (Jacksonville)
Major subtractions:
TE Jerramy Stevens (Tampa Bay)
C/LS J.P. Darche (Kansas City)
S Ken Hamlin (Dallas)
Draft picks:
2 (55) Josh Wilson, db, Maryland.
3 (85) Brandon Mebane, dt, California.
4 (120) Baraka Atkins, de, Miami.
4 (124) Mansfield Wrotto, g, Georgia Tech.
5 (161) Will Herring, lb, Auburn.
6 (197) Courtney Taylor, wr, Auburn.
6 (210) Jordan Kent, wr, Oregon.
7 (232) Steve Vallos, ot, Wake Forest
The Seahawks have been the most mediocre franchise imaginable. No one’s going to lump the Seahawks in with perennial losers like
Arizona
or
Detroit
. But they’ve spent the bulk of their 32-year existence sitting right in the middle of the pack. Since the schedule expanded to 16 games in 1978, here’s how it breaks down (not counting strike seasons): two terrible seasons (5-11 or worse), two great seasons (12-4 or better) and a whopping 23 seasons between 6-10 and 10-6. Over the course of its history, Seattle is 12 games shy of .500 (236-248).
SEATTLE RULES BECAUSE:
Four straight seasons in the playoffs. This doesn’t sound overly impressive, but these days it is – the Seahawks are the only NFC team that can boast four straight playoff berths. In fact, only the Colts have a longer active streak (five years), while the Patriots are tied with four straight.
SEAHAWK SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
DT Rocky Bernard. DT Marcus Tubbs was badly missed last year after a breakout 2005.
Seattle's run defensive
was fifth in the NFL in yards per carry (3.6) its Super Bowl season, but that lofty ranking fell to 28th after allowing 4.6 YPA in 2006 with Tubbs mostly sidelined. Now, with Tubbs likely out for the year, the Seahawks need Bernard (and 4-3 middle mate Chartric Darby) to perform past 2006 levels.
WHAT DO THE FACTS TELL US?
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 7.8 (15th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: B-
Seattle was a mess last year, with neither QB Matt Hasselbeck nor RB Shaun Alexander ever getting right after suffering injuries. But they squeaked into the playoffs as the NFC West champ and were playing well enough to beat
Dallas
and give
Chicago
a fight. In the division of favorite young teams, the Seahawks have two things the competition doesn’t – a respectable defense (NFC West-best 19th overall), and a Hall of Fame-bound head coach. They'll battle neck and neck with San Francisco for the division title, and should probably still earn a spot in the NFC playoffs, where a 10-6 record last year earned New Orleans a first-round bye (over in the AFC, 12-4 New England was a No. 4 seed).
COLD HARD PREDICTION: 10-6, tied for 1st in NFC West
ST. LOUIS RAMS
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
6 |
10 |
17 |
4 |
23 |
28 |
31 |
8 |
Major additions:
WR Drew Bennett (Tennessee)
WR Dante Hall (Kansas City)  TE Randy McMichael (Miami)
LB Chris Draft (Carolina)
S Todd Johnson (Chicago)
S Mike Rumph (Washington)
CB Lenny Walls (Kansas City)
Major subtractions:
RB Marshall Faulk (retired)
WR Kevin Curtis (Philadelphia)
CB Travis Fisher (Detroit)
Draft picks:
1 (13) Adam Carriker, de, Nebraska.
2 (52) Brian Leonard, rb, Rutgers.
3 (84) Jonathan Wade, db, Tennessee.
5 (139) Dustin Fry, c, Clemson.
5 (154) Clifton Ryan, dt, Michigan St.
6 (190) Ken Shackleford, ot, Georgia.
7 (248) Keith Jackson, dt, Arkansas.
7 (249) Derek Stanley, wr, Wisconsin-Whitewater.
ST. LOUIS
SUCKS BECAUSE:
The Rams have never heard that “defense wins championships.” The Los Angeles Rams had some pretty fine defenses over the years, especially in the late 1960s-early 1970s (the Fearsome Foursome years). But in their early days in L.A., and then again since the move to
Missouri,
it’s been all offense, all the time.
In their 11 years in
St. Louis
, the Rams have had a better rank in scoring offense over scoring defense nine times (with one tie). The only two finishes in the top 10 on scoring defense led to two Super Bowl berths and one win. The defense has failed to rank in the top half of the league in any of their other nine seasons in St. Louis.
ST. LOUIS RULES BECAUSE:
Torry Holt is incredible. Torry Holt is the best receiver in football and, as the Cold, Hard Football Facts have long proved, has been for years. He has ranked in the top 10 in receiving yards for seven straight seasons, a feat topped only by Jerry Rice (11 years). Since 2003, when Marc Bulger took over for good as Rams QB, Holt’s average season is downright astounding: 102 catches, 1,397 yards and 10 TDs. About the only hole in Holt’s game can be found in the playoffs, where he’s averaging 63 yards and 4.7 catches per game (85 yards and 5.7 catches in regular season).
