Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: 2007 Preview: NFC North

CHICAGO SUCKS BECAUSE:
Rex Grossman is starting over Brian Griese. We said before the Super Bowl that Grossman had a chance to make a leap forward with a strong performance – but that a stinker would likely be the end for him. Apparently, the Bears weren’t paying attention to the career arcs of young Super Bowl losers like David Woodley, Tony Eason and and Neil O'Donnell. Meanwhile, Griese seems to be a good fit for a team that has offensive weapons everywhere but at QB. In his last 16 starts (with Tampa ), Griese threw 27 TDs (and 19 INTs), with a passer rating of 91.6. That’s pretty damn good – especially when Grossman’s mark last year was 73.9. With a career passer rating of 84.5, Griese is 17th on the all-time list, one spot ahead of Hall of Famer Jim Kelly.

CHICAGO RULES BECAUSE:
$100 on them to win the Super Bowl will win you $1,500. We got burned picking the Bears to win last year’s Super Bowl, but they did blaze through an outmatched NFC to get there – and had the ball with the chance to go ahead in the fourth quarter. But public opinion, at least in the eyes of Vegas, has them as one-year wonders – they’re 15-1 shots to win it all this year, the same odds you can get on the 49ers. Call us crazy, but when the conference champions get healthy and upgrade their team, we’ll take 15-to-1 on our money any day.

BEAR SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
RB Cedric Benson. The word on Benson through two years with the Bears hasn’t been great. Distraction on the sidelines, slightly soft on the field. He was terrible in the playoffs last year (38 carries, 104 yards), and his nine career receptions suggest he’s not great in the passing game. But he’s the man in Chicago after two years as a backup – elevated to the top spot like Larry Johnson in Kansas City was, with spectacular results in LJ’s case. No one’s expecting that, but if he can come close to his 4.1 career per-carry average, fans will be happy.

DETROIT SUCKS BECAUSE:
Do we even have to finish this sentence? No playoff wins since 1991. No championship since 1950. Play in a dome. Matt Millen is still the GM. Despite horrible defense, went offense 1-2 in the draft. Record of 24-72 since start of 2001 season. Ruin Thanksgiving with their horrific play. Is that enough? Good. We were getting a little queasy there.

DETROIT RULES BECAUSE:
Barry Sanders is still young enough to play. Sanders was the last good thing about this franchise, and we were somewhat stunned to learn that he’s only 39 years old – just 13 months older than Brett Favre. Is it too late for the Lions to fire Matt Millen and convince Barry to get in shape for a comeback? The man averaged five yards per carry for his career! How much worse than Tatum Bell/Kevin Jones/T.J. Duckett could he be?

LION SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
G Damien Woody. For all the heat the Lions deservedly receive, they do have the makings of an excellent offense. Woody, a Pro Bowl center with New England, is the best lineman Detroit has – if he can stay healthy and in shape. He only played five games in 2006, and the Lions were dead last in our Offensive Hog Index rating. They made moves to upgrade with G Edwin Mulitalo and T George Foster, but a return to form from Woody is key - for both the Lions and Woody, who signed a restructured one-year deal this summer and will be a 30-year-old free agent next offseason. Woody is already off to a rough start, missing time with an ankle injury, and will be pushed by Stephen Peterman.

GREEN BAY PACKERS
(last year's record: 8-8); 1-6 vs. Quality Opponents)

2006 rankings

Total O	Score O	Rush O	Pass O	Total D	Score D	Rush D	Pass D
9	22	23	8	12	25	13	17

2006 Quality Stat rankings

Scoreability	Off. Hog	Pass YPA	Bendability	Def. Hog	Def. Pass Rating
27	10	17	29	t6	8

Major additions:

CB Frank Walker (N.Y. Giants)

Major subtractions:

RB Ahman Green (Houston)

TE David Martin (Miami)

Draft picks:

1 (16) Justin Harrell, dt, Tennessee

2 (63) Brandon Jackson, rb, Nebraska

3 (78) James Jones, wr, San Jose State

3 (89) Aaron Rouse, db, Virginia Tech

4 (119) Allen Barbre, ot, Missouri Southern

5 (157) David Clowney, wr, Virginia Tech

6 (191) Korey Hall, lb, Boise State

6 (192) Desmond Bishop, lb, California

6 (193) Mason Crosby, k, Colorado

7 (228) DeShawn Wynn, rb, Florida

7 (243) Clark Harris, te, Rutgers

GREEN BAY SUCKS BECAUSE:
The Packers can’t beat a good team. Green Bay was a respectable 8-8 in 2006, but only because they played the league’s other non-entities with style and panache. Against the big boys, they were crap on a cracker. The Packers were 1-6 vs. Quality Opponents last year, and were outscored by an average of 15.6 points a game – only Houston was worse. This came on the heels of a 1-8 record against quality opponents in 2005. If you’re scoring at home, that’s 10-6 vs. also rans, 2-14 vs. good guys. Since the Cold, Hard Football Facts reinvented the concept of the win-loss record by introducting our Quality Wins Quotient during the 2004 season, the Packers are a dreadful 2-17 vs. teams with winning records.

GREEN BAY RULES BECAUSE:
Their unrealistic, fact-blind, Favre-worshipping fans always think they have a winner. One of the most popular stores in Minnesota ’s Mall of America is … yes, the Green Bay Packers store. Judging from our most recent visit, it blew the Vikings store away – and this was during the Pack’s 4-12 season of 2005. No matter where you go in Wisconsin , you hear barely a peep about Brett Favre’s descent toward the bottom of the passer rating list, and if you ask them who’s going to win the Super Bowl? That’s easy. The Packers! We're just waiting for Favre to break George Blanda's all-time INT record. With 273 career picks, Favre is just four shy of history.

PACKER SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:

QB Brett Favre. Although no one but worshippers at the altar of Cold, Hard Football Fact would suggest that Favre could lose his job, the fact is that the Packers have a solid young nucleus – and Favre isn’t part of it. He’s been poor the last two seasons (cumulative passer rating: 71.8), and that’s with his receivers leading the NFL in yards after the catch in 2006. Combine this with third-year man Aaron Rodgers’ great summer (34 for 52, 347 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT), and this could be the year Favre loses his job. Here's hoping, for the good of pigskin-kind.

WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6.2 (2nd)
2006 Quality point differential: minus-15.6 pts per game (31st)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: B-minus.
2007 Quality strength of schedule: 5th easiest.

The Packers were a lucky 8-8 team last year – their real wins number was 6.2, 23rd in the NFL. We’ve already documented the Packers’ struggles vs. quality teams, and they’ve got seven more games with them this year, at least based upon last year's records (plus three vs. 8-8 squads). They stood pat in free agency, and Favre is a year closer to the retirement he should’ve embraced in 2004. Packer optimism notwithstanding, this isn’t a good team.

COLD, HARD PREDICTION: 6-10, 3rd in NFC North

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

(last year's record: 6-10; 1-4 vs. Quality Opponents)

2006 rankings

Total O	Score O	Rush O	Pass O	Total D	Score D	Rush D	Pass D
23	26	16	18	8	14	1	t31

2006 Quality Stat rankings

Scoreability	Off. Hog	Pass YPA	Bendability	Def. Hog	Def. Pass Rating
25	t11	26	26	10	5

Major additions:

TE Vicanthe Shiancoe (N.Y. Giants)

WR Bobby Wade (Chicago)

S Mike Doss (Indianapolis)

QB Kelly Holcomb (Philadelphia)

Subtractions:

QB Brad Johnson (Dallas)

C Jason Whittle (Buffalo)

T Mike Rosenthal (Miami)

TE Jermaine Wiggins (Jacksonville)

LB Napoleon Harris (Kansas City)

CB Fred Smoot (Washington)

Draft picks:

1 (7) Adrian Peterson, rb, Oklahoma.

2 (44) Sidney Rice, wr, South Carolina.

3 (72) Marcus McCauley, db, Fresno St.

4 (102) Brian Robison, de, Texas.

5 (146) Aundrae Allison, wr, East Carolina.

6 (176) Rufus Alexander, lb, Oklahoma.

7 (217) Tyler Thigpen, qb, Coastal Carolina.

7 (233) Chandler Williams, wr, Florida International.

MINNESOTA SUCKS BECAUSE:
Management gave away the franchise's identity and got nothing back. From 2000-2004, the Minnesota Vikings had two things keeping them from the NFL’s basement: Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss. Over that five year span, the Vikings defense was 24th, 26th, 30th, 23rd and 26th in scoring defense – yet Minnesota managed to go 39-41 and win two playoff games. This was all thanks to Moss and Culpepper, who combined for six Pro Bowl berths and 62 touchdowns. Then, poof! No more purple magic. As soon as there were signs of trouble, the Vikings punted. Moss goes for a No. 7 overall pick (bust WR Troy Williamson) and linebacker Napoleon Harris (gone to Kansas City ). Culpepper goes for a second-round pick (turned into maturing lineman Ryan Cook). And in 2006, the Vikings had the No. 26 scoring offense in the NFL – their worst rank in franchise history – and a 6-10 record. Good plan.

MINNESOTA RULES BECAUSE:
The Vikings’ run defense is spectacular. In 2006, the Vikings turned in the third-best performance by a run D in the Super Bowl era, holding opponents to 2.83 yards per carry. This included one of the most incredible runs ever – over a 4-game stretch, Minnesota held the 49ers (Frank Gore), Packers (Ahman Green), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Cardinals (Edgerrin James) to a combined 71 carries for 103 yards – a 1.5 yard average. Of course, they also managed to lose three of those four games, which about sums up the Vikings’ problems.

VIKING SHIVERING ON THE COLD SEAT:
G Steve Hutchinson. The Vikings shelled out $49 million for Hutchinson , but the results weren’t exactly stellar. Minnesota ’s O-line was a respectable tied for 11th in the Offensive Hog Index, but the Vikings didn’t transform into the second coming of the 1962 Packers or anything. They averaged 4.12 yards per carry (14th), and were 19th running up the middle at 4.33 a carry. If the Vikings’ plan (run a lot, play great defense) is going to work, Hutchinson needs to team with LT Bryant McKinnie for a dominant left side – something that didn’t happen in 2006.

WHAT THE FACTS TELL US:
2006 “Real Wins” (based on point differential): 6.6 (22nd)
2006 Quality point differential: minus-6.4 pts per game (17th)
2007 Fillabilty Grade: D
2007 Quality strength of schedule: 9th easiest.

Minnesota started off strong at 4-2, but went 2-8 down the stretch as their defense went from excellent (14.2 PPG allowed through six games) to poor (24.1 PPG allowed over the last 10). The offense was consistently bad, finishing 26th in scoring despite seven return touchdowns. They also lose defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin, who was obviously an excellent young coach since the shrewd Steelers signed him up. The Vikings shook things up in the receiving corps, but still have one of the worst sets of wideouts in football. Breakout performances by QB Tarvaris Jackson and RB Adrian Peterson could get this team to .500, but that’s a lot to ask of an untested passer and a time-sharing runner.

COLD, HARD PREDICTION:5-11, 3rd in NFC Central