RAM SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
QB Marc Bulger. Bulger has been the latest in a long-lived sports phenomenon – the underrated player that everyone seems to fall in love with at once and becomes overrated. Bulger had a breakout season with just 11 turnovers (8 INT, 3 fumbles), but also took a lot of sacks (366) and saw his yards-per-attempt drop from 8.0 to 7.3. He’s a solid quarterback, but has also had two of the best receivers in NFL history for his entire career. Also, he’s fallen short in the red zone – the Rams have been in the top 6 in yards produced the last three years, but finished 18th, 11th and 10th in points. With a $10 million-a-year contract and a higher profile, Bulger is being asked to become an honest-to-goodness NFL superstar. How he fares in that role will go a long way toward determining the Rams’ success.
WHAT DO THE FACTS TELL US?
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 7.6 (17th)
2006 Quality point differential: -6.5 PPG (18th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: C-
2007 Quality strength of schedule: 10th easiest
The Rams were a pretty weak 8-8 team last year, with a real wins number of 7.6 against the easiest schedule in the league. They added fringe veterans but didn’t upgrade their defense in the offseason, and their much-ballyhooed additions on offense boil down to a slight upgrade at backup receiver and the addition of questionable TE Randy McMichael. For the Rams to get over .500, RB Stephen Jackson and the offense will have to duplicate or surpass their success of a year ago – and that won’t be easy.
COLD HARD PREDICTION: 8-8, third in the NFC West
How they ranked in 2006
|
Total O |
Score O |
Rush O |
Pass O |
Total D |
Score D |
Rush D |
Pass D |
|
18 |
19 |
30 |
10 |
29 |
29 |
16 |
30 |
RB Terrelle Smith (Cleveland)  C Al Johnson (Dallas)
T Mike Gandy (Buffalo)
S Terrence Holt (Detroit)
CB Roderick Hood (Philadelphia)
Major subtractions:
T Leonard Davis (Dallas)
G Chris Liwienski (Miami)
DE Fred Wakefield (Oakland)
CB David Macklin (Washington)
Draft picks
1 (5) Levi Brown, ot, Penn St.
2 (33) Alan Branch, dt, Michigan.
3 (69) Buster Davis, lb, Florida St.
5 (142) Steve Breaston, wr, Michigan.
7 (215) Ben Patrick, te, Delaware.
ARIZONA SUCKS BECAUSE:
Nothing wins in the desert except the turkey vulture. If you’re not familiar with the turkey vulture, it’s a massive bird of prey with a six-foot wingspan that feeds on the dead in the Southwestern plains. Suffice it to say, there have been plenty of lifeless Cardinals to be snagged in the
Arizona
deserts since the move from
St. Louis
in 1988. How’s one winning season in almost two decades sound? Not too good, huh? Meanwhile, seven head coaches have been picked clean of their dignity and self respect in Arizona, with newcomer Ken Whisenhunt hoping to break the trend.
The franchise's pre-Arizona history is not in his favor, either. The list of Cardinals coaches who have tried and failed before Whisenhunt is long and amazing: Curly Lambeau, Joe Stydahar, Don Coryell, Bud Wilkinson, Gene Stallings and Dennis Green all had success elseswhere. All failed to win anything when employed by the worst franchise in NFL history.
So good luck, Whisenhunt. And watch out for those turkey vultures.
ARIZONA RULES BECAUSE:
Their stadium field moves, While naming your new stadium after an online college isn’t exactly a boon to NFL tradition, the University of Phoenix stadium is awfully cool. It’s got a retractable roof (which is nice when it’s 118 degrees in October), a movable wall that makes a 3-D opening when the roof is closed, and a natural grass field that rolls into the facility when its needed. If the rest of the NFL follows suit with this plan, no one will have to play on turf anymore – and that is a boon to NFL tradition.
CARDINAL SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. It’s not too uncommon when a new offensive-minded head coach retains the defensive coordinator. Worked for Mike Ditka and Buddy Ryan in Chicago, and Whisenhunt hopes it’ll work in Arizona. But Pendergast is coming off a season where the Cardinals ranked 29th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed – not exactly stuff to put on the resume. If the Cardinal offense goes from promising but average to excellent, Pendergast will need to prove his new boss’ faith was well-founded. Otherwise, Arizona will remain nothing more than a highly flawed team who believes the can win with just an offense. How's that working for you, St. Louis and Cincy?
WHAT DO THE FACTS TELL US?
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6 (25th)
2006 Quality point differential: -7.1 PPG (21st)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: C-
The Cardinals are everyone’s darling ... at least if you define "everyone" as "'pundits' and blind fans who don't realize you need a team complete in all phases of the game to become a true threat in the NFL." But there is reason for optimism. Dennis Green was a bust as a head coach, and seemed to hold the team back. The Cardinal defense was eighth in yards allowed in 2005, and a return to that type of form is possible with good health and solid contributions from a dozen defensive newcomers. If the Cardinal offense, which was 19th in yards and scoring a year ago, takes a leap forward, the playoffs are possible. But a lot has to happen right, and since history shows us that things don’t happen right in the desert …
COLD HARD PREDICTION: 6-10, fourth in the NFC West
